South Ossetia, located between Russia and Georgia, is a region of Georgia. 1922 On April 20th, South Ossetia Autonomous Prefecture was formally established, with Tskhinvali (then known as Tskhinvali) as its capital, belonging to the Georgian Soviet Socialist Republic. On the eve of the disintegration of the Soviet Union, South Ossetia began to pursue the route of independence from Georgia from 1989. At the end of 1989, Georgia sent troops to South Ossetia from the Ministry of Internal Affairs. South Ossetia organized a militia-like national guard and began to counterattack the Georgian army, and a large-scale military conflict broke out.
1On September 20th, 990, the People's Representative Committee of South Ossetia Autonomous Prefecture adopted the Declaration of Independence, announcing the establishment of the Republic of South Ossetia, which Georgia did not recognize. During the reign of Zavida Jamsahutia from 1990 to 199 1, Georgia put forward the slogan "Georgia of Georgians" aimed at excluding Russia and tried to solve the Georgian conflict by force. On June1990 65438+February 1 1, the Supreme Council of Georgia announced the abolition of the organizational system of South Ossetia Autonomous Prefecture, and at the same time declared a state of emergency throughout the country. 199165438+1On October 6, Georgian internal affairs forces moved into South Ossetia under the cover of heavy weapons, and a large-scale armed conflict broke out again between the two sides. The conflict caused thousands of deaths, most of them were peaceful residents of Georgia and South Ossetia, and tens of thousands of difficult residents of South Ossetia became refugees. A large number of South Ossetian refugees poured into the neighboring Russian territory of North Ossetia, which caused great social and economic pressure on North Ossetia.
1992 June 5438+0, South Ossetia held a referendum. The results of the referendum show that the vast majority of South Ossetians support independence. 1992 June 14, Georgia and South Ossetia, which have been in power by Shevardnadze, signed the Dagomes Ceasefire Agreement. The two sides temporarily stopped military operations and began to station Russian-Georgian-Ossetian mixed peacekeeping forces in the conflict area of Georgia, separating the two sides of the conflict. At present, the currency of South Ossetia is ruble, the official language is Russian, and nearly half of South Ossetia residents have Russian nationality.
Saakashvili launched the illegal Rose Revolution on June 5438+065438+ 10, 2003, and overthrew President Chekhoyne and his government through a series of street demonstrations, becoming the President of Georgia. After Saakashvili came to power, he followed the pro-American and pro-Russian line. Historically and culturally, Georgia has close ties with Russia. On the economic level, Georgia and Russia are inseparable. Georgia's main products, such as fruits and vegetables, flowers and wine, mainly rely on the markets of CIS countries, among which Russia is its largest export market, accounting for about 30% of its exports. Georgia's export products can't meet the import standards of the European Union and the United States and can't enter the European and American markets. Once the Russian market is lost, Georgia's economy will be hit hard. At the same time, due to the limitation of national defense funds, the Georgian army has been unable to complete the transformation of equipment and weapon systems from Soviet system to American system. If the relationship with Russia breaks down, the military cooperation and exchanges between the two sides will be completely frozen, and the combat strength of the Georgian army will inevitably be greatly reduced. Georgia is inseparable from Russia in many aspects. For Russia, Georgia is just a strategic pawn. After independence, Abkhazia established diplomatic relations with Russia and signed a military cooperation agreement. According to these agreements, Russia will build a naval base on the Black Sea coast of Abkhazia, which is to prepare for the expiration of the lease of Sevastopol in 20 17 years, and at the same time Georgia's strategic value to Russia is greatly reduced. After independence, South Ossetia and Abkhazia, like two wedges that can never be removed, have become the eternal pain in the hearts of Georgians.
After the war, President Medvedev said that the Georgian president no longer exists and Saakashvili is just a political zombie. Moscow believes that Saakashvili's regime is an irresponsible regime without complete self-control and there is no possibility of negotiation or dialogue with it. Georgia has announced that it will unilaterally break diplomatic relations with Russia, withdraw its ambassador to Russia, close its consulate in Moscow and withdraw from the CIS led by Moscow. Saakashvili still sticks to his stubborn anti-Russian stance and pursues a one-sided policy toward the United States. Unless Saakashvili steps down, there is no possibility of improving Russia-Georgia relations. In fact, even if there is a regime change in Georgia, the relationship between the two sides will still be difficult to warm up. Joining NATO has become Georgia's political consciousness, and it is difficult to elect a pro-Russian political leader in the current political atmosphere. For Russia, Georgia, which is increasingly inclined to the United States and trying to join NATO, does not have the conditions to become a partner, and it is difficult for Moscow to talk to an aggressor.
