. I think there are three reasons:

First, resolve the expectations and pressures of the state and various funds on RMB appreciation;

Second, gradually get rid of the model of pegging to the dollar and prepare for the renminbi to become a hard currency;

Third, take this opportunity to narrow the exchange rate difference between Hong Kong dollar and RMB, and strive to reach 1: 1. Then in due course, RMB, Hong Kong dollar and Australian dollar will merge to form a single currency.

Influencing factors of RMB appreciation

The renminbi is pegged to the dollar. RMB has been appreciating for nearly 10 years, and the appreciation of RMB is in the form of RMB exchange rate decline, that is, the amount of RMB converted from 1 USD is reduced. The average RMB exchange rate 1994 was 8.62 12, 1995 was 8.3490, 1996 was 8.3 143, and in 2003 it was 8.2770 (National Bureau of Statistics, 2004). Since 200 1, the RMB exchange rate has been relatively stable at 8.2770 for three consecutive years, and the cumulative average of RMB exchange rate in June-May 2004 is still 8.2770. Since 2003, the RMB has once again faced the pressure of appreciation, and the international calls for RMB appreciation are getting higher and higher. The United States, the European Union and Japan are also constantly pressing for RMB appreciation. Theoretical circles at home and abroad have also estimated the "RMB appreciation interval" based on various models, with the high estimation reaching more than 50% and the low estimation reaching more than 15%.

The reason of RMB appreciation comes from the internal motivation and external pressure of China's economic system. The internal influencing factors are balance of payments, foreign exchange reserves, price level and inflation, economic growth and interest rate level. Since 1994, China's current account of international payments has been in a surplus state. In 2002, China's foreign exchange reserves reached 286.4 billion US dollars, an increase of 5.55 times compared with 1994. From the perspective of PPP, the price level in China is only 265,438+0% of that in the United States (World Bank, 2002). From the difference of inflation rate, the average inflation rate in the United States since 1998 is 2.23%, and the average inflation rate (CPI) in China is -0.3%, which is 2.53% lower than that in the United States. From 1978 to 2003, the gross domestic product (GDP) of China increased by 9.3% annually. In these 25 years, China's economic growth is undoubtedly the fastest in the world. Judging from the interest rate difference between China and the United States, china interbank offered rate was 2.7% at the end of 2002, and the federal funds rate in the United States was 1.25%. China's short-term interest rate is 1.5 percentage points higher than that of the United States. In China, the RMB deposit rate is also higher than the US dollar deposit rate by 1.4 percentage points. In addition, since the first half of 2002, the dollar has weakened from strong to weak, and the RMB has depreciated with the dollar, which is contrary to the trend of RMB appreciation. With the rapid growth of relative labor productivity in China (1993- 1999), the growth rate of labor productivity in China's manufacturing industry is at least 1.5 percentage points higher than that in the United States. On the contrary, the devaluation of the RMB with the US dollar makes the trade deficit of countries with trade deficits bigger and bigger, which constitutes the external pressure of RMB appreciation.

economic analysis

Economically speaking, there may be the following main reasons:

First, the RMB exchange rate has not been adjusted for nearly 10 years since 1994, and China's economy and national strength have undergone profound changes during this 10 year.

Second, since the 1990s, some authoritative international institutions and trading partners have always believed that the RMB is undervalued to varying degrees.

Third, according to the theory of international economics, the excessive foreign exchange surplus itself indicates that the foreign currency is overpriced, the local currency is overpriced and the local currency is under pressure to appreciate.

Fourth, since 200 1, all major currencies in the world, including Southeast Asian countries, have greatly appreciated against the US dollar. Only the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has not been adjusted, that is, the RMB has actually depreciated sharply against other currencies following the US dollar. Not to mention whether the RMB was excessively devalued or undervalued in the 1990s, it is only said that the currencies of other countries have greatly appreciated against the US dollar in recent years, and only the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar has remained unchanged. Judging from this alone, the value of the RMB against the US dollar may be underestimated.

(3) International political analysis

The issue of RMB exchange rate is not only an economic issue, but also an international political issue. Some scholars have pointed out that there are other reasons behind some western countries' frequent calls for RMB appreciation. Some are out of jealousy, some are to divert domestic accusations against the authorities, and some are to win votes from domestic manufacturing industries. For example, western countries simply link the value of RMB with the decline of domestic manufacturing industry, trying to force RMB to appreciate. The reason for the reduction of employment opportunities in the United States is not China, but the invisible hand of global competition. The reasons why foreign countries clamor for RMB appreciation are nothing more than the following: First, the RMB exchange rate is too low. It has been suggested that the RMB exchange rate should be set at about US$ 65,438+0 to 4.2 yuan RMB. two ......

