In the history of international finance, there have been three exchange rate systems, namely, the fixed exchange rate system under the gold standard system, the fixed exchange rate system under the Bretton Woods system and the floating exchange rate system.
1, the fixed exchange rate system under the gold standard
1880- 19 14 during the past 35 years, major western countries adopted the gold standard system, that is, gold coins of a certain color and weight were used as the currency in circulation, and gold coins could be freely cast, freely exchanged and freely imported and exported. Under the gold standard, the exchange rates of the two currencies are determined by the ratio of their respective gold contents-gold parity. For example, the gold content of a pound is 1 13.05438+05 green, and the gold content of a dollar is 23.22 green.
1=113.4438+05/23.22 = USD 4.8665.
As long as the gold content of the two currencies remains unchanged, the exchange rates of the two currencies will remain stable. Of course, this fixed exchange rate is also affected by the supply and demand of foreign exchange and the balance of payments, but the fluctuation of exchange rate is limited to the golden point. The gold delivery point refers to the border where gold is exported or imported from a country due to exchange rate fluctuations. The highest limit of exchange rate fluctuation is coinage parity plus transportation fee, that is, the gold export point; The lower limit of exchange rate fluctuation is the coinage parity minus the transportation fee, which is the gold import point.
When a country's balance of payments is in deficit and the foreign exchange rate rises above the gold export point, it will lead to gold outflow, reduced currency circulation, deflation and falling prices, thus improving the competitiveness of commodities in the international market. Output increases and input decreases, which leads to the balance of international payments; On the other hand, when there is a surplus in the balance of payments, the foreign exchange rate falls below the gold input point, which will lead to the inflow of gold, the increase of currency circulation, the rise of prices, the decrease of output and the increase of input, which will eventually lead to the recovery of the balance of payments. Due to the role of gold delivery point and price, exchange rate fluctuation is limited to a limited range, which plays the role of automatically adjusting the exchange rate, thus maintaining the relative stability of the exchange rate. In the 35 years before the First World War, the exchange rates of the United States, Britain, France and Germany never fluctuated.
19 14 When World War I broke out, countries stopped importing and exporting gold, and the gold standard disintegrated. Between the First World War and the Second World War, the currencies of various countries basically failed to abide by a universal exchange rate rule and were in a state of chaos. The 35 years of the gold standard system is the "golden age" for the prosperity of liberal capitalism. The fixed exchange rate system ensures the security of international trade and credit, facilitates the accounting of production costs, avoids the exchange rate risk of international investment, and promotes the development of international trade and international investment. However, the strict fixed exchange rate system makes it difficult for countries to implement favorable monetary policies according to their own economic development needs, which greatly restricts economic growth.
2. The fixed exchange rate system under the Bretton Woods system.
The fixed exchange rate system under the Bretton Woods system can also be said to be a fixed exchange rate system centered on the US dollar. 1944 In July, just before the victory of World War II, 45 allies of World War II held the "International Monetary and Financial Conference with Allies" in forest village, Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, USA, and adopted the Agreement of the International Monetary Fund and the Agreement of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development based on the White Plan put forward by American Assistant Treasury Secretary White. The Bretton Woods system established international monetary cooperation institutions (the International Monetary Fund and the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development, also known as the World Bank, were established in 1945 and 12), which stipulated the exchange rate system that countries must abide by and the measures to solve the imbalance of international payments, thus determining the international monetary system centered on the US dollar.
The exchange rate system under the Bretton Woods system is generally a "double-linked" system in which the US dollar is linked to gold and other currencies are linked to the US dollar. The details are as follows: The United States announced the gold content of the US dollar, 1 US dollar is 0.88867 1g, and the conversion ratio between US dollar and gold is 1 ounce of gold = 35 US dollars. Other currencies are linked to the US dollar according to their respective gold contents, and their exchange rates with the US dollar are determined. This means that the currencies of other countries are linked to the US dollar, and the US dollar has become the center around the currencies of various countries. The exchange rates of national currencies against the US dollar can only fluctuate within the limit of 65,438+0% above and below the parity, and after 65,438+0,65,438+0 months, it will fluctuate to 2.25% above and below the parity. Beyond this limit, central banks are obliged to intervene in the foreign exchange market and maintain the stability of the exchange rate. Only when a country's balance of payments is "fundamentally unbalanced" can it be allowed to depreciate or appreciate. If any member country needs to change parity, it must notify the IMF in advance. If the change range is lower than the old parity of 10%, the IMF should have no objection. If it exceeds 10%, it must be approved by the IMF before it can be changed. If a member country changes its currency parity without authorization in the face of IMF's opposition, the IMF has the right to stop the member country's right to borrow from the IMF.
To sum up, the fixed exchange rate system under the Bretton Woods system is essentially an adjustable pegged exchange rate system, which has the characteristics of fixed exchange rate and flexible exchange rate, that is, the exchange rate should remain stable in the short term, similar to the fixed exchange rate system under the gold standard system; However, when a country's balance of payments is fundamentally unbalanced, it allows adjustment at any time, which is similar to the flexible exchange rate.