Georgia's accession will bring great disaster to NATO.
Although the Caucasus war has ended, Georgia's desire to join NATO has not given up. On the contrary, the defeat of the war strengthened Georgia's determination to join NATO. Only there are differences within NATO on Tbilisi's accession: the United States, Britain and Eastern European countries urged Georgia to give the green light as soon as possible, but other countries disagreed. Russian and Georgian ambassadors to Germany expressed their positions in media interviews. Russian ambassador to Germany Vladimir? Husband? Kotenev resolutely opposes Georgia's entry into NATO, saying that the Georgian government is not a partner, but an "unruly aggressor". Levin, Georgian ambassador to Germany? Du Zize criticized the "aggressive policy" pursued by Russia. He said that his country's membership in NATO has been confirmed.
After the disintegration of the Soviet Union, most of the former Soviet Union's countries and countries turned politically, highlighting their own and national independence to varying degrees, alienating their relations with Russia and realizing pro-European or pro-American policies. Baltic countries, Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia pursue the route of "de-russification", and Ukraine and Georgia are particularly radical in implementing this route. In recent years, the two countries and Russia have been very dirty politically, economically and militarily.
The fiasco of the Caucasus War turned Saakashvili from a "hero" in the Rose Revolution into a "bear" who lost his teacher and land. After Saakashvili came to power through the illegal Rose Revolution, he never fulfilled a series of promises made in the revolution and its subsequent elections, and the domestic people became more and more disappointed with his administration and gradually lost patience. Saakashvili's military adventure and armed aggression abroad, political coercion and dictatorship at home have already aroused strong dissatisfaction from domestic opponents. In March this year, a large-scale street demonstration broke out in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia. The opposition tried to overthrow Saakashvili, but ultimately failed because it was not recognized by the United States. After the Caucasus War, the territory of Georgia was divided into three parts, the elite army, navy and air force were almost wiped out, foreign capital fled in succession, and the domestic economic situation deteriorated. The opposition demanded that Saakashvili step down. Without the support of US President Bush, Saakashvili may lose his presidency.
Joining NATO has become the knowledge of various political forces in Georgia, but there are differences in the timing of joining NATO. Georgia's accession to NATO has the following two major factors. First, this is the public opinion of Georgians. In the referendum held a few months ago, more than 70% citizens expressed their willingness to join NATO. Secondly, NATO announced the Bucharest resolution in April 2008, in which NATO made a commitment to Georgia's accession. In this sense, the key question is not whether Georgia will join NATO, but when Georgia will join NATO. As a political and military alliance formed in the Cold War era, NATO adopts the same defensive strategy, that is, an armed attack on a member country will be regarded as an attack on all the contracting countries, and all the contracting countries have the obligation to provide military assistance to the violated member countries. In Georgia's view, NATO's defense framework is its strong backing against Russia. It is the best choice for Saakashvili regime to save its political decline and survive by vigorously promoting Georgia's accession to NATO, and even drawing up a timetable for Georgia's accession to NATO as soon as possible.
However, the Georgian army's military action in South Ossetia made the Tbilisi government's goal of joining NATO clear: to finally solve all the problems facing South Ossetia and Abkhazia by force. This trend is reflected in the pro-Georgian media. The cold war anti-Russian intuition of some media has also been clamored.
As a neighbor of Russia, Georgia's accession to NATO, like Ukraine's accession to NATO, is totally unacceptable to Russia. Once Georgia joins NATO, it means that Russia will lose its strategic buffer zone with NATO and directly border NATO, and Russia's border will also be directly threatened by NATO troops. Georgia's accession to NATO is a red line that Russia has drawn. Crossing this red line will inevitably lead to a strong rebound in Russia, and Europe will inevitably return to the era of armed confrontation.
