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How long will it take for the population to return to the normal fertility level after a cliff-like decline?
China's aging population is becoming more and more serious, and the birth rate of newborns is also declining. Since the two-child policy was fully liberalized on 20 16, the birth rate reached a small peak, and then it showed a downward trend intermittently.

Figure 1

The cause of population decline. China is a populous country. Why is the birth rate low? Personal summary has the following three reasons for your reference.

First of all, raising children is expensive.

In the past, the cost of raising a child was very low. The cost here refers not only to the economy, but also to time and emotion. But raising a child now is very expensive in terms of education cost and emotional cost.

With the continuous acceleration of social rhythm, the pressure of workplace competition is increasing. In order to prevent their children from being eliminated by society, many parents let their children participate in various interest classes from an early age.

Young parents' upbringing of their children is not only an interest class, but also nutrition. For example, all kinds of imported health products, all kinds of imported complementary foods and toys are not small expenses.

In order to give children better living conditions, parents work harder and spend less time with their children. Fast-paced and convenient parent-child time has become the norm, and children have emotional loss.

In the past, children could play in the vast nature, and older children took care of them. Nowadays, children shuttle from cram school to cram school and rely more on family feelings.

Figure ii

Then, the marriage rate is low.

There are more and more single older men and women. When they get married, they don't worry. They think that nothing is better than nothing, and they don't want to get married just to get married.

And the cost of getting married now is also very high. You need a house and a car. House prices are rising day by day, which has caused resistance for many young people to get married.

Some young people are afraid of marriage, which may be influenced by primitive families and think that marriage is a shackle. Divorce has become the norm now. Although divorce has increased the cooling-off period, it still cannot change the relationship between husband and wife.

The relationship between husband and wife is not harmonious, and the children are the direct victims. Living in a contradictory family for a long time, how can children feel the warmth of the family, so they are even more reluctant to become parents.

Figure 3

Finally, no one takes care of the children.

Giving birth to a child is a big deal for a family. Some families can give birth, but no one watches. Most women want to pursue their goals in life. They have suffered from all kinds of learning since childhood, and finally grow up and want to realize their own value.

If a family has one child, the elderly can help take care of the child, but if there are two children, women are bound to give up their careers. Most stay-at-home mothers have low status, no financial resources and are vulnerable to cold violence.

Therefore, it is not easy for a family to have another child. It contains all kinds of complicated situations, some from family, some from society and some from economy.

Figure 4

Ways to increase the population. Personally, if we want to fundamentally solve the problem of population decline, we must proceed from reality. The aging population is not only in China, but also in Japan, South Korea, Europe and other countries.

Some countries are caught in an aging cycle and their economies are stagnant. Some countries have good policies, but young people are unwilling to get married.

What if couples are encouraged to have a second child?

First, reduce the cost of childcare and give cash subsidies.

In order to support fertility, many countries take the form of fertility subsidies. Children will receive different subsidies at different stages every month to reduce the financial pressure on their parents.

You can also give children medical subsidies and extend the compulsory education time, which will reduce the cost of raising children, reduce the financial worries of couples and give birth to a second child more actively.

Figure 5

Then, improve the quality of child care services.

Many couples have to go to work, and their children can be sent to custody after primary school. However, when children are very young, they can only choose early education institutions, but the price of early education institutions is high and the service quality is difficult to guarantee.

The general institutional custody time is very short, which conflicts with parents' commuting time, especially in winter and summer vacations, when parents have to go to work and their children are left unattended.

Some parents only have two days off a month, and the time spent with their children is pitiful. In order to let their children have a good hosting environment, it is necessary to improve the quality of hosting services and reduce the cost of hosting.

Figure 6

Finally, provide flexible working hours for mothers.

Some mothers can't find jobs because their working hours are too fixed to take care of their children. If flexible work can be provided for mothers, it will not only reduce the economic burden, but also increase the number of employed people.

The working hours in general units are eight hours, and some even more. This is an obstacle for mothers, such as sending their children to and from school when they are sick, sending them to cram schools on weekends and so on. This is very difficult to complete.

Figure 7

It will take a long time for the population to return to normal. After the population decline, the aging is becoming more and more serious. China has introduced measures such as fully liberalizing the two-child policy and extending the retirement age, but the effect is not significant.

In order to solve the problem of birth rate, I personally think that we can proceed from the reality of the family, solve the worries of husband and wife about childbirth, and the population will return to normal just around the corner.