On June 65438+1 October1day, 2002, euro banknotes and coins were officially put into circulation. To this end, european system of central banks printed notes worth 633 billion euros and minted coins worth 654.38+06 billion euros, totaling nearly 650 billion euros. Among them, 40% banknotes and 2/3 coins have been delivered to commercial banks before 200 1, 12 and 3 1, totaling about 260 billion euros. According to the statistics of the European Central Bank, by June 65438+1October 65438+July 2002, the value of cash that had entered the circulation field was 204.9 billion euros, but at the same time, there were still old coins worth148.7 billion euros that had not been recovered. At present, the euro has generally become the main transaction intermediary in the euro zone. On June 28th, 65438+, Ireland on February 9th and France on February17th officially announced that the original "national currency" had completely withdrawn from circulation, and the euro became the only legal tender in circulation. Other countries in the euro zone did the same on February 28th at the latest. At the same time, the internationalization of the euro is not slow. Even in Britain, a member of the European Union but not formally adopting a unified currency, about 30% of large retail stores are willing to accept payment in euros, and more than half of them support the use of euros. At present, outside the euro zone, the currencies of more than 50 countries are linked to the euro.
Although the official circulation of the euro started smoothly, there are still many questions in the world. They are mainly worried about whether the euro will fall in the long run and whether the euro will stand firm in the short and medium term, especially against the US dollar. These doubts are not unreasonable. Because historically, the "Latin Monetary Union" agreement of Europe 1865 and the "Scandinavian Monetary Union" agreement of 1874 failed because of the lack of central coordination and political determination in difficult times (of course, there are also successful examples, such as the German Union of 18 15 and/KLOC-) In the reality after World War II, Europeans struggled for a unified currency for 30 to 50 years. During this period, although progress has been made gradually, there have been many setbacks, especially during the three years from 199965438+ 10 to 2001+February, the euro seems to have been lacking in "popularity". Since 2002, the situation has started to improve. On June 29th, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro reached the price of 1:0.9992, which was close to parity and the lowest point in 29 months. But as we all know, the dollar is still overvalued.
We believe that the current situation of the euro is basically normal and healthy. As for its future, it mainly depends on three factors: first, the progress of the cause of "European construction"; Followed by the main economic indicators of Europe, the European Union and, of course, the euro zone itself; Finally, the external environment, especially the influence from the United States and its currency, the dollar.
The progress of "European construction" is a decisive factor in the long-term future of the euro.
The cause of "European construction" mainly refers to the progress in the construction of the "three pillars" of the European Union. First of all, the basic pillar (the current manifestation of the European Union) European Economic and Monetary Union (the core of which is the unified currency euro and the internal unified market) can play a positive role in European political stability, economic prosperity and European reform. Secondly, to what extent can the other two pillars of the European Union, namely, foreign and security policies and internal affairs and judicial cooperation, be promoted?
The euro will promote political stability and economic prosperity in Europe, and the euro itself needs the support of the latter.
The political stability of Europe after the Cold War mainly depends on the healthy development of the EU. The official circulation of the euro symbolizes the enhancement of European identity. The consolidation and progress of European joint cause means that European joint and European reform will be strongly promoted, which indicates that the attractiveness of the EU will be further enhanced, and Europe will be more firmly gathered under the Venus flag of the EU than in the past. 1999 1 since the advent of the euro in 10, the fluctuation of the exchange rate against the US dollar has not split European countries, but has strengthened their coordination and mutually beneficial cooperation.
As for the euro's promotion of European economic prosperity, it first comes from its direct influence: the disappearance of currency exchange rate risk in the euro zone, the saving of exchange costs, the reduction of financial costs, the good macroeconomic environment formed by countries' compliance with the conditions stipulated in the Maastricht Treaty, the low interest rate policy pursued by the European Central Bank, and the rare period of monetary stability that Europe has experienced since the birth of the euro three years ago. In recent years, the euro zone has become a safe haven to successfully escape the impact of the financial market crisis. Secondly, more importantly, with the official circulation of the euro, the European unified market, which started with 1993, will be further improved, and the European financial market will be gradually unified and established.
