The global financial crisis has had a certain impact on China's exports, stock market, real estate and other aspects. The Chinese government has introduced policies such as 4 trillion investment, the adjustment and revitalization plan for ten major industries, and the reform of the medical and health system to expand domestic demand, maintain economic growth, and adjust the industrial structure. Under the influence of relevant favorable policies of the Chinese government, many domestic industries are showing signs of recovery, among which the automobile industry and the real estate industry, which are boosters of economic growth, have obvious signs of recovery. I believe that through the synergistic effects of the government and the market, China's economy will maintain stable growth in 2009.

Keywords: The financial crisis expands domestic demand, the automobile industry and the real estate industry recover

1. The impact of the financial crisis on the Chinese economy

Triggered by the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis The global financial crisis has had a profound impact on the global economy since the second half of 2007. As an indispensable part of the world economy, the Chinese economy has also suffered a certain degree of impact.

First of all, the domestic stock market has been hit. China's Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached a peak of more than 6,100 points in October 2007 and then fluctuated downwards. The lowest point reached more than 1,600 points, and finally hovered around 2,400 points. Although the central bank has successively introduced loose monetary policies such as lowering deposit and loan interest rates, the stock market still has not improved significantly. Second, the weakness of the U.S. dollar has caused intangible losses in foreign exchange reserves. By the end of 2008, China's total foreign exchange reserves had reached US$1.946 billion, of which US bonds accounted for more than half. The depreciation of the US dollar will undoubtedly cause China to suffer huge losses in its foreign exchange reserves. Third, exports declined. Affected by factors such as shrinking external demand, rising trade protectionism and appreciation of the RMB, my country's exports from labor-intensive industries such as textiles, clothing, shoes and hats have declined significantly since the second half of 2008, and many small businesses with poor structures have closed down. Fourth, GDP growth slowed down. As one of the "troika" driving my country's economic growth, exports play a very important role in my country's economic development. The obstruction of exports seriously affects the growth of GDP. According to statistics, China's GDP growth rate was 13% in 2007, and exports contributed 3 percentage points to GDP growth. However, China's GDP growth rate was only 9% in 2008, and exports only contributed 0.8 percentage points to GDP growth. Fifth, the impact on employment in our country. The reduction in foreign demand and the sluggish corporate economy have led to the loss of many jobs and an increase in unemployment. In the labor market, the employment demand in the fourth quarter of 2008 dropped by 9.3 percentage points year-on-year. The ratio of the number of employees recruited by employers through the labor market to the number of job seekers entering the labor market dropped to a low of 0.85. The registered unemployment rate in urban areas The rate also increased by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year. Sixth, the adjustment of the real estate market. The slowdown in world economic growth has led to a shrinking of my country's external demand, a decline in corporate efficiency, and a decline in investment willingness and capabilities. Increasing downward pressure on economic growth, shrinking wealth in the stock market, and a sharp decline in the confidence index of entrepreneurs in the real estate industry have also prompted continued adjustments in the real estate market.

2. The Chinese government introduced response policies

In the face of the financial crisis, the Chinese government decisively introduced corresponding policies to promote economic growth and reduce the impact of the financial crisis on my country's real economy. The following are several major policies introduced:

(1) 4 trillion investment to stimulate domestic demand. A large part of China's rapid economic growth relies on exports. The financial tsunami has sharply shrunk external demand and the rise of international trade protectionism has caused severe setbacks in China's exports. Faced with this situation, if China wants to maintain its original economic growth rate, it must take advantage of domestic demand. China has a population of 1.3 billion, accounting for 1/5 of the world's population. Moreover, the Chinese do not advocate advanced consumption like Americans do. Every household has a certain amount of savings, so there is a lot of consumption potential that can be tapped. The state has introduced policies to stimulate domestic demand precisely to develop domestic consumption potential and overcome this difficulty. Since government investment and government consumption have always been strong, but residents' consumption is insufficient, and the social security and service system is relatively weak, these 4 trillion funds can only be invested in education, medical care, unemployment security, housing security and infrastructure construction. Only in this way can the greatest effect be exerted. The following are the key investment directions and capital budgets of this 4 trillion investment: 400 billion yuan for affordable housing such as low-rent housing and shantytown renovation; 370 billion yuan for livelihood projects and infrastructure such as rural water, electricity, gas houses, and railways, highways, airports, water conservancy, etc. RMB 1.5 trillion for major infrastructure construction and urban power grid transformation, RMB 150 billion for the development of medical, health, education, culture and other social undertakings, RMB 210 billion for energy conservation, emission reduction and ecological engineering, RMB 370 billion for self-sufficiency innovation and structural adjustment, and RMB 1,000 billion for post-disaster recovery and reconstruction. It can be seen from the above investment ratio that the state invests relatively heavily in infrastructure construction, post-disaster reconstruction, people's livelihood projects and housing security.

