The People's Bank of China authorized China Foreign Exchange Trading Center to announce that the central parity of RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market on September 7, 2022 was: US$ 65,438+0 to RMB 6.965,438+060, down 64 basis points from the previous trading day.
In addition, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell below the 6.97 yuan mark, and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar once fell below the 6.99 yuan mark, close to "breaking 7".
Why did the RMB exchange rate depreciate?
The decline of RMB exchange rate is influenced by many factors, mainly related to the adjustment of US monetary policy in the near future.
The data shows that since the beginning of this year, the US dollar has appreciated by 14.6%. In the context of the appreciation of the US dollar, other reserve currencies in the SDR basket depreciated sharply against the US dollar. From 1 to August, the euro depreciated 12%, the pound depreciated 14%, the yen depreciated 17%, and the RMB depreciated by 8%.
Wang Youxin, a senior researcher at China Banking Research Institute, said that the peripheral dollar index continued to rise, which was influenced by factors such as the continuous interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve and the weakness of the euro, which brought adjustment pressure to the RMB exchange rate.
However, compared with other non-US dollar currencies, the depreciation of RMB is the smallest. Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, said at a routine briefing on the State Council policy on the 5th that the depreciation of the RMB was relatively small, and in the SDR basket, it should be said that the RMB appreciated against all non-US dollar currencies except the US dollar, not against other currencies in the SDR basket. In the SDR currency basket, a basic situation is that the US dollar has appreciated and the RMB has also appreciated, but the appreciation of the US dollar is greater than that of the RMB. Therefore, the RMB has not depreciated as a whole.
A basket of currency data charts.
What is the impact of RMB depreciation?
Generally speaking, after the devaluation of RMB, studying abroad and shopping will increase the cost, and there will be pressure on imports, but it is good for exports.
According to data released by the General Administration of Customs on the 7th, in the first eight months of this year, China's total import and export value was 27.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 10. 1% over the same period last year. Among them, exports 15.48 trillion yuan, an increase of14.2%; Imports 1 1.82 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%.
Bai Ming, deputy director of the International Market Research Institute of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, told Sino-Singapore Finance that the depreciation of the local currency will help export enterprises increase their export income and improve their competitiveness and profitability. However, the depreciation of RMB exchange rate is also a double-edged sword. Export enterprises have increased their income through RMB exchange rate depreciation, but if they use too many imported raw materials and parts, they are likely to increase their expenses because of RMB exchange rate depreciation.
Wen Bin, chief economist of China Minsheng Bank, told Zhongxin.com Finance that for China's import and export foreign trade enterprises, exchange rate risk management should be well done to ensure the normal production and operation of enterprises.
Has the RMB "broken 7"?
For the future trend of RMB exchange rate, the current market is generally concerned about whether it will fall below the integer mark of 7.
Citic Jiantou pointed out that under the background that the linkage between the RMB and the US dollar is obviously enhanced, the analysis of the future trend of the RMB exchange rate depends more on the US dollar index. Therefore, there is pressure for RMB to depreciate or even "break 7", but the impact of this round of depreciation on capital flow is not strong, and it is not expected to weaken significantly.
Zhong, chief economist of Ping An Securities, believes that this round of RMB exchange rate has the possibility of "breaking 7". Compared with the status of the US dollar, the current RMB exchange rate is still obviously strong. However, the status of RMB exchange rate itself is not the most important, and whether the cross-border capital flow in China is stable is the essence of the problem. After two rounds of RMB "breaking 7" in August 20 19 and early 2020, the point of 7 itself is not easy to cause the so-called overshoot.
Liu Guoqiang, deputy governor of the central bank, believes that the long-term trend of RMB should be clear, and the international recognition of RMB will be enhanced in the future, which is a long-term trend. But it should be like this in the short term. Two-way fluctuation is a normal state. There will be two-way fluctuations, and there will be no "unilateral market". However, the location of the exchange rate is uncertain. Don't bet on a certain point. A reasonable balance and basic stability are what we like and what we have the strength to support. I think nothing will happen, and nothing will happen.
Data map of RMB and USD. Public trust. Zhongguangwang reporter Li
What about breaking 7?
In fact, since the exchange rate reform of 2015 "811",the RMB exchange rate has broken 7 in 20 19 and 2020.
2065438+On August 5, 2009, the relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China said that the RMB exchange rate "broke 7". This "7" is not an era, nor can it come back in the past, nor is it a dam. Once it is broken, it will overflow thousands of miles; "7" is more like the water level of a reservoir. It is higher in rainy season and will drop again in dry season. It is normal to have ups and downs.
Guan Tao, global chief economist of Bank of China Securities, believes that we should treat the wide fluctuation of RMB exchange rate with a normal mind. Now, the tolerance and adaptability of the government and the market to the two-way fluctuation and wide fluctuation of the exchange rate have been greatly enhanced.
From September 15, the central bank will reduce the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by two percentage points, that is, the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio will be reduced from the current 8% to 6%. This is the second foreign exchange "RRR cut" this year. Experts believe that the central bank's move will release a positive signal to the market, which will help stabilize the expectation of RMB exchange rate and avoid irrational overshooting.