Exchange rate appreciation and house price rise sometimes occur at the same time, but this correlation only shows that RMB exchange rate and house price depend on fundamental factors such as relative labor productivity, and does not mean that RMB exchange rate can affect house prices.
The exchange rate of RMB is determined by the house price in China, and the house price in China is also determined by the exchange rate of RMB, which are two sides of the same coin. Mainly depends on the monetary policy and real estate policy adopted by China since this century.
In the short term, the appreciation of nominal exchange rate is expected to attract short-term capital inflows and push up real estate prices. Appreciation is expected to attract foreign capital inflows. If the central bank does not completely hedge foreign exchange funds, the base currency of the banking system will increase, and the credit constraints of real estate developers will be further relaxed, thus pushing up real estate prices.
In the medium and long term, there is a strong correlation between the real exchange rate and the real estate price, but there is no causal relationship. The real exchange rate is an important variable of economic structure, which reflects the relative price comparison between manufacturing and service industries. The appreciation of the real exchange rate often corresponds to the rise of service prices, while the depreciation of the real exchange rate corresponds to the decline of service prices. The real estate industry is an important part of China's economic service industry.
The depreciation of RMB will lead to a sharp drop in house prices, which is based on the inflow of foreign capital into real estate. The appreciation of RMB will lead to a sharp drop in house prices, which is based on domestic factors. It depends on which side you are on, but the RMB exchange rate has limited impact on housing prices. Don't dwell too much on this. The focus is on housing policies and regulations.