However, in the long run, the key to the extent to which the euro can promote economic prosperity lies in its role in promoting the reform of the European Union and Europe. Many famous economists in the world almost agree with this question. When talking about the future prospect of the euro as an international currency, Greenspan pointed out that "the countries in the euro zone must eliminate the differences in laws and regulations." [1] Mandre believes that "the future exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar will depend on how these currencies overcome their respective weaknesses. The main weakness of the United States is the balance of payments deficit. The weakness of the euro lies in the tendency of governments in the euro zone to' overspend'. " [2] Pinto stressed that the main reason why the euro is difficult to compete with the dollar is that there are two "vacuums" in Europe: politics and finance. [3] but in terms of solutions, the views are not very consistent. As far as the impact of the euro on intra-regional trade is concerned, a study led by Ross, an economist at the University of California, Berkeley, believes that the establishment of a single currency will triple intra-European trade; However, the French economist Langang believes that the various discontinuities caused by the border (including administrative regulations and standards, social and religious phenomena, geographical and natural resources and other capacity conditions, economic development level and infrastructure, information differences, language barriers, etc.). ) will not disappear naturally with the unification of currencies. [4] Europeans still need to make a lot of efforts, especially in economic reform.
The euro will further promote EU integration, and the euro itself needs the support of the latter.
The euro shows a higher level of European identity. This is extremely important for promoting the European Union. Duysen Berg, President of the European Central Bank, wrote, "The euro makes us deeply Europeanized. To what extent European integration has developed, the euro is the most obvious signal. As time goes by, the euro, which symbolizes European identity, will also form its own life, history, culture and value in the euro zone. " [⑤]
As for how to promote the EU at present and in the future, we believe that with the official circulation of the euro, Europeans will attach importance to the construction of the "three pillars" at the same time. 1992 signed the Mayo, which announced the birth of the European Political, Economic and Monetary Union (referred to as the EU), and clearly stipulated that the EU is based on three pillars: * * the same organism, * * * foreign and security policies, and internal affairs and judicial cooperation. The * * * isomorphism mentioned here is a general term for "European coal and steel isomorphism", "European economic isomorphism" and "European atomic energy isomorphism" established in the 1950s. The internal unified market and the European monetary union (including the euro) are both problems within the same scope in Europe and supranational, and should be consolidated and developed in the future. In addition to community affairs, the EU has the second and third pillars, but at present, the problems in these two areas are only the cooperation between member governments, which are discussed and decided by the Council representing member States, and the role of the European Sports Commission in these two aspects is still very limited. This political "vacuum" will pose a threat to the euro if it is not carefully filled step by step. In addition, the fifth round of EU enlargement (usually called "eastward expansion") will increase the number of member States to about 25 before 2004, which is mainly due to the strategic considerations and political decisions of the EU. In fact, some applicant countries do not have economic conditions, and there are some complicated political problems. Therefore, "eastward expansion" requires a series of mutual commitments and compromises between new and old member States. Associated with the process of "European construction" including "eastward expansion", EU countries still have to go through a difficult process of adjustment and adaptation. This is one of the "weak" factors in Europe in recent years and in the future. But in the medium and long term, with the step-by-step progress in the process of "European construction" and adjustment and adaptation, Europe's "strength" will gradually emerge. Through the muddy swamp, there is a flat road ahead. Europeans are working hard in these areas.
The euro will promote European reform, and the euro itself needs the successful support of the latter.
In the past1/4th century, European society was filled with inertia and European economy lacked vitality. Europe urgently needs reform. It contains three levels of content:
First of all, the institutional, institutional and legislative reforms at the European Union and the euro zone level are aimed at adapting to the new situation of deepening and expanding European integration, thus further promoting the process of European integration; Its means of reaching the standard is mainly through amending the EU treaty. The Treaty of Rome, the European Treaty, has been revised three times, namely, the Single Europe Act promulgated by 1985, the Maastricht Treaty adopted by 199 1 and the Amsterdam Treaty adopted by 1997, in order to unify the market and unify it. At present, a new round of intergovernmental conference is being held at the end of 2003-early 2004, which will revise the European Treaty for the fourth time, so as to make EU institutions and mechanisms operate more effectively, make Europe's political future clearer, and make the European single market and currency play a greater and more active role.
Secondly, the European Union and the euro zone countries have made adaptive adjustments to the reforms at the European level, including truly transforming many EU legislations into the domestic laws of member States. Great progress has been made in this regard, but the current situation is not very satisfactory. Although more than half of the economic legislation of EU member countries comes from the EU headquarters, in fact, a truly unified market mechanism has not been established within the EU. For example, in telecommunications, energy, transportation and other sectors, the degree of market integration among countries is only about 20%; In the financial field, although the currency has been unified, the regulatory laws and regulations of the member countries of the euro zone are still varied. In response, the European Commission issued a special report on April 17, 2006, criticizing the slow progress of economic reform in member States. The report evaluates the market mechanism reform of 15 member countries: of the 36 quantifiable projects, only 20, or 55%, can be completed within the scheduled time before June 5438+0, 2006. But they are all trying.
