There is a global financial crisis.

The financial crisis, also known as the financial storm, refers to the sharp, short-term and super-cycle deterioration of all or most financial indicators of a country or several countries and regions (such as short-term interest rates, monetary assets, securities, real estate, land (price), the number of commercial bankruptcies and the number of financial institution failures).

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Its characteristic is that people's expectations of the future economy are more pessimistic, the currency of the whole region has depreciated sharply, and the economic aggregate and scale have lost a lot, which has hit economic growth. It is often accompanied by a large number of business failures, rising unemployment rate, general economic depression in society, and sometimes even social unrest or national political turmoil.

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Financial crisis can be divided into currency crisis, debt crisis and banking crisis. In recent years, the financial crisis has increasingly presented some mixed forms of crisis.

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The financial crisis in Thailand occurred in the turmoil in the stock market and foreign exchange market. First of all, the impact of the dollar contraction in the foreign exchange market has caused the Thai baht to depreciate sharply in a short period of time, further affecting Thailand's stock market and financial system. Southeast Asia's financial market is a bound economy with advantages and disadvantages, and the currencies of various countries are not unified. In the international financial market, the US dollar eventually became a trading unit. Indirectly created a push for the outbreak of the financial crisis.

Therefore, the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia came from the impact of the foreign exchange market, and the currency crisis became a subsidiary of the financial crisis. The subprime mortgage crisis made financial institutions in developed countries re-evaluate risks and allocate assets. In the next two years, funds from developed countries will reverse the influx trend and strengthen the stability of local financial institutions. As a result, the securities market prices of emerging market countries will be greatly reduced, the local currencies will depreciate, the investment scale will be reduced, and the economic growth will slow down or even decline. The most vulnerable countries are the Baltic countries and India. The new financial crisis will bring pressure to China's economic growth, but China capital is also facing a good opportunity to "go global" and integrate the corresponding enterprises.

The dark clouds of the global financial crisis are gathering, and in the next two years, there will be a new financial crisis around the world. The biggest victims of this financial crisis will be some emerging market countries, which brings challenges and new opportunities to China's economic development.

The reversal of capital flow will lead to financial crisis in emerging market countries.

Why will there be a new financial crisis in the future? This should start with the basic pattern of financial development in developed economies and emerging market economies in the past decade.

Developed economies, represented by the United States and Britain, have benefited from the general trend of globalization in the past decade, and their economies have continued to prosper, but the foundation of this prosperity is actually relatively fragile. These economies have relatively insufficient self-savings, increasing consumption and strengthening the trend of economic financialization. Its concentrated performance is that families use existing financial assets, especially real estate, as collateral to borrow money from banks to support their rising consumption. The inevitable result of the development of this pattern is the rupture of the consumer credit chain, and the concentrated expression is the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States. The subprime mortgage crisis made American financial institutions reevaluate the cost of financial risks and forced them to redistribute assets to reduce risks.

On the other hand, emerging market economies have attracted a lot of capital from developed countries in the past decade. Take Mexico, Russia, India, Brazil and other countries as examples, more than half of the funds in their securities markets come from abroad. Rising overseas funds not only promote the soaring local asset prices, but also promote the prosperity of the local economy, and at the same time bring about the continuous appreciation of the real exchange rate of the local currency. This series of processes has laid the groundwork for the financial crisis of these economies, among which two regions are the most prominent: First, the three Baltic countries-Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, where not only the current account deficit exceeds 10% of GDP, but also the fiscal deficit is getting bigger and bigger, and the rising trend of domestic prices is getting worse. Moreover, these countries have also implemented a linked exchange rate system linked to the euro, which undoubtedly wrote down the best chemical reaction formula that led to the financial crisis.

Another very fragile economy is India. Although India's economy has maintained an average annual growth rate of more than 8% in the past three years, its macroeconomic situation is not optimistic: for a long time, India's current account has been in deficit, more than half of the funds in the securities market have come from overseas, the inflation rate has been rising, and the central government has been in deficit for a long time.

Considering the economic situation of developed countries and emerging market countries comprehensively, we can easily draw a conclusion: in the next two years, the world economy is likely to see a reversal of capital flow, that is, the funds that poured into emerging market countries from developed economies in pursuit of high risks and high returns a few years ago will flow back to developed countries in reverse, and the stability of financial institutions in developed countries will be strengthened. The formation of this trend will undoubtedly have a direct impact on developing countries and eventually lead to the formation of financial crisis in emerging market countries. World economic factors mainly include:

(1) The negative impact of economic globalization. Economic globalization makes the economic ties of countries around the world closer and closer, but its negative effects can not be ignored, such as the intensification of interest conflicts between nation-States, the enhancement of capital mobility, and the difficulty in preventing crises.

(2) Unreasonable international division of labor, trade and monetary system are unfavorable to third world countries. In the field of production, high-tech products and high-tech itself are still produced in developed countries, and the technical content of products is gradually declining to underdeveloped countries. Least developed countries can only do assembly work and produce primary products. In the field of exchange, developed countries can buy primary products at low prices and monopolize high prices to promote their own products. In the field of international finance and currency, the whole global financial system and system is also beneficial to financial powers.

The financial crisis has a far-reaching impact, exposing some deep-seated problems behind the rapid economic development of some Asian countries. In this sense, it is not only a bad thing, but also a good thing, which provides opportunities for developing countries in Asia to deepen reform, adjust industrial structure and improve macro-management. Because of the arduous task of reform and adjustment, it will take some time for these countries to fully restore their economies. However, the basic factors of economic growth in developing countries in Asia still exist. After overcoming internal and external difficulties, there is great hope for the improvement and further development of the Asian economic situation.

