First, the impact on banks and insurance industry. First, the impact of the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers. Lehman's bankruptcy is a big loss for domestic banks. Up to now, the Lehman bonds held by the eight big banks are not completely counted at around 800 million US dollars. Among them, ICBC $65.438 +0.52 billion, BOC $65.438 +0.29 billion, China Merchants Bank $70 million, Bank of Communications $70.02 million, China Construction Bank $65.438 +0.08 billion, Industrial Bank $33.6 million and CITIC Group $65.438 +0.59 billion. Other banks are checking their Lehman bonds. Second, take over the influence of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. The core capital of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac is $83.2 billion, but it supports $5.3 trillion in debts and guarantees, with a leverage ratio of 62.5%. In other words, as long as there are 1.6% bad debts in the mortgage claims held by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the capital will be exhausted in essence and technically bankrupt. Secondly, the impact of AIG's disguised bankruptcy. AIG is the largest insurance company in the world, with total assets of $65,438 +0. 1 trillion. The Federal Reserve announced that it would provide $85 billion in emergency loans to American International Group (AIG), which was on the verge of bankruptcy. At the same time, the US government will hold 79.9% of the shares and have the right to veto the dividend income of ordinary and preferred shareholders. The loan will be guaranteed by all the assets of AIG. The loan term is 2 years, and the interest rate is 3 months libor interest rate (about 2.24%) plus 850 basis points. The overall loan interest rate is extremely high. This is actually forcing AIG to speed up the sale of assets, forcing it to sell assets for cash, which is not much different from bankruptcy. Will AIG's sale of global assets touch property insurance and life insurance business? At present, Singapore, China, Hongkong and other places have all experienced the wave of surrender to varying degrees, and the "surrender panic" in the Mainland also looms. Due to the high degree of marketization of China's insurance industry, foreign capital entered at the earliest time, and the risk prevention pressure is greater. China Ping An failed to invest in Fortis, which also made domestic investors see the direct transmission of overseas financial asset risks to China insurance industry.
Second, the impact on US dollar treasury bonds. Buying US Treasury bonds is one of the most important ways for China to use its huge foreign exchange reserves. The composition of China's foreign exchange reserves is roughly as follows: more than 500 billion US Treasury bonds, more than 370 billion US Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac bonds, more than 300 billion US short-term debts, more than 200 billion US investment control, more than 200 billion US subprime debts, more than 300 billion US dollars in cash or euro assets, and more than * * 654.38+0.9 trillion US dollars. According to the international capital flow report issued by the U.S. Treasury Department, in August 2008, China Bank held U.S. Treasury bonds amounting to 54 1 billion dollars; In September, China increased its holdings by US$ 43.6 billion, and its total holdings of US Treasury bonds reached US$ 585 billion, which has replaced Japan as the largest holder of US Treasury bonds. 65438+ 10, Bank of China continued to increase its holdings of US Treasury bonds substantially. According to American economist Setsel's estimation, the total amount of US Treasury bonds held by China's central bank has reached 750 billion US dollars, accounting for 35.4% of the total amount of US Treasury bonds held by foreign central banks. Japan's holdings decreased from $586 billion in August 2008 to $573.2 billion in September. Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis, the potential funds promised by the US government to rescue the market are as high as $65,438 +0.8 trillion. Issuing national debt will undoubtedly become the most important financial financing means for the US government. After experiencing the subprime mortgage crisis, many countries suddenly realized that for a mere 3% return (2008165438+1October 2 1), the yield of US Treasury bonds fell to the lowest level in history: 0.0 1% for three months and 0.0/%for two years. At present, it seems that the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States will inevitably lead to the continuous depreciation of the US dollar against other major currencies, which will undoubtedly bring serious losses to the holders of US Treasury bonds. Since the reform of the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in 2005, the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar has appreciated by 20.6%. Calculated by 20.6%, the annual depreciation loss of US Treasury bonds held by China will reach $654.38+020 billion. There is no doubt that in the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, countries including China and Japan have become powerful "payers".
Third, the impact on enterprises. After the "cold current" of the financial crisis hit the virtual economy hard, the real economy was immediately affected. Affected by the decline in sales, financial deterioration, declining market share and poor credit rating, the three major American automobile factories have turned to the US government for help or will be forced to go bankrupt. For enterprises in China, the export processing industry, which focuses on foreign trade, will bear the brunt, which may lead to the overall crisis of the manufacturing industry. According to the questionnaire survey conducted by the People's Bank of China in the third quarter of 2008, the export order index, which reflects overseas demand, continues to fall, reaching the lowest value in recent years. The domestic order index reflecting domestic demand decreased by 3.7 percentage points over the previous quarter; The growth rate of M 1 (narrow money supply), which reflects the activity of enterprises, fell below 9% at the end of June, the lowest in recent years. In the first three quarters of 2008, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year, and increased by 1 1.4% in September, which was 4.6 percentage points lower than that in June and the lowest since 2002. From June to August 2008, the profits of industrial enterprises nationwide increased by 19.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 19 percentage points lower than that in 2007. According to the current situation, it is predicted that the profits of industrial enterprises will increase by zero in 2009.