In 2022, the RMB exchange rate may be between 6.65 and 7. As of 202 1, 12, 3 1, the dollar index has rebounded to 95.97. Since the exchange rate reform of 2015 "811",when the US dollar index is in this position, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB has been in the range of 6.65 to 7. If the support of the future balance of payments weakens, the exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB may move towards this range.

As a balancer of the "tightness difference" between China and the United States, in order to release the domestic monetary policy space, it may allow the RMB exchange rate to release more flexibility in the depreciation direction. At present, the federal funds futures have hinted that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates three times in 2022.

It is estimated that in 2022, China will have room for RRR reduction by 1- 1.5 percentage points. Under the increasing economic pressure, there is still room for interest rate reduction by/kloc-0 ~15 BP, and the spread between China and the United States will move to the alert level of 80bp, which will bring depreciation pressure to the RMB exchange rate.

However, between the devaluation of RMB and the "I-oriented" monetary policy, the choice of policy has become clear from February 2002165438 when the central bank raised the foreign exchange reserve ratio. There is also the recent interest rate cut yesterday, which can better illustrate the above point of view.