The prospect is bright, but it will face many challenges in the short term. At present, the international situation is complicated and domestic risks are increasing. In this case, the People's Bank of China has expanded the floating range of RMB exchange rate, which highlights the country's determination to unswervingly push forward the reform and let the market play a decisive role in resource allocation, which will make the foundation of China's economic growth more solid in the future. But in the short term, the increase of exchange rate flexibility does make enterprises pay more attention to exchange rate changes than before, and also makes the country's macro policy take exchange rate changes into account, which is a new challenge for enterprises and the government.
The expansion of the floating range of RMB exchange rate is in line with our expectations, and the market also has expectations. At present, there is no basis for a sharp appreciation of the renminbi, and there is no possibility of a sharp depreciation. After the appreciation of 5438+ 10 in June and the depreciation since February, people's views on the trend of RMB are increasingly divided. It is indeed a good opportunity for the People's Bank of China to expand the floating range of RMB exchange rate under such circumstances. In fact, when the People's Bank of China expanded the floating range of RMB from 0.5% to 1% two years ago, it faced a similar situation.
The increase of RMB exchange rate flexibility will expand the space of monetary policy. The smaller the flexibility of RMB exchange rate, the worse the effectiveness of monetary policy, which is the reason why China's monetary policy has been in a passive state for a long time. The expansion of the floating range of RMB exchange rate will provide greater flexibility for monetary policy. On the one hand, the exchange rate can play a greater role in regulating the balance of payments, such as stimulating exports and curbing imports through depreciation; Reduce the pressure of capital inflow. On the other hand, it can also make monetary policies such as open market operation, reserve ratio and interest rate more active.
The RMB is still facing depreciation pressure in the short term, and the enthusiasm for RMB asset revaluation may cool down in stages. The expansion and fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is not necessarily related to the rise and fall of RMB, but more influenced by the exit of QE in the United States, economic growth data of China and financial risks. At present, from an international perspective, the United States will still reduce the code QE according to the steps of reducing $654.38+000 billion per meeting. Domestically, the PMI is declining, the growth is weak, and exposure at default, the RMB is still facing depreciation pressure in the short term. Previously, the expectation of unilateral appreciation of RMB was one of the reasons for the rise of RMB asset prices. Under the pressure of RMB depreciation in stages, the enthusiasm for RMB asset revaluation will gradually cool down.
The inflow of hot money will be restrained to some extent. Inflow of hot money (including financing copper transactions, etc.). ) mainly earn the spread and exchange difference between RMB and foreign currency. The expansion of RMB floating range makes these transactions have to consider the fluctuation of exchange rate, which will increase the cost of hot money inflow to a certain extent and curb the inflow of hot money. Considering these factors, we estimate that the foreign exchange account may be reduced to1.50,000 -2 trillion this year.