Finally, reforms within the European Union and the euro zone member states. It mainly involves five aspects: adjusting the relationship between the state and the market, increasing the market, reducing the state, and improving the state and the market at the same time; Adjust the relationship between the government and enterprises, appropriately relax government restrictions, and reduce subsidies and tax cuts for state-owned enterprises; Adjust the relationship between the state and citizens, keep the basic ideas and core parts of the European social welfare system, put an end to abuse and cut some welfare projects; Adjust the relationship between employers and employees, increase flexibility, voluntariness and diversification, while continuing to take into account "social balance"; Properly develop "shareholder culture". In all these respects, Europeans are making progress, but the speed and degree seem to be insufficient.
In short, "European construction" has a long way to go. There are many contradictions here, such as national sovereignty barriers, differences in economic interests and social and cultural differences, but there are also various motivations, historical development inertia, international environmental pressure, huge interest attraction, main thrust, retrogressive cost resistance and European development potential. It can be expected that "European construction" will continue to advance slowly along the track of the past half century. The long-term outlook of the euro tends to be optimistic.
The performance of major economic indicators in Europe is the basic basis for the short-term trend of the euro.
The short-term trend of the euro, first of all, the exchange rate against the US dollar, mainly depends on Europe's own economic performance, and is also greatly influenced by the US economy and its currency, the US dollar. The main ones are:
Economic growth rate
In the 1990s, the average annual GDP growth rate of the United States was 3.2%, while the average annual GDP growth rate of the euro zone 1 1 country (Greece did not join at that time) was 2.0%, which obviously lagged behind Europe. 200 1 year, the European and American economies are in a downturn, with a growth rate of 1.5%. In 2002, the European economy will continue to be depressed, while the future of the American economy is uncertain. Some people think that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by 4.75 percentage points in 200 1 year, which will increase the GDP of the United States by 2% in 2002. Together with the fiscal stimulus totaling nearly $200 billion, the economy will grow by 2.5%. [6] Of course, there are different views on this. Krugman, for example, thinks that this American recession will be a double dip. However, the economic growth rate of the United States in 2002 may still be slightly higher than that of Europe 1.6%.
However, from the perspective of economic growth, there are two points worthy of attention: First, the economic growth rate of Europe and the United States may be close in the future 10. America's economic leadership in the past 10 years no longer exists. According to the forecast made by the World Bank in 2000, the average annual GDP growth rate of the United States and Europe from 1999 to 2008 was 2.8% [7] (while the average annual GDP growth rate of the United States from 2002 to 20 12 could reach 3. 1%). Secondly, although the European economy is not as dynamic as the United States, it is relatively stable than the United States, although sometimes it is relatively low. The main problems of American economy are many uncertain factors, including stock market dynamics, consumption situation, heavy debt, dollar policy and capital inflow and outflow. However, the main problem of European economy is socio-economic inertia, and the adaptation to the unified market and currency is far from complete. At the same time, there is a lack of "traction country" and "traction department". But Europe has neither a huge external deficit like the United States-the current account deficit accounts for 4% of GDP, nor a huge internal deficit like Japan-and the accumulated fiscal deficit of the central and local governments has exceeded 0.30% of 65438+GDP. It can be said that the EU is a relatively stable economic region in the world at present.
Here, just take the stock market as an example to compare the European and American economies. The influence of American stock market on economic life is far greater than that of Europe. The market value of the US stock market is three times that of the euro zone (654.38+0.38 trillion to 4.3 trillion dollars); American investors account for 50%, Germany 17% and France 20%; American securities (stocks and bonds) account for 70% of the external sources of funds for enterprises, and European enterprises account for about 30%. Therefore, the fluctuation of the American stock market has a great impact on the economy, and the factors leading to the fluctuation are further increasing, including a series of large companies making false accounts. However, due to the correlation between European and American economies, for example, 13% of US stocks are in the hands of foreign investors, while 40% of European stocks are in the hands of Anglo-Saxon investors. The correlation coefficient of European and American stock markets is about 0.5 in the non-technical field and as high as 0.8 in the information technology stock field. [8] Therefore, the fluctuation of the US stock market will also have a great impact on Europe. Nevertheless, the short-term impact of stock market volatility on the European economy is not as good as that of the United States. However, in the long run, the relative underdevelopment of European stock markets is not necessarily a good thing. 70% of external funds come from bank loans, which is one of the reasons why European enterprises lack vitality and adventurous spirit. Europe needs to further develop "shareholder culture" appropriately.