The Asian financial crisis in 1997 and 1998 is another major event that has a far-reaching impact on the world economy after the world economic crisis in the 1930s. This financial crisis reflects that there are serious defects in the financial systems of all countries in the world, including many mature financial systems and economic operation modes that people think are selected through historical development. This financial crisis has exposed many problems, which need to be reflected. This financial crisis has brought us many new topics and raised the issue of establishing new financial laws and organizational forms. This book attempts to do research in this field. The central issue of this book is how to get rid of the century-old economic problems brought about by the money supply system formed by various countries and the debt derivative mechanism formed between enterprises under the new situation after the monetary system reform at the beginning of this century, without realizing the paper money standard, including:

(1) Enterprises are heavily in debt, banks are heavily in bad debts, and financial debt crises occur frequently;

(2) Excessive social money supply, heavy banking business and increased difficulty in macro-control;

(3) The government has difficulty in tax collection, and the financial crisis is intertwined with the financial crisis;

(4) Inflation and social economy are intertwined, bubble economy occurs from time to time, economic fluctuations are frequent, and economic growth is often hindered;

(5) Lack of enterprise funds brings operational difficulties, increases the bankruptcy rate and frequent enterprise merger activities, reduces the stability of enterprises, increases unemployment, and is not conducive to economic growth and social stability.

(6) Unequal international monetary relations have brought a heavy burden to most countries in the world and caused many international economic problems.

The deepest reason for the above problems is that the monetary system is not perfect and the new mechanism of inter-enterprise trading activities under the condition of socialized mass production is not fully understood. The idea of this book is to establish an authoritative enterprise transaction settlement intermediary system-the national enterprise transaction intermediary settlement system, liberate the debt chain between enterprises, and eliminate the bad debt base between enterprises and banks, so as to avoid the occurrence of debt and financial crisis, reduce the harm of inflation and bubble economy, and promote stable economic growth. In this process of innovation, national tax revenue and fiscal expenditure will also be innovated to reduce the occurrence of fiscal deficit. At the same time, it will also produce the innovation of enterprise system, reduce the bankruptcy and merger of enterprises and enhance the stability of enterprises. In addition, it will also innovate international settlement methods and reform the use of international currency. This process is not a simple treatment of economic problems, but a correction of serious defects in the paper money system, an innovation in the money supply and circulation system, and a major change in the financial system. Moreover, this change has brought many adjustments to the economic operation mechanism.

Although the outbreak of the Asian financial crisis has its specific internal causes in all countries: the economy continues to overheat, the economic bubble expands, and the blindness of introducing foreign capital-too much short-term foreign debt, imperfect banking system, collusion between banks and enterprises, and large debts of enterprises. The crisis also has its external causes: the "bad" behavior of international speculators, but people should go further and find out the essential factors of the crisis-modern financial economy and the trend of economic globalization.

Liu believes that the financial crisis is the internal content of the capitalist economic crisis, and the world economic panic of 1929- 1933 is preceded by a serious financial crisis. The Mexican financial crisis of 1994 and the East Asian financial crisis of 1997 first occurred in the capitalist world. It can be seen that the financial crisis has its institutional roots and is a capitalist crisis. The possibility of financial crisis lies in the inherent spontaneous monetary credit mechanism of market economy. Once financial activities get out of control and the contradiction between money and money lending intensifies, the financial crisis will be manifested. The modern market economy characterized by highly developed financial activities is itself a high-risk economy, which contains the possibility of financial crisis. Economic globalization and economic integration are another major feature of the contemporary world economy. Economic globalization is the highest form of market economy development beyond national boundaries. With the further development of commodity relations between countries after the Second World War, countries are more interdependent economically, and goods, services, capital, technology and knowledge flow frequently in the international arena.

The trend of economic globalization is more obvious. The globalization of financial activities is an important reason for the new allocation of resources in the contemporary world and the leap-forward development of economically backward countries and regions. However, with the explosive development of international credit and investment and the deepening of internal contradictions, the financial crisis will inevitably break out in those weak links with imperfect systems. To sum up, the modern market economy has not only crises caused by overproduction and insufficient demand, but also financial crises caused by uncontrolled financial credit behavior, excessive use of new financial instruments and excessive speculation in the capital market. In the capitalist world, the crisis of this market operation mechanism is catalyzed and aggravated by the basic system. Financial crisis is inevitable not only in capitalist countries, but also in the socialist market economy system.

The imperfect financial system and out-of-control financial activities are the endogenous factors of the financial crisis. Because of this, in China's current system transformation, people should attach great importance to and earnestly do a good job in the construction of a market economy system regulated by the government, especially to make great efforts to improve the financial system and greatly enhance their ability to prevent endogenous and exogenous financial crises. Abstract: After the outbreak of the financial crisis in Southeast Asia, people conducted extensive and in-depth discussions on the causes of the crisis, pointing out the internal and external causes of the crisis, while Liu further pointed out the deep-seated reasons, that is, the modern monetary credit mechanism led to the crisis. As long as modern market economy exists, the inherent monetary credit mechanism of market economy may lead to financial crisis. However, it only happens in countries with imperfect systems and the weakest countries. This is no exception in socialist market economy countries. Even so, we can still prevent the financial crisis by improving the financial system, and Liu pointed out a way to prevent the financial crisis.

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