There is no doubt that Russia will use all national resources to prevent Georgia from joining NATO. Georgia's demand for Russia far exceeds Georgia's value to Russia. Russia can take the following measures to warn and prevent Georgian authorities from joining NATO: (1) announcing the ban on importing Georgian agricultural products and wine. Agriculture is the pillar industry of Georgia, and the export of agricultural products and wine is the main source of foreign exchange income of Georgian authorities. Once Russia issues a ban on importing Georgian agricultural products and wine, Georgia's economy, which has lost its number one export market, will be hit hard. Georgia's domestic market is very small, and both agriculture and wine industry depend on foreign exports. The implementation of import ban will increase the unemployment rate in Georgia by about 2-4%. (2) Freeze Georgia's financial assets in Russia and suspend investment projects in Georgia. Since Saakashvili came to power, the United States has been arming Georgia, and Georgia's defense expenditure has increased more than 30 times in just five years, consuming a lot of foreign exchange reserves obtained by exporting agricultural products and wine. Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis, similar to some countries in Eastern Europe and Latin America, Georgia, with its meager foreign exchange reserves and structural defects in its financial system, is facing the risk of national bankruptcy. If Russia imposes financial sanctions on Georgia, the confidence of Georgian investors will fall to the bottom, the flight of foreign capital will be more serious, and Georgia's fragile financial market will collapse. (3) Completely suspend military exchanges and cooperation with Georgia and freeze all cooperation projects related to weapons, equipment and systems. Due to the high cost of comprehensive transformation of weapons, equipment and systems, even with the annual military assistance from the United States, it is impossible for the Georgian army to realize the transformation from Soviet-style weapon system to American-style weapon system in a short time. Therefore, if Russia decides to completely terminate its military cooperation with Georgia, the Georgian army really needs to consider whether it has the ability to defend itself. In addition, Russia can take a series of measures to prevent Georgia from joining NATO, such as stopping natural gas supply, interrupting postal services and transportation, and restricting visa issuance. In short, Russia's strong opposition will make the Georgian authorities' attempt to join NATO never succeed easily.
On the issue of Georgia's entry into NATO, there are obvious differences and even obvious differences among NATO members. In order to suppress Russia's strategic space and curb Russia's re-rise, the United States and Britain have been pushing Georgia to join NATO. The Czech Republic, Poland and other eastern European countries also strongly support Georgia's accession to NATO, because Georgia's accession to NATO will share the political pressure and military risks from Russia after their accession to NATO. However, France, Germany and other EU- leading countries are cautious about Georgia's accession to NATO, and they are clearly opposed to setting a timetable for Georgia's accession to NATO. France, Germany and other countries are worried that once Georgia joins NATO, the Georgian authorities, supported by NATO military forces, may once again provoke Russia militarily, thus triggering a full-scale confrontation and even armed conflict between NATO and Russia, and Europe will be in the front line of conflict with Russia. If there is no agreement within NATO on Georgia's joining NATO, the prospect of Georgia's joining NATO will be quite slim.
What is NATO like today and tomorrow? Such a question has existed for a long time, but no one has been able to give a final answer.
Some people say that NATO is moving from a purely military alliance to a political alliance. There is no war where NATO is located. However, let's see what happens in the near future.
1999: before attacking yugoslavia without the authorization of the United nations, an unprecedented propaganda offensive lasted for several months. The consequences of war are civilian casualties and economic destruction. However, the loss of the army is not great.
2003: The US-based military alliance went to war against Iraq, claiming that it was based on the intelligence of the German Secret Intelligence Agency, which was unaudited and claimed that Iraq possessed weapons of mass destruction. In Iraq, the United States and allied forces also tried to get NATO involved. The war has caused 500 thousand deaths today. People are already familiar with the shocking news from there.
Military operations in Afghanistan: Although the United Nations has approved military operations in Afghanistan, the interests of most people in Afghanistan have not been taken seriously, and the Afghan people have been seriously hurt. Almost every day, news comes out that NATO warplanes accidentally bombed civilian villages.
The United States and NATO have also invested heavily in Georgian projects and "armed training" programs without the consent of member States. Georgia, a poor small country, suddenly increased its defense expenditure by 30 times in five years. What's more, this country is ruled by an unpredictable person, and even those who support him can't make him come to his senses.
Russia has repeatedly warned that Saakashvili's arming of Georgia will bring violence to the Caucasus, but it does not know that the explosive power in this region exceeds that in the Balkans. However, Russia's warnings were ignored. Saakashvili's provocation against South Ossetia, the crimes committed by Georgian soldiers against the people there, and the brutal slaughter of Russian peacemakers all prove that our actions are just.
If NATO absorbs another country under such circumstances, and the top leaders of this country are willing to commit genocide, then Europe will fall into the stage of armed confrontation. This will be a huge disaster for NATO itself, Europe and even the whole world.