The relationship between cost, return on investment, enthusiasm for adopting new technologies, growth rate of labor productivity and cost.
The high labor cost in Europe leads to higher production costs than that in the United States, which is the pioneer of the "new economy", which is one of the factors that lead to a significantly higher return on investment in the United States than in Europe, and the high return rate of American companies urges them to adopt new technologies, which eventually leads to a faster growth rate of labor productivity in the United States than in Europe, which in turn leads to a lower cost. According to the calculation of the American Economic Review Committee, the productivity growth rate of the United States today is three times that of the European Union. Here, the return on investment is particularly important. Greenspan believes that the future prospect of the euro as an international currency will largely depend on whether the euro zone countries can reach the return on investment of the United States (10% in the peak year of 197, 6.5% in 2000, 3.5% in 2006, 5,438+0, and 3-4% in the euro zone in general). This is also one of the main reasons why European capital flows to the United States in large quantities. According to the statistics of corporate mergers in Los Angeles, in the past three years, foreign companies have taken over 2,779 American companies with a total value of $766 billion, of which 3/4 are from Europe. (10) However, with the influence of various economic and political factors, this capital flow may change. In fact, since 2002, there have been some changes in capital flows that are not conducive to the United States.
Inflation rate and interest rate
In the long run, the strength of a currency mainly depends on inflation. Since the birth of the euro in June, 65,438+0,999,65,438+0, the inflation rate in Europe is generally lower than that in the United States (about 2% to 3%), which is one of the bases for people to make optimistic estimates on the trend of the euro. As for the interest rate, the interest rate in the United States from 65438 to 0999-2000 was significantly higher than that in the euro zone, which was one of the important factors that led to the strengthening of the dollar and the weakening of the euro. Since 200 1, the current interest rate in the euro zone has been higher than that in the United States 1.5 percentage points (3.25% to 1.75%) after the Federal Reserve 1 1 interest rate cuts, which may be one of the factors restricting the continued strength of the US dollar.
In short, the American economy is more dynamic but full of uncertainty, while the European economy is relatively stable but lacks vitality. It remains to be seen how their main economic indicators will perform in the future. It seems that the situation may not quickly become favorable to Europe in the short to medium term, but the wind direction may change at any time. The French newspaper Echo published a graph of the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar on February 8, 2002, saying that the theoretical exchange rate of the two should be 1: 1.02, while the actual exchange rate in early July was 1:0.97-0.99, and the euro was still lower than the US dollar. This dollar strength depends not only on the main economic indicators of the United States and Europe, but also on their respective exchange rate policies, especially the exchange rate policy of the United States, and many other factors. However, it is worth noting how long this strong dollar policy will last. In the first half of the 1980s, the United States vigorously supported the dollar, and in the second half, it desperately depressed the dollar, which is still fresh in the world's memory.
The external environment is an important factor affecting the international status of the euro.
Since the advent of 1999, the euro has played an important role in the international monetary system and become the second largest international currency. The future international status of the euro mainly depends on Europe's own performance in various aspects and will also be influenced by the outside world.
The current international status of the euro
The euro is already one of the major international currencies. With a population of over 300 million in Europe and residents of neighboring countries, about 500 million people often deal with the euro. Two-thirds to three-quarters of the euro zone's foreign trade has been settled in euros. 15% of global trade is settled in euros. The euro has accounted for 12.5% of the global official foreign exchange reserves. The euro has become an important currency in the international financial market. European bonds have reached 7.5 trillion yuan, accounting for about 1/3- 1/2 of international bond markets's issuance in recent years.
The future international status of the euro depends on the performance of the European economy-currency itself, especially strengthening the stability of the euro, which will reduce the capital risk of the holders of this currency form; The exchange rate is firm, which will avoid the loss of investors' funds; Establish a huge financial market with good liquidity, which can make shareholders clean up and diversify their shares; Strong management minimizes the possibility of crisis. At the same time, the future international status of the euro will also be influenced by the outside world, mainly the United States and the dollar, in addition to the trust and support of Britain, Japan and other countries in the region.
