The financial tsunami landed in many countries around the world, and in the face of possible economic recession, the whole world is taking measures to save the market. In the third quarter, China's GDP growth rate was only 9%. What is the future trend of China's economy? I'd like to make some comments.
The economic downturn is hard to reverse.
According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on the 20th, the GDP in the first three quarters increased by 9.9% year-on-year, down 2.3 percentage points from the same period last year. Based on this calculation, the GDP growth rate in the third quarter was only 9%. So many people are worried about the economic trend of China in the fourth quarter and 2009.
In fact, the economic downturn has been quite serious. According to the earlier announcement, the growth rate of electricity consumption has dropped to 3% in September and 9.9% in June-September. According to the empirical value, the economic growth rate corresponding to this electricity consumption level should be at least below 9%. The main problem lies in the decline of export and investment contributions, of which the export contribution decreased by 0.9 points. Now it seems that the economic downturn has intensified, and it is difficult to judge when it will bottom out, because there is a risk of a hard landing in China's economy in the future. Once it happens, it may take a long time. There will be a lag period from the financial turmoil to the sharp drop in global aggregate demand, so the middle of next year will be a very difficult period.
Four factors affect inflationary pressure.
In September, domestic CPI rose by 4.6%, down 0.3 percentage points from last month; PPI rose by 9. 1%, down by 1.0 percentage points from last month. After the decline of PPI and CPI, the fourth quarter and 2009
What is the inflation situation?
In fact, the decline in CPI is mainly due to the sharp disappearance of the hikes, and the decline in PPI is mainly due to the recent sharp decline in the international commodity market. At present, domestic inflation pressure has eased, and inflation is expected to continue to fall in the fourth quarter, but there is great uncertainty about inflation in 2009. {The copyright of this answer belongs to ◇ч◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇◇ ◇.
The unprecedented rescue plan of western countries will always be the potential source of medium and long-term inflation. At home, there are several factors worth noting:
1. After the shock, will the prices of primary products such as energy and grain rise? Because after the market liquidity slows down, funds have to find a way out. If there are no new industrial highlights in the American economy, there may be only three destinations: consumer credit, emerging markets and energy resources markets. As a result, the rebound in the commodity market has given PPI new impetus. 2. The weakening of financial capacity will force the government to relax price control, thus releasing the long-standing inflationary pressure. 3. After the closure of a large number of manufacturing enterprises, the supply level of manufactured goods will generate new inflationary pressure. 4. The expansionary monetary policy and expansionary fiscal policy that have to be adopted will push up prices from the level of money supply.
The biggest pressure for enterprises is the sharp drop in external demand.
In the first three quarters, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 15.2% year-on-year, down by 3.3 percentage points compared with the same period of last year, among which, it increased by 1 1.4% in September. This data reflects the deterioration of business conditions, and it is a high probability event that the growth rate returns to single digits. Enterprises face four major pressures: exchange rate appreciation, rising raw material costs, rising labor costs, and sudden drop in external demand. If the European and American economies fall into a deep recession, it will be fatal for a country whose exports have already accounted for 40% of GDP.
Now it seems that exports remained stable in the third quarter, mainly due to the continuation of orders in the first half of the year. However, the US financial crisis did not spread from the market to the real economy from June 5438 to September, and the US economy has maintained a growth rate of 2%. However, in late September after the Lehman incident, this feeling was obviously different. The firewall between the market and the real economy was destroyed. In the next few quarters, the US economy will enter a significant recession, and the spillover effect will spread all over the world, and China's exports are very pessimistic. It is likely to fall back to single-digit growth in the first half of next year.
The possibility of RMB depreciation will increase next year.
By the end of September 2008, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves was US$ 65,438+US$ 0.9 trillion, up 32.92% year-on-year. In September, foreign exchange reserves increased by 21400 million US dollars, far lower than the trade surplus of 29.3 billion US dollars in that month. On the whole, capital inflows dropped sharply in July, August and September. After the financial tsunami, it should be a trend for international capital to leave emerging markets, and it is happening. When the American economy is deleveraging, consumer credit will shrink sharply, and the economic prospect of the corresponding emerging market export model is pessimistic. At the same time, it is also an important factor to sell assets and withdraw a large amount of capital to make up for the losses of financial institutions in the home country and meet the requirements of deleveraging financial adjustment. If this trend continues, the months when China's foreign exchange reserves fell after mid-2009 will not be ruled out. In fact, in 2007, China's economy has reached the end of an existing economic model, and the progress of labor productivity has shown an obvious turning point. Before China's new model appeared, the appreciation space of RMB's real exchange rate had been exhausted. This is the clearest overseas. Singapore 1 year RMB exchange rate with no principal delivery has been obviously discounted. The possibility of RMB exchange rate depreciation is increasing in 2009.
China's manufacturing industry is very fragile.
How much impact will the global economic slowdown have on China's manufacturing industry? In my opinion, this is disastrous. Because China's manufacturing industry is a big-in and big-out structure, resources and markets are in the hands of the United States and Europe. On the one hand, China's manufacturing industry has to bear the pressure of imported inflation such as rising raw material prices; On the other hand, China's manufacturing industry can't transfer the cost pressure outward, because the pricing power of global manufactured goods is not in China, even though China is called "world factory" or "world factory". However, both ends of the modern manufacturing value chain are not controlled by China, and high value-added fields such as R&D, raw material procurement, brand design, sales channel management, after-sales service and retail monopoly are in the hands of the United States and Europe. China's manufacturing industry only makes orders, not directly facing the final consumers. Such a structure is very fragile, resources and markets are squeezed in both directions, and a large number of enterprises will inevitably close down.
Become an extension of the industrial value chain
Is there any new growth point to support the economy in China? For this problem, we can only create new economic growth points through the reform that hurts the muscles and bones. Macroscopically, it is mainly to adjust the investment and consumption structure. By accelerating the reform of the price formation mechanism of resource products and factors, and by accelerating the adjustment of wealth distribution among residents, governments, enterprises and residents, we will firmly turn to an economy dominated by domestic demand and consumption. At the micro level, the so-called enterprise transformation or upgrading is not accurate, not to drive us away from labor-intensive and move in, which can't solve the problem. The problem of China's manufacturing industry is that it is at the low end of the value distribution chain and is subject to people in the international division of labor.
Therefore, the key issue is to extend the industrial value chain. Only extend to both ends, such as raw material procurement, R&D, logistics, warehousing, sales network, brand and so on. Whether it can create modern manufacturing and modern service industries, so as to achieve consistency with macro goals.