Main economic indicators and forecasts of Zambia
2000
200 1
2002
2003e
2004f
2005 f
Real GDP growth rate (%) 1
3.3
five
1.4
7. 1
5.2
5. 1
Fiscal balance (%GDP) 1
-5.9
-7.94
-4. 19
- 1.79
-3.4
-3.2
Annual inflation rate (%) 1
30. 1
18.7
26.7
17.2
18
17.4
Exchange rate (ZMK/ USD) 2
4 158
3830.4
4334.4
4645.5
4850
4900
Export value (FOB price, USD 100 million) 1
7.46
8.84
9. 16
1 1. 17
10.50
1 1.50
Import value (FOB, USD billion) 1
9.78
12.53
12.04
13.88
13.00
14.00
Trade balance (USD 100 million) 1
-2.32
-3.69
-2.88
-2.7 1
-2.50
-2.50
Current account (billion dollars) 2
-5.97
-7.30
-6.49
-6.27
-4.50
-4.50
Foreign exchange reserves (excluding gold, billion US dollars) 2
2.45
1.83
4.5 1
2.48
3.50
3.75
Foreign debt (USD 100 million) 1
63. 1
72.7
64.9
62.7
65.0
65.0
Note: 1. e/f = estimation and prediction of body mass index; 2. Source: 1 Central Bank of Zambia, 2 IMF.
Since independence, Zambia has always been a single economic country that relies heavily on the exploitation of copper, cobalt and other non-ferrous metals, especially copper mines. Even in the 1990s, when the output and export volume of copper mines declined and the world copper price gradually reached a low point, the output value of copper mining in Zambia still accounted for about 10% of GDP, the export value accounted for more than 50%, and the employed population accounted for 9%. In 2002, of Zambia's export income of $920 million, traditional products mainly copper and cobalt were exported of $690 million, accounting for 75%. Considering the pulling effect on upstream and downstream industries, including manufacturing industries such as building materials and chemicals, infrastructure construction such as roads, electricity and telecommunications, and even supporting education, medical care and community development in mining areas, in fact, the contribution of mining industry to Zambia's national economy is far greater than this. Since 2004, copper prices in the international market have risen and remained at a high level, which is a rare opportunity for Zambia, a copper-producing country. As the economic pillar, the mining industry began to get rid of the wandering situation and showed a growth momentum. With the recovery of Zambia's economy, Zambia's mining investment has once again become a hot spot.
I. Copper resources
Zambia's copper resources are a northwest copper belt, 200-250 kilometers long and 65 kilometers wide. Zambia-Congo copper belt is the largest sedimentary copper belt in the world. In 2002, Zambia's proven copper reserves were 65.438+0.2 billion tons, with an average grade of 2.5%. In 2002, a new copper mine with a reserve of 480 million tons was discovered in Longwana, Northwest Province. It is said that this is one of the largest undeveloped copper mines in the world. It was jointly explored by Equinox Resources Ltd of Australia and Phelps Dodge of Canada, and is currently looking for cooperation and investment partners for joint development. However, from the geological conditions, the mine is not yet mature, and because the ore body contains irregular distribution of uranium, it has radioactive pollution and involves the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency. According to other data, Zambia's copper reserves in 2004 were 2 billion tons, but further exploration is needed.
Zambia was once one of the most important copper producers in the world. 1964 When Zambia became independent, the copper output was 697,000 tons, accounting for 13% of the world's total output, and reached a peak of 740,000 tons in 1969, and then gradually declined. Since the second half of 1990s, Zambia's copper production has dropped to about 300,000 tons per year, and its share in the world has also dropped to only about 2%.