Policies of America, Britain and Japan towards Euro
Since 1999, the United States has been squeezing the euro. American scholars (and British scholars) hold different opinions on the euro: some attach great importance to it (Bergsten, etc. ), some show indifference (Pinto, etc. ), and some still think that "the euro is a mistake" (Friedman et al. Bergsten, director of the American Institute for International Economics, believes that with the birth of the euro, the status of the US dollar will be challenged; The euro also has a great influence on world politics. The world monetary system centered on the dollar will be replaced by the bipolar monetary system centered on Europe and the United States respectively. Garten, dean of Yale School of Management and former US Deputy Secretary of Commerce, believes that the establishment of the European Union with the single currency euro will be the most significant change in the global economy, and the impact of this event will exceed any other economic event that people can imagine. Euro was officially circulated on June 5438+ 10, 2002. There may be some policy confusion and technical problems in the initial stage, but once the dust settles, the European Monetary Union will become the second largest economic zone in the world. The use of the euro will have a great impact on Europe and the world. In Europe, reforms such as convenient purchase and sale, intensified competition, enterprise reorganization, the emergence of new large European companies, the unification of European capital market and the promotion of labor market will have a positive impact on Europe; Beyond Europe's borders, the euro will become a strong rival for the dollar to compete for central bank reserves and trading capital, and Russia and all eastern European countries will be attracted to join the euro zone sooner or later, making it under the political influence of western Europe. In this context, the US government has actually drawn a serious conclusion from it. It can be expected that the United States will continue to squeeze the euro until the euro develops to a certain extent, and the United States will pay more attention to equal cooperation with it.
Naturally, the US policy of squeezing the euro and strengthening the dollar is not the whole reason why the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar has remained low for three years, from 1999 to 200 1. This is just like the exchange rate policies in Europe and America are difficult to explain clearly. In the past 30 years, the exchange rate of the euro (and its predecessor EUA and European Monetary Unit) fluctuated greatly between 56 cents and 1.47 USD [1 1]. In the first three years after the introduction of Euro 1999, the exchange rate against the US dollar dropped from the high point of 1. 18 to 0.82, which was more than 30%. Among them, there are other factors, such as the American economy, the prosperity of the stock market, the bond market and the housing market, the strong demand for the US dollar, the overvaluation of the US dollar exchange rate, and the massive inflow of international capital into the United States. According to the statistics of the U.S. Treasury Department, in 1993, the annual net purchase of American securities by foreign investors exceeded 1000 billion dollars for the first time, and reached a record high of 532 billion dollars in 201year. In 2000, the foreign direct investment in the United States was as high as $2,865.438 billion. [12] The cumulative result is that foreigners currently hold 2/5 US Treasury bonds,14 US corporate bonds and 13% US stocks. [13] On the contrary, since the spring and summer of 200 1, people's confidence in the American economy and its stock market has been frustrated, and international capital has flowed into the United States because of the "9. 1 1 incident" and subsequent terrorist expectations, the simultaneous reappearance of twin deficits at home and abroad four years later, the credit crisis of famous big companies and the overvaluation of the US dollar. In the first quarter of 2002, foreigners bought $45 billion in company stocks and other bonds in the United States, only half of the same period last year, which was an important factor that made the exchange rate of the US dollar against the euro fall by about 14% in the second quarter of 2002. Of course, all these factors can be reversed at any time-especially when the European economy is still weak. But on the whole, the "peak" period of the US economy and the US dollar seems to have passed, and the exchange rate of the euro against the US dollar should gradually return to 1 euro pair 1.05 US dollars, which should be a reasonable position, but there may still be ups and downs.
Britain continues to support the euro. The latest opinion poll shows that 80% of Britons believe that Britain will eventually join the single currency. After all, the trade volume between Britain and European countries is three times that with the United States. [14] But considering the "Euroscepticism" in British society, which involves the euro, the British are first worried about accepting the constraints of the balanced budget of the euro zone and giving up the power of the Bank of England to adjust interest rates independently (the interest rate in pounds is higher than the interest rate in euros); At the same time, the exchange rate of the pound is overvalued, about 1 euro to 0.64, while some people in Britain think that the ideal exchange rate should be 1:0.70. The exchange rate at which the pound joins the euro is also a big problem, which will affect Britain's competitiveness. How to adjust the "two rates" so that Britain can join the euro zone without having a negative impact on Britain's finance, employment, foreign trade, attracting foreign investment, inflation, etc., really makes the British take great pains. So it is completely understandable why 56% people think that Britain should join the euro after its successful operation. Sophisticated Englishmen are always like this. Once Britain joins, the euro will boost it; But it may also bring new troubles.