197 1 On August 5, 2000, US President Nixon announced the depreciation of the US dollar and suspended the exchange of the US dollar against gold, and the Bretton Woods system began to collapse, although the 10 group reached the Smithsonian agreement in June of 5438+097 12, announcing the depreciation of the US dollar from 1 oz. The exchange rate parity range expanded from 1% to 2.5%, but by February of 1973, the dollar depreciated for the second time, and European countries and other major capitalist countries withdrew from the fixed exchange rate system one after another, and the fixed exchange rate system completely collapsed.
The disintegration of the fixed exchange rate system is mainly caused by the contradiction between supply and demand of US dollars and gold reserves. The exchange rate parity between currencies is only a reflection of the world economic situation in the early postwar period. With its strong economic strength and gold reserves, the United States overvalued the dollar and underestimated gold. With the economic recovery and rapid development of Japan and Western Europe, the hegemonic position of the United States has been declining, and the dollar disaster has aggravated the deterioration of gold supply and demand. In particular, in order to develop the domestic economy and cope with the balance of payments deficit caused by the Vietnam War, the United States has continuously increased currency issuance, making the dollar far below the parity of gold, making the official price of gold more and more the price that buyers are willing to pay. In addition, speculators in the international market seized the disintegration trend of the fixed exchange rate system and made huge bets on gold by borrowing dollars, further increasing the oversupply of dollars and the excess demand for gold. In the end, the US gold reserve faced a crisis of exhaustion and had to abandon the dollar gold standard, which led to the complete collapse of the fixed exchange rate system.
3. Floating exchange rate system
Generally speaking, since March 1973, the fixed exchange rate system centered on the US dollar has ceased to exist in the global financial system and has been replaced by a floating exchange rate system.
Most countries that implement floating exchange rate system are major industrial countries in the world, such as the United States, Britain, Germany and Japan. Most other countries and regions still implement the pegged exchange rate system, and most of their currencies are linked to the US dollar, Japanese yen and French franc.
After the floating exchange rate system is implemented, the legal gold content of currency or the parity of paper money with gold in other countries will not play any role. Therefore, the national exchange rate system tends to be complicated and market-oriented.
Under the floating exchange rate system, countries no longer stipulate the fluctuation range of exchange rate, and the central bank no longer undertakes the obligation to maintain the upper and lower limits of fluctuation. The exchange rates of various countries are the result of their own fluctuation and adjustment according to the foreign exchange supply and demand in the foreign exchange market. At the same time, the change of foreign exchange supply and demand caused by a country's balance of payments situation is the main factor affecting the exchange rate change-in countries with surplus balance of payments, foreign exchange supply increases, foreign currency prices fall, and exchange rates float downward; In countries with balance of payments deficits, foreign exchange demand increases, foreign currency prices rise and exchange rates rise. Exchange rate fluctuation is a normal phenomenon in the foreign exchange market. A country's currency exchange rate rises, which means currency appreciation and falls, which means depreciation.
It should be said that the floating exchange rate system is an improvement of the fixed exchange rate system. With the continuous reform of the global international monetary system, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) revised the terms of "IMF" on April 1. 0978 and took effect, and implemented the so-called "managed floating exchange rate system". Because the new exchange rate agreement gives countries a lot of freedom in the choice of exchange rate system, so countries have a variety of exchange rate systems, such as single floating, pegged floating, elastic floating, joint floating and so on.
(1). Single float. It means that the exchange rate of a country's currency is not fixed with any other currency, and its exchange rate is determined according to the supply and demand of foreign exchange in the market. At present, more than 30 countries such as the United States, Britain, Germany, France and Japan are floating independently.
(2) Pegged floating. A currency of one country keeps a fixed exchange rate with another currency and fluctuates with the fluctuation of the latter. Generally speaking, countries with unstable currencies can curb their inflation and improve the credibility of their currencies by linking them to stable currencies. Of course, adopting the pegged floating model will also make the country's economic development subject to the economic situation of the pegged country, thus suffering losses. At present, there are more than 100 countries or regions in the world that adopt the pegged floating mode.
(3) elastic float. It means that a country can freely float and peg the exchange rate within a certain elastic range according to its own development needs, or adjust the exchange rate according to a set of economic indicators, thus avoiding the defect of pegging the floating exchange rate and gaining more autonomy in foreign exchange management and monetary policy. At present, more than a dozen countries, such as Brazil, Chile, Argentina, Afghanistan and Bahrain, adopt flexible floating mode.
(4) joint floating. Refers to the national group to implement a fixed exchange rate for the internal currencies of member countries and a joint floating exchange rate for the currencies outside the group. Eu11country 1979 establishes the European monetary system and the European monetary unit (ECU). The currencies of various countries are linked to it, establishing exchange parity and forming a parity network. The fluctuation of national currencies must be controlled within the prescribed range. Once the warning line of exchange rate fluctuation is exceeded, the countries concerned should intervene in the foreign exchange market. 199 1 year, the EU signed the Maastricht Treaty and drew up the process table of European monetary integration. 199 1 day, the euro was officially launched and the European monetary integration was realized. Regional monetary groups like the European Union have emerged.
In the process of global economic integration, the dollar once dominated the world in international finance and is developing towards multipolarization. The international monetary system will develop towards the trend of free floating exchange rate, diversification of international reserves, financial liberalization and internationalization.