(2) Adjustment and revitalization plan for the ten major industries. The country has formulated revitalization plans for ten major industries including the automobile industry, steel industry, textile industry, shipbuilding industry, equipment manufacturing industry, electronic information industry, light industry, petrochemical industry, non-ferrous metal industry and logistics industry. The plan for the automobile industry was first introduced, focusing on five aspects: First, we must cultivate the automobile consumer market.

From January 20 to December 31, 2009, a 5% reduced vehicle purchase tax will be levied on passenger cars with an engine capacity of 1.6 liters and below. From March 1 to December 31, 2009, the state has arranged a tax of 5 billion yuan , provide a one-time financial subsidy to farmers who scrap three-wheeled vehicles and low-speed trucks in exchange for light trucks and purchase minibuses with a displacement of less than 1.3 liters. Increase subsidy funds for the scrapping and renewal of old cars, and eliminate unreasonable regulations that restrict the purchase of cars. Second, we must promote the restructuring of the automobile industry. Support large automobile enterprise groups in their mergers and reorganizations, and support key auto parts companies in expanding their scale through mergers and reorganizations. Third, we must support enterprises’ independent innovation and technological transformation. In the next three years, the central government will arrange a special fund of 10 billion yuan to focus on supporting enterprise technological innovation, technological transformation and the development of new energy vehicles and parts. Fourth, we must implement the new energy vehicle strategy and promote the industrialization of electric vehicles and their key components. The central government will arrange subsidy funds to support the demonstration and promotion of energy-saving and new energy vehicles in large and medium-sized cities. Fifth, we must support automobile manufacturers in developing independent brands, accelerate the construction of export bases for automobiles and parts, develop the modern automobile service industry, and improve automobile consumer credit. Among these five major measures, the first one has the greatest impact on consumers and businesses. "Reducing or exempting" the purchase tax on small-displacement cars not only benefits consumers (buying a car worth 100,000 yuan can save about 8,500), but the increase in consumer confidence will also increase the demand for cars, thereby increasing the demand for cars. Businesses see hope.

Although the real estate industry was not included in the top ten revitalizing industries in the end, considering the indispensable role that the real estate industry plays in stimulating domestic demand and increasing national fiscal revenue (according to relevant estimates, the real estate industry will One million square meters of construction will affect the employment of 300,000 people, reduce the demand for steel by 20,000 tons, reduce the demand for doors and windows by 80,000 sets, and reduce the demand for sanitary ware in my country by about 20,000 sets. The proportion has reached about 1/4, and the upstream and downstream industries involve more than 50 industries). In 2008, the country adjusted the tax policy on real estate three times. First, in March 2008, the construction and construction of low-rent housing and affordable housing were exempted and exempted. The relevant taxes in operation, as well as the reduction and exemption of relevant taxes involved in housing leasing; the second is that in November 2008, the deed tax rate for individuals purchasing ordinary houses less than 90 square meters for the first time was uniformly reduced to 1%, and the stamp tax and land value-added tax were exempted; the third This is the State Council Document No. 131 issued in December 2008, which stipulates that the business tax on housing transfers will be reduced or reduced temporarily for one year. And encourage local governments to introduce stronger rescue measures. Local governments also responded positively. On April 16, 2009, the Nanjing government issued 40,000 housing purchase vouchers totaling 2.4 trillion yuan. It is estimated that the housing purchase vouchers can boost commercial housing sales of approximately 4 billion yuan. The revitalization of real estate will directly boost demand for industries such as steel and cement, thus providing a large number of jobs. At the same time, the healthy growth of the real estate industry also contributes greatly to national fiscal revenue. Therefore, a considerable part of the country’s 4 trillion investment is related to the real estate industry.