Japan has adopted limited policies to deal with the euro. After the official circulation of the euro, Japanese government officials made speeches in succession, welcoming the birth of the euro and saying that they would speed up the internationalization of the yen. Although Japan's GDP ranks second in the world, the yen accounts for only 5% of the world's foreign exchange reserves and international trade settlement. Unless Japan makes great progress in participating in regional cooperation in East Asia, or its economy takes a positive and significant turn rapidly, the role of the yen cannot be compared with that of the US dollar, nor can it be on an equal footing with the euro in the future. What Japan is talking about now is the internationalization of the yen, which is to strive to keep a place in the world. However, the importance of the yen cannot be ignored.
Other external factors, mainly energy, raw material market prices and international financial fluctuations.
In 20001year, the energy consumption of EU 15 countries was 800 million tons of oil and 500 million tons of natural gas, of which 500 million tons of oil and 250 million tons of natural gas were imported. Every time the oil price rises 10%, the economic growth rate in Europe will decrease by 0. 1 percentage point, while the inflation rate will increase by 0. 1 percentage point. [15] The fluctuation of the international financial market will also have a complex impact on the euro. For example, the recent debt crisis in Argentina had a negative impact on the euro. According to the survey of the Bank for International Settlements, the losses suffered by Spanish banks due to Argentina's debts ranked first, with US$ 654.38+083 billion, followed by US$ 654.38+065.438+02 billion and Germany's US$ 8.8 billion. The foreign exchange market regards Argentina's insolvency as a reason to sell the euro. [ 16]
In short, the birth of the euro is a major event in the world economy and international political life. In the long run, the euro will eventually succeed; In the short and medium term, it is still difficult for the euro to strongly challenge the dollar, but it will gradually develop and grow. This is not only the process of the development of market forces, but also the process of policy evolution. In this regard, in his written speech at the annual meeting of the American Economic Association on June 4, 2002, Bergsten believed that the existing international monetary order is inert: if we consider from the "gross" and "scale" of the economy, that is, the GDP of Europe and the United States is roughly the same, the euro zone is about 20% less than that of the United States, and the foreign trade euro zone is about 20% more than that of the United States, and the development trend is favorable to Europe; The backward situation of European integration in some important areas and the possible progress in the future; The huge weakness of the United States in the balance of payments and other aspects and the possible changes in decision-making in the future, all of which, at a "point in time", the exchange rate of the US dollar will fall by 20% or more, with great probability. Although exchange rate changes may not fully reflect the relative changes in monetary power (in terms of monetary power, the US dollar has a prominent advantage at present, accounting for about three times of the US GDP in the world, about 75% to 25%, while the share of the euro in the foreign exchange reserves of various countries is currently less than that of the EU GDP in the world, about 15% to 25%, and this situation will continue for some time. By then, the euro will gradually become the dominant international currency on an equal footing with the US dollar. However, people still need patience.
(Author: Qiu Yuanlun, Institute of European Studies, China Academy of Social Sciences, compiled by Guo Ying in February 2003)
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[1] quoted from the article "The United States, Britain and Japan look at the euro" in theNo. 1 issue of the French magazine "Europe-China Economic and Trade" in 2002.
[2] On June 9, 2002, Mandre talked about the euro to AFP reporters.
[3] Daniel Pinto: "The euro without European sovereignty has little influence", published in Tribune International Herald 200 1 12 19.
[4][ English] The Economist weekly article "Borders and Barriers" February 2006 1.
[5] De Issembe: "The euro makes us deeply feel that we are Europeans", in [France] Euro-China Economic and Trade 2002No. 1 issue.
[6] Yan Hengyuan: "The American economy seems to be coming to an end", published in Global Times in June 2002, 65438+ 10/0.
[7] World Bank: Global Economic Outlook 2000.
[8] Devit Chambers: "There will be no domino phenomenon in European economy", published in [Japanese] magazine "Choice".
[9] Quoted from Wang Jiansheng: "The Impact of the Sharp Decline in American Corporate Profits", published in the Economic Information Daily in February 2002 19.
Attending Business Weekly 20065438+0 July 9.
[1 1][ Germany] Business Daily, May 9, 2000.
[12][ America] Newsweek online edition July 2002 1 day.
[13][ English] The Economist article "Exciting Dollar" on June 8, 2002.
Le figaro, February 2002.
[15][ France] le figaro 20065438+0 September 27th.
[16] Quoted from Chu Ping: Euro Wandering Low, published in International Trade News 200 1 12 3 1.