On the Political and Economic Factors of RMB Appreciation

Economic factors: This is inevitable for the development of developing countries, and the developing yen in Japan has also appreciated.

Due to political factors, developed countries, such as the United States and other strong currency countries, embezzle the wealth of appreciating countries through financial leverage, but it will be better as long as the appreciation speed is appropriate.

The impact after appreciation: it affects the export of the appreciating country. Foreign capital has gained some benefits in this process.

However, our people also get some benefits. Just like RMB, it may get more goods or services after appreciation.

How to explain the reasons for RMB appreciation from the perspective of economics?

Reasons for RMB appreciation:

(1) China's national economy has developed rapidly and its international status has gradually improved.

(2) The rapid growth of foreign trade, the inflow of hot money and the increasing demand for RMB.

(C) pressure from the international community, the international community's strong expectations of RMB appreciation

Reasons for RMB appreciation

The direct cause of RMB appreciation is the inflow of international hot money into China.

Why does international hot money flow into China the most?

There are several reasons for the analysis.

The main reason is that the United States implemented the monetary easing policy QE3 some time ago.

Directly lead to

1: The dollar increases and the dollar depreciates.

2. In addition, the United States is in a general election, which needs a low interest rate market environment and hopes to depreciate.

3. Devaluation is beneficial to the United States (import and export, employment, high debt, etc.). )

4. The American economy is weak and the recovery is slow.

5. The confidence of international hot money in the US dollar has declined.

6:。 . . . . . There are many factors, so I won't say them one by one.

As a result, a large number of international hot money has merged into China.

Some columns advocate the appreciation of the renminbi and the depreciation of the dollar.

Reasons for the recent appreciation of RMB

Reasons for RMB appreciation

External factors are mainly continuous pressure from external forces.

At the same time, the economic prospect of the United States is not good, and the "weak dollar" policy is crazy for its own interests.

internal factor

The reason of RMB appreciation comes from the internal motive force of China's economic system. The influencing factors are the balance of payments,

Foreign exchange reserves, prices and inflation, economic growth and interest rates.

The appreciation of RMB is a macro-control measure to alleviate the current "economic overheating" and curb inflation in China.

China's current exchange rate policy is a policy that converges to a fixed exchange rate system. In order to ensure that the RMB exchange rate "rises steadily", China has implemented the policy of "buying foreign exchange and selling local currency", which has led to the rapid growth of foreign exchange holdings and the increase of base currency, resulting in excess liquidity and increasing the difficulty of monetary policy operation. If we reduce the amount of local currency we hold, we will not be able to invest in the domestic salary market to curb the appreciation of the RMB.

Reasons for RMB appreciation

The pressure of RMB appreciation mainly comes from three aspects: first, the market pressure from foreign exchange transactions between countries; Secondly, the game between countries to safeguard their own interests, that is, political pressure; Finally, there is policy pressure. Judging from the current international environment of China's exchange rate system, the market pressure began to weaken but did not disappear, and the political pressure gradually weakened. Whether policy pressure will become the main pressure of exchange rate system reform needs further observation.

RMB exchange rate appreciation has the advantage of 10:

1, which is beneficial to China's import.

2. The cost of manufacturers who depend on the import of raw materials has been reduced.

3. The ability of domestic enterprises to invest abroad has been enhanced.

4. The profits of foreign-invested enterprises in China increased.

5. It is beneficial for talents to study and train abroad.

6. Relieve the pressure of debt repayment.

7. It is more cost-effective to sell assets in China.

8. The international status of China's GDP has improved.

9, increase the national tax revenue

10, the international purchasing power of Chinese people has improved.

The appreciation of RMB exchange rate has six hazards:

1. RMB is not freely convertible under the capital account, which means that the mechanism for determining the exchange rate is not the market, and the change is meaningless;

2. The appreciation of RMB will bring greater deflationary pressure to China;

3. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate will lead to a decline in attracting foreign investment and reduce foreign direct investment in China;

4. It has caused great harm to China's foreign trade export;

5. The appreciation of RMB exchange rate will reduce the profit rate of China enterprises and increase the employment pressure;

6. The fiscal deficit will increase due to the appreciation of RMB exchange rate, which will also affect the stability of monetary policy.