Influenced by the disappointing China trade account, most risky assets slowly weakened during the Asian session. The data shows that while the export growth rate exceeds expectations, the import situation is difficult due to sluggish domestic demand. Therefore, the market clearly concluded that the effect of China's recent easing policy was not as good as expected. We don't agree with this. On the other hand, the data shows that China's exports are developing in the right direction, mainly because exporters have found export markets outside Europe, especially the US market. In the first half of this year, the United States replaced the European Union as the main export destination of China. In short, it is not surprising that the market chooses to pay attention to the story of hard landing again, considering that negative emotions have been plaguing the market since the beginning of the European debt crisis.

In the face of today's data, we still believe that China's economy is unlikely to make a hard landing, although we won't be surprised if the GDP growth rate announced on Friday is lower than the current market expectation of 7.9%. China's recent easing policy to stimulate growth tells us that officials are worried about the health of China's economy. But part of the reason for the recent easing policy may be yesterday's inflation data. The government may already know the results of the inflation report and the GDP data. Even so, considering the convenience of knowing the data in advance in China and the recent downward trend of domestic economic data, Friday's GDP data is certainly likely to be disappointing. While China is making full use of growth stimulus policies to boost domestic demand, the disappointing GDP report may lay the foundation for China to introduce more easing policies later this year.

Ryan confirmed the facts reported in the tabloids in the morning, that is, to give Spain another year, its new financial target is: 2065438+6.3% in 2002 (previously 5.3%); 20 13 years 4.5% (3% before); 20 14 years 2.8%. It is rumored that the Spanish government will respond by promising to announce a package of spending cuts and tax increases of 30 billion euros on Wednesday. These and other issues will be discussed at the meeting of EU finance ministers later tonight, with the goal of reaching a final agreement on July 20th.

In other news, New Zealand's housing price index rose to a record high, while credit card spending increased. The house price index rose by 4.2% annually, while the monthly rate of credit card expenditure climbed by 0.3%. However, NZD did not respond positively to these data.

Risk assets fell after the European review, but this may not be the direct result of the market. On the contrary, investor sentiment usually drops after an unfounded rebound overnight, which has been the norm in the past few periods. AUD/USD was first boosted by export data, then completely controlled by weak import data, and quickly fell below 1.0200, and then continued to drop to the low point near 1.05438+055. EUR/USD didn't get much support at the level of 1.2300, so it soon began to weaken gradually, and then found some support near the opening price of the weekly chart. .