Main copper mines in Zambia and their reserves distribution
Mine (country where the subsidiary is located)
Reserves (million tons)
Grade (%)
Statistical time
Konkola (multinational consortium)
100
4.33
200 1 year
Chi bruma (South Africa)
8.3
3.50
200 1 year
Multinational joint venture
12 1
3.76
1988
Nkana (Canada)
323
2.2 1
200 1 year
Chambishi (China)
33.5
2.55
200 1 year
Luan Xia (India)
53.4
2.37
200 1 year
Muvrila (Canada)
39
3. 16
200 1 year
Kansanshi (USA)
24.2
2.90
1988
Source: Ministry of Mining Development, Zambia.
With the completion of privatization of all mines in March 2000, investment increased, production gradually recovered, and output increased year by year. In 2003, Zambia's copper output was 3,49817 tons, and its export volume reached 329,564 tons, a record high of 10, with an export value of 655 million US dollars, accounting for 57.6% of the total export volume of11370,000 US dollars. Since the second half of 2003, copper prices have risen rapidly. In March 2004, the average price of the London Metal Exchange reached $3,000 per ton, but it has remained at a high level of $2,800-3,000 per ton, although it has declined since then. Stimulated by this factor, Zambia's copper output continued to rise sharply in the first half of 2004, reaching 196302 tons, up 23.4% year-on-year. Export volume 192798 tons, with an export value of 485 million US dollars. At the beginning of 2005, the average price of the London Metal Exchange reached $3,300 per ton, which further stimulated the enthusiasm for investing in copper mines.
Zambia Copper Production and Export (Tons)
200 1
2002
2003
2004 (1-June)
yield
298 150
340367
3498 17
196302
volume of exports
296926
349000
329564
192798
Source: Zambia Ministry of Finance and National Planning, Report of the Bank of Zambia.
After the open-pit mines and rich ore beds are mined, the output of the developed mines is bound to decline, and Zambia lacks the huge funds needed to develop deep mines and new mines. Therefore, the decline in Zambia's copper production and the subsequent reduction in its contribution rate to economic development are inevitable. Take Konkola Copper Mine, the largest mine in Zambia, as an example. The most potential resource is the Deep Mine Development Project (KDMP). It is estimated that there are 654.38 billion tons of copper ore with a grade of 4.33% and a mining life of about 20 years. In June 5438 +2002 10, Anglo-American Plc, the former largest shareholder of Concordia Copper Mine, announced its withdrawal from investment, and the Zambian government began to look for new strategic investment partners. The main purpose is to develop Concordia deep mine project, which requires investors to invest at least $600 million in start-up capital.
Judging from the current economic situation, it is difficult for Zambia to revive the copper mining industry without the support of foreign investors, and it is also difficult to return to the production level in the 1960s and 1970s in the foreseeable future. However, judging from the development of the world economy, Zambia will still be one of the main producing areas of copper mines and has a more important strategic position.
Two. Cobalt mineral resources
Cobalt in Zambia is associated with copper, which is concentrated in Copper Belt Province and Northwest Province in the north and northwest. According to the report of USGS 1997, Zambia's cobalt resources are about 540,000 tons.
Due to the insufficient investment capacity of the former Zambia United Copper Company, Zambia's copper and cobalt production fluctuated greatly in the 1990 s. In recent years, the output of cobalt has basically stabilized at 3,000-4,000 tons, accounting for 15-20% of the global output. In the first half of 2004, the cobalt output of various mines was affected by concentrated copper mining, and the output was 1080 tons, which was 32.5% lower than that of 1600 tons in the same period last year. From June to May, 5438, the export volume of cobalt was 995 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 24.4%.
Production and export of cobalt in Zambia (tons)
age
200 1
2002
2003
2004 (1-June)
yield
3986
39 13
3202
1080
volume of exports
472 1
40 16
3374
995*
Source: Ministry of Mining Development of Zambia; Bank of Zambia quarterly report
Third, other metals.
In addition to copper and cobalt, Zambia also has nonferrous and ferrous metal mineral resources such as lead, zinc, iron, manganese and nickel.
Lead and zinc: The proven lead-zinc ore reserves are about 5 million tons, with an average zinc grade of 25% and an average lead grade of 10%.
