In order to tide over the difficulties of economic chaos and production recession, and break the vicious circle of shortage of raw materials, insufficient start-up, insufficient supply of materials, and increasing inflation, the Japanese government implemented the famous tilted production mode from 1947 to 195 1, concentrating on increasing the production of basic industries such as coal and steel, and making the national economy re-enter the reproduction cycle to (6544).
However, the economic recovery in the tilted production period was realized under the protection of an extremely abnormal system, and various unstable factors still greatly restricted Japan's economic recovery, mainly in the following aspects:
First, the external economy is closed and depends on American aid. One of the characteristics of Japan's modern capitalist economic development is its heavy dependence on overseas markets. In World War II, Japan's foreign aggression and expansion led to the trade blockade of the United States and other allies fighting against Japan, which caused a fatal blow to Japan. After Japan's defeat and surrender, the trade restrictions imposed by the Allies on Japan have not been lifted. Japan's foreign trade and foreign exchange business are directly managed and supervised by the occupation authorities, and the import of industrial equipment and production raw materials is kept to a minimum except for a small amount of daily necessities. In the plight of raw materials shortage and industrial production, the Japanese government is forced to adopt a tilted production model policy focusing on developing domestic resources. As Japanese scholars said to Xitai, this is a kind of "import substitution policy under the pressure of trade blockade". [4] But in the final analysis, this policy is only a stopgap measure, because coal, the "only available" limited resource, will be exhausted sooner or later, and then we must seek a way out through foreign trade and international division of labor.
Restricting imports leads to shortage of raw materials, underemployment, decline in output and lack of materials, which in turn leads to a sharp decline in exports. According to statistics, during the period from 1945 to 1948, the import and export volume was15140,000 US dollars, with a deficit of 979 million US dollars. This huge trade deficit was made up by American aid to Japan. In the same period, the total amount of US aid to Japan has reached US$ 6,543.8+58 million, accounting for 69.9% of Japan's total imports. [5]
Obviously, as long as the door to trade restrictions with Japan is not completely opened, there will be no way out for the Japanese economy, and there will be no real stability, revitalization, self-reliance and development.
Second, strict domestic economic control. Japan's economic control began at the beginning of the Showa economic crisis, and was fully implemented according to the needs of "total war" after the full-scale invasion of China. In the early post-war period, although some wartime control laws were abolished and various control associations were dissolved, due to the deterioration of economic conditions, control was fully restored from 1946, and the implementation of inclined production mode really depended on the guarantee of economic control. The main ways of this control are: material control. The scope of control includes almost all means of production such as coal and steel, as well as major means of subsistence such as grain. The control of materials from production to distribution is under the government's plan and strict management supervision. Price control. According to the price control order, almost all commodities are forced to set open prices, and the controlled varieties are classified into more than 10 thousand according to the middle. In order to control the overall price level, the Japanese government designates stable materials such as coal, steel and grain, and requires them to be rationed according to the government's open price, and the loss-making part enjoys financial subsidies, which is called price adjustment fee. In the same period, the Japanese government also provided huge subsidies for import and export trade. On the whole, financial subsidies over the years accounted for more than 20% of the total national fiscal expenditure. [6] Capital control. Due to years of foreign aggression, at the beginning of Japan's defeat, "the national finance, important enterprises and national household expenditures were all in deficit", [7] and the reproduction investment funds were in a hurry. In order to ensure the capital demand of the tilted industries, the Japanese government set up a revival treasury, and invested 654.38+026 billion yen in government loans within two years, accounting for about 70% of the total equipment loans in China. Among them, the government loans accepted by coal, electric power, shipping and steel accounted for 98. 1%, 92.9%, 84% and 73.4% of the total loans respectively. [8] It can be said that the production of key industries is basically started by government financial funds. Labor control. Labor management and labor supply originally relied on the automatic adjustment of the market and the independent behavior of private enterprises, but under the control system, the government intervened in many ways. The most typical example is the state-owned coal mine, that is, private state-owned, and coal mine production is carried out in an all-round way according to the government plan. At the same time, the state also directly intervened to solve the problems of miners' life, treatment and housing, formulated labor rules and regulations, and sent government officials to the work site to supervise and direct production. Economic control is only an extreme means to deal with special problems in a special period, and there are various disadvantages. No matter what kind of social system, as long as it is a normal development period, control is by no means an ideal method. It was a serious task at that time to cancel the regulation and restore the function of the market mechanism.