(3) Medical and health system reform. On April 6, 2009, Xinhua News Agency was authorized to publish the "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Deepening the Reform of the Medical and Health System." The "Opinions" put forward the short-term goals of "effectively reducing the burden of residents' medical expenses and effectively alleviating the difficulty and expense of medical treatment", and "establishing and improving a basic medical and health system covering urban and rural residents to provide the public with safe, effective, convenient and affordable medical services." The long-term goal of “competitive medical and health services”. The 850 billion yuan investment in medical reform is used to ensure support for five key reforms: accelerating the basic medical security system, initially establishing a national essential drug system, improving the primary medical and health system, promoting the gradual equalization of basic public health services, and promoting the reform of public hospitals. Pilot. The reform of the medical and health system will effectively improve the medical security of low- and middle-income urban residents and farmers, weaken their need for preventive savings, and thus promote private investment and consumption.

3. The recovery of China’s economy

Under the influence of the government’s series of proactive fiscal policies, China’s economy is showing signs of recovery. According to survey data from the National Bureau of Statistics: the national business climate index in the first quarter was 105.6, down 1.4 points compared with the previous quarter, and the decline narrowed significantly (the fourth quarter last year dropped 21.6 points from the third quarter); the entrepreneur confidence index was 101.1, down 1.4 points from the previous quarter. It increased by 6.5 points in the last quarter; from January to February, the total retail sales of consumer goods was 2,008.04 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. As of the end of March, the balance of broad money supply (M2) was 53.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.51%. The growth rate was 7.69 percentage points higher than the end of the previous year and 5.11 percentage points higher than the end of the previous month. In addition, according to customs statistics, in March this year, my country's total import and export value was US$162.02 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 20.9%, of which exports were US$90.29 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 17.1%; imports were US$71.73 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%; the trade surplus for the month was 18.56 billion. US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 41.2%. The indicators show that my country's foreign trade has begun to show obvious signs of improvement.

Let’s take a look at the two major industries that support economic development: the automobile industry and the real estate industry.

The latest statistics released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers on April 9 show that under the dual effects of favorable national policies and seasonal cycles, my country's automobile sales reached 2.6788 million units in the first quarter of 2009, a year-on-year increase of 3.88%, with March hitting a new high. to 1.1098 million vehicles. In 2008, when the global automobile industry suffered a general setback, China's automobile sales reached 9.38 million units, second only to the United States. Considering that the country's policies to stimulate the economy are gradually taking effect and the automobile market has begun to pick up, it can be expected that China's total automobile output may exceed that of the United States in 2009. In the real estate industry, since February this year, the national property market has generally experienced a "Little Indian Spring" market with a sharp rebound in transactions. According to the 30 cities monitored by the China Index Research Institute, 24 cities saw an increase in residential transaction area in February compared with January. In March, the property markets in Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen experienced the warmest spring since 2008. The transaction volume of the property markets in the three places increased significantly compared with before. Among them, the Beijing property market has the largest transaction volume, with the number of first- and second-hand housing online signings being 15,034 and 19,973 respectively, an increase of 81.5% and 113.1% month-on-month. In terms of price, buildings in the three places also saw slight increases.

IV. Prospects for the future of China’s economy

From the series of policies introduced by the state to expand domestic demand, promote growth and adjust structure, as well as the changes that have occurred in various domestic industries under the influence of these policies We can see that China's economy is showing signs of recovery under the Chinese government's effective macroeconomic control. Although it is too early to draw conclusions about economic recovery, judging from the current situation, the Chinese government's goal of maintaining a GDP growth rate of 8 in 2009 is achievable. Not long ago, many foreign media viewed the G20 Summit in London as a G2 dialogue between China and the United States. It can be seen that China's economic status in the world has significantly improved, and the world has begun to pay attention to China's every move. The financial crisis may be a difficult challenge for China, but I think it is also a good opportunity. In 2009, when the global economy was generally sluggish (International Monetary Fund (IMF) President Kahn once said that the global economy will experience negative growth in 2009), China will be considered the country with the fastest economic recovery, and the recovery of the world economy requires China economic drive. Regardless of how great China’s role in driving the world economy is, as far as China is concerned, the Chinese government’s series of “combination punches” will gradually come into play in the next few years. I believe that under the combined influence of the "visible hand" of macro-control and the "invisible hand" of the market, China will surely maintain stable growth.