Iron: mainly distributed in the central and western regions, with an estimated reserve of about 900 million tons and iron content of 50%. Among them, Mongbwa in the central province has proven reserves of 65.438+900 million tons, and there are two rich mines with a grade of more than 62%. Zambia's iron ore has not been developed so far.
Manganese: Most manganese ores in Zambia have low grade and low value. Manganese ore with industrial value is located in Mansa, luapula province. According to the data of 1985, the reserves with grade of 60-70% are 1.5 million tons.
Nickel: It is produced in the south of Lusaka, and its resource status is unknown. In July, 2004, Australian Albidon Mining Company invested $654.38+500,000 to start geological exploration of nickel deposits in this area.
Four. Gem resources
There are many kinds of precious stones in Zambia, including amethyst, topaz, emerald, tourmaline, garnet, aquamarine and diamond. However, most gems are mined by small private enterprises, with small scale and low processing level. Most gems are traded through informal channels, so the statistics are not perfect. The Zambian government plans to establish a gem exchange to bring gem trading into the formal market.
The "Private Sector Development Plan" funded by the European Union began in 2000, providing long-term credit support and technical cooperation for small and medium-sized enterprises, including subsidizing gem mines to purchase equipment. In 2003, the project also sponsored Zambian gem miners to participate in international gem exhibitions held in China, Hongkong and Shenzhen. In July 2004, the World Bank provided Zambia with a loan of US$ 2,865,438+500,000 for the "Economic Development and Diversification Support Project", aiming at developing the gem, agriculture and tourism sectors.
Five, other non-metallic minerals and industrial minerals
Zambia is rich in other mineral resources, such as apatite, limestone, graphite, barite, marble and coal.
Apatite: widely distributed in east, middle, north and Lusaka. According to the data of 1985, the proven reserves are as follows: Chilembwe reserves in Dongfang Province10.5 million tons, grade 15% P2O5 (buried depth of 50m); Nkombwe reserves in northern province are 6.5438+600,000 tons, with a grade of 8% P2O5; Rufunsa in Lusaka has a reserve of 2 million tons and a grade of 3% P2O5.
Limestone: widely distributed between Chilanga and Kafue in Lusaka, but the data of reserves and grade are unknown. At present, there is only one cement plant in Zambia, and the products are in short supply and the market price is relatively high (about 1 10 USD/ton). Many enterprises in our country are interested in building cement plants in Zambia and send people to inspect them. However, due to the lack of information on the reserves, grade and physical and chemical analysis of limestone ore, it is necessary to put it into exploration first, so there is no substantial progress at present. In addition, Ndola Lime Mine, which is undergoing privatization bidding, has proven limestone reserves of190,000 tons, which can be mined for 40 years. The first privatization bid was held in 2002, but it failed because there were no qualified bidders. The mine is 50 km away from Chambishi Copper Mine/KLOC-0. In the planning of Chambishi Industrial Park, there is an idea of building a cement plant.
Coal: Zambia's coal resources are mainly distributed in southern provinces. Maamba Collieries is the only state-owned coal mine in Zambia, with a maximum thickness of 10 m and an average thickness of 5.5 m, with an estimated reserve of 78 million tons and excellent coal quality. However, due to poor management, the assets are insolvent (the debt is $7.5 million). The government intends to privatize the company, but the two privatizations of 1997 and 200 1 failed because the acquirer withdrew again. At present, the government has commercialized mines, hired new management, and is still looking for investment partners. The government also said that if new investors are interested in buying mines, the government can consider participating in the debt. In addition, my private enterprise, Crane Company, invested more than 700,000 US dollars to operate coal mines in southern province, with an annual output of nearly 654.38+10,000 tons, and established a good sales channel. Chilanga Cement Factory and Mulongguxi Textile Factory are both old customers of the company. In terms of reserves, Zambia's coal resources can basically meet the demand.