Anyone who has been to new york in China knows that new york is too old to be renovated! Taiwan Province Province certainly hopes that this wave can earn more "dollars" from Americans; What the mainland wants to see more is whether the "dollar" can still be used as money. The approval of this infrastructure plan means that the United States will release another 1 trillion dollars. Together with the previous infrastructure plan, the country will release another 5.7 trillion US dollars in the future. Where will this money come from?

Usually, there are three ways for the government to have no money: 1, borrowing (issuing government bonds); 2. Taxation (especially for the rich); 3, printing money (the most powerful in the United States). As of June this year, the "storm" of the huge debt ceiling of US$ 28.5 trillion hit, which could not be repaid according to the current situation of the country. Us treasury secretary yellen repeatedly shouted to the us government, suggesting that the country's debt ceiling should be raised or suspended as soon as possible to avoid default. According to statistics, the US national debt ceiling has been raised 78 times before, and this will be the 79th time. Therefore, the United States has announced that it will suspend the sale of new bonds from July 30, 2002 1 year, and now it is impossible to borrow money from other countries by selling American bonds, which has greatly affected the infrastructure plan of1trillion dollars just submitted.

When the US government has no money, what the Democratic President wants most is to levy a "rich tax". According to Inequality.org's data, the number of the richest 1% residents in the United States is about 3.29 million, and they control 42.5% of the wealth in the United States, while the remaining 57.5% of the domestic assets are divided among 325.7 million citizens. So it makes sense to operate on the rich; But these people are very resourceful. If you want to raise taxes, I'll leave.

The White Paper on American Enterprises in China published in May this year said that American enterprises in China believe that China is one of the largest and fastest-growing markets in the world and a major export market for American products and services. Most of the income of many leading American enterprises comes from China, and China is also an important source of a large number of products and parts with high quality and low price, which has brought tangible benefits to American producers and consumers. Members of the American Chamber of Commerce are generally positive about China's market growth potential, profit potential and business environment in China, and 75% of American enterprises are optimistic about China's economic recovery in the next two years. More than half of enterprises believe that the biggest business opportunities in China are the growth of domestic consumption and the rise of the wealthy middle class. In addition, with the economic growth and market-oriented reform in China, 85% of enterprises indicated that they did not intend to move their production or procurement out of China, 2/3 of American enterprises indicated that they planned to increase their investment in China on 20021,and 6 1% of enterprises thought that China would continue to open its market to foreign investment. In addition, half of the enterprises said that the investment environment in China is improving.

At present, the global economic recovery has not made much substantial progress, but inflation and other risks are approaching, including negative variables such as Delta COVID-19 variant, oil price fluctuation and short-selling of market fundamentals, especially the rapid spread of Delta variant virus, which has aggravated the possibility that the global economic recovery will definitely slow down, resulting in the global investor market being not optimistic about the economic growth prospects in the second half of 20021.

At this time, the United States will engage in large-scale infrastructure construction and frantically print dollars to buy raw materials and parts in the world for construction. Can the dollar profits received effectively counter the depreciation of the dollar? When an epidemic breaks out in a country and cannot be effectively prevented for a long time, people in the country are isolated, production is stagnant, and stocks are quickly consumed. In fact, it's a robbery with paper money. When the country's stocks are extremely scarce, paper money is as cheap as toilet paper, and inflation comes. Does this phenomenon exist in many countries now? But the impact of the dollar bubble goes far beyond that.

Although the clearing mechanism of SWIFT is a multinational multilateral organization in form, established according to Belgian law and owned by its members, the fact is that the United States arbitrarily uses its own "long-arm jurisdiction" created by Congress to overturn the provisions of the United Nations, and uses SWIFT as a pure American tool to "impose sanctions on any country and individual in the world"; As long as the White House unilaterally determines that any country can be cut off from SWIFT, so that the country can "be separated from the global financial system", it can't use US dollars for bilateral trade with any other country, or even conduct any other type of financial assets transaction and transfer.

At present, SWIFT clearing mechanism has been gradually cracked by CIPS in China, INSTEX in Europe and SPFS in Russia, and it is no longer a monopoly. On April 12, 2065438, the People's Bank of China fired the first shot of "dollar hegemony" and organized the development of an independent RMB cross-border payment system, namely the Cross-border Inter-bank Payment System (CIPS), further integrating the existing RMB cross-border payment and settlement channels and resources, improving the efficiency of cross-border settlement, and meeting the needs of global RMB internationalization development and improving transaction security. On October 20 19 10/3 1 day, Germany, France and Britain jointly announced the creation of INSTEX, as a trade settlement mechanism with Iran, to gradually replace the SWIFT revenue and expenditure settlement system, so as to maintain the "Joint Comprehensive Action Plan" and avoid US sanctions. Since CIPS was launched on June 20 15 and 10, there are 3 direct participants and 847 indirect participants. The actual business covers more than 60 countries and regions in the world/kloc-0, with a cumulative business of more than 4 million transactions, amounting to more than 60 trillion US dollars.

Since 20 18, Trump has launched a world-class trade war without warning and launched "economic sanctions", which has generally made Iran and other oil countries or traditional American economic allies who are deeply constrained by the dollar join the "dollarization" movement; In 2020, coronavirus pneumonia-19, the out-of-control epidemic in the United States accelerated the deepening and popularization of the "dollarization" movement. All countries are afraid that the United States will print dollars indiscriminately, plunder the resources of the world, and the future inflation sequelae.

Up to now, 53 countries in the world have publicly announced the adoption of dollarization policy, mainly using RMB or Euro for "local currency swap" or "local currency settlement". According to the position report of the U.S. Treasury Department, global central banks have seen a sharp net sell-off in 22 of the past 26 months, selling US debt 1. 1 trillion dollars; At the same time, global central banks have accelerated the diversification of foreign exchange reserves. Before 2020 10 month, global central banks bought more than 200 tons of gold, setting a record since 197 1 year when the US dollar was decoupled from gold. The acceleration of global selling of American debt is actually an irresistible trend of dollarization in various countries.

In less than a year, this development has shaken the "sole hegemonic currency status" of the US dollar and the "US sanctions" that once completely deterred the global international community. Central banks are increasingly inclined to use other currencies in international transactions, which poses a certain degree of competitive challenge to the US dollar and specifically reflects that the role of the US dollar in global economic operation is declining. According to the IMF COFER official foreign exchange reserve currency composition survey, in the fourth quarter of 2020, the proportion of US dollar reserves held by central banks in various countries dropped to 59%, which is the lowest level in the last 25 years. With the rapid spread of the global dollarization movement, the decline rate of US dollar reserves will soon fall below 40%.

In this regard, China and many Southeast Asian countries have begun to take self-protection measures! The first is to protect national security and greatly reduce the number of people entering the country. The second is to protect national assets, slow down physical exports and resource buyouts, and do not have to earn hard-earned foreign exchange as before. Build a high wall, accumulate grain widely, circulate internally, and settle accounts directly with "barter" or RMB to ensure that assets are not lost. Major producers such as Vietnam, India, Malaysia and Indonesia will also take similar containment measures.

The flood of dollars will cause inflation all over the world, and small depositors will be directly swallowed up by high inflation rate because they keep the fixed deposit interest rate of cash. Therefore, both countries and individuals should reduce their cash holdings, reserve more substantial assets, reduce three industries and favor one industry. In addition, to borrow the Book of Changes, a gentleman should save money and keep a low profile in order to take refuge.

(The author is the Secretary-General of Taiwan Province Belt and Road Association)