Third, the sustained development of inflation. After a period of hesitation, the Japanese government chose the latter between the priority of currency stability and the priority of production recovery. During the production period of "production first", although the price increase was controlled by various means, the inflation rate remained high, and the consumer price rose seven times in two years, which was comparable to the increase from defeat to 1946. [9] In addition to the root cause of the absolute shortage of supply, the direct cause of inflation lies in the fiscal and financial policies of the Japanese government. First, the huge trade and price subsidies mentioned above make the national budget deficit year after year; Second, the government's financial loans. At that time, the deficit-operated government finance could not provide surplus funds. However, in order to ensure the capital supply of the tilted industries, the government still issued huge financial loans, which were funded by government bonds (Fuxing bonds). Japanese banks that subscribed for 70% Fuxing bonds had no choice but to issue more paper money. This is how the so-called "inflation recovery" happened.
The evil consequences of inflation can only be blamed on the people in the end. Because the rise of wages can't keep up with the rise of prices, workers' lives are difficult, workers' movements are one after another, and economic instability causes social instability. This is the social and economic reality of Japan before the implementation of the Dodge Plan. On the other hand, during the two years from 1947 to 1948, great changes have taken place in the international political situation and the situation in the Far East. From the end of 1946 to the beginning of 1947, the two World War II allies of the United States and the Soviet Union parted ways. As soon as the prologue of the cold war started, it became more and more intense. In this process, the United States completely changed its occupation policy towards Japan.
The change of American policy towards Japan was first manifested in the suspension of demilitarization and democratization reform, and then from 65438 to 0947, Japan's compensation plan was eased again and again, and at the same time, material assistance to Japan was increased. By the beginning of 1948, US Army Secretary Royal simply issued a statement, openly claiming to turn Japan into a fortress against the threat of * * *. [10] In the same year, the revolutionary situation in China developed rapidly, and the People's Liberation Army entered the stage of strategic counterattack. The U.S. government realized that "China is rapidly falling under the rule of * * * *" and [1 1] stepped up the pace of adjusting the Far East strategy, so the role of this Japanese chess piece is even more important. At the same time, the opposition Democratic Party of the United States won the mid-term election with 1947, criticizing the government's policy of aiding Japan for increasing the tax burden of American citizens. Under the clamor of "Cold War Theory" and "Taxpayer Theory", the U.S. government sent some important officials to visit the State Council, such as the Vice Ministers of War Stryker and Dolpa, the Planning Minister of the Ministry of National Defense Kennan, and the Deputy Director of the Bureau of Investigation and Statistics of the Federal Reserve Board, and finally completed the adjustment of the government's domestic policy toward Japan according to their suggestions. 1948 10 10. On 7 October, the National Security Council of the United States formally made the resolution "Policy Suggestions on Japan-NSCL3-2" and decided to stop all reforms in Japan. "The main goal of Japan's policy in the future is economic revival." [12]1February 10, the US government deployed the "Japan Economic Stability Plan" to the occupation authorities in the form of "intermediate instructions", which is the programmatic document of Japan's economic policy after NSCL3-2 resolution. This plan, which is often called "Nine Principles of Economy", requires the Japanese government to "adopt a firm and comprehensive policy" to prevent "all-round and sustained inflation" in order to "ensure that all conditions for determining the single exchange rate can be prepared as soon as possible". In order to achieve this goal, we must achieve a balanced budget; Strengthen tax collection and management; Control financial loans; Stabilize wages; Strengthen price control; Strengthen foreign trade and foreign exchange management; Improve the rationing system; Increase production; Improve the efficiency of grain distribution. [13] If we analyze the contents of the "Nine Principles of Economy" slightly, we can point out that the implementation steps of this plan are to achieve stability first, then unify the exchange rate, lift trade restrictions, and let Japan return to the international economic society. The important means to achieve stability is to gradually strengthen control, planning and management. Here, the plan itself ignores the connection between domestic economic mechanism and foreign economic mechanism, that is, the economic control that Japan is implementing is not so much to ease or even abolish as soon as possible, but rather to think that its control is insufficient and inefficient. This shows that the policy system stipulated in the "Nine Principles of Economy" is still incomplete.
However, Joseph M. Dodge, who was sent to Japan to carry out the stable economic plan, based on his rich experience. By flexibly grasping the "principles" put forward by the US government, Japan's economy has undergone drastic changes.