Gold and oil are positively correlated, that is, the price of gold and oil are usually positively correlated. The rise in oil prices indicates that the price of gold will also rise, and the fall in oil prices indicates that the price of gold will also fall. The fluctuation of oil prices will directly affect the development of the world economy, especially the American economy, because the total economic output and crude oil consumption of the United States are the highest in the world, and the economic trend of the United States will directly affect the changes in the quality of American assets, thus leading to the rise and fall of the dollar and the rise and fall of the price of gold. According to the estimation of the International Monetary Fund, for every $5 increase in oil prices, the global economic growth rate will decrease by about 0.3 percentage points, while the US economic growth rate may decrease by about 0.4 percentage points. When oil prices continued to soar, the International Monetary Fund immediately lowered its forecast for future economic growth. Oil prices have become a "barometer" of the global economy. High oil prices also mean that the uncertainty of economic growth increases and inflation expectations rise, which in turn pushes up the price of gold.

In the relationship between gold, oil and dollar, the price of gold is mainly denominated in dollar, and so is oil. In the early 1970s, after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the world monetary system built after World War II, the prices of gold and oil were separated from the fixed exchange rate with the US dollar, and the prices soared. There are both close ties and mutual checks and balances between them, and there is relative stability hidden in the mutual fluctuation, and there is absolute change in the surface stability. In the medium and long term, the fluctuation trend of gold and crude oil is basically the same, but the amplitude is different. In the past 30 years, the price fluctuations of gold and oil denominated in US dollars have been relatively stable, with the average price of gold about 300 US dollars/ounce and the average price of oil about 20 US dollars/barrel. The average exchange relationship between gold and oil is 1 ounce of gold to about 16 barrels of oil. This ratio reached its peak in the middle and late 1980s, and 65,438+0 ounces of gold was exchanged for about 30 barrels of crude oil. However, due to the tight supply of crude oil, the price of crude oil rose sharply, while gold was relatively stagnant in the same period. So far, 1 ounce of gold can only be exchanged for about 12 barrels of oil. Judging from the current exchange ratio between oil and gold, there is still room for the price of gold to rise.