In September, many central banks around the world raised interest rates simultaneously to deal with inflation, which may plunge the world economy into recession and bring crisis to emerging markets and developing economies.
Therefore, as investors, we should take precautions: in the case of real economic recession, which industries can maintain performance and share price growth?
The lessons of the past are the lessons of the future. The most typical case of long-term economic recession is undoubtedly Japan's lost 30 years.
In particular, China and Japan have many similarities, such as some economic development paths, aging and so on, so Japan can really bring some lessons to our future industry development.
1: Prosperity and Decline
Since 197 1 Nixon reformed the international monetary system and promoted the floating exchange rate system, great changes have taken place in the world financial market.
However, with the continued strength of the US dollar, the current account deficit problem in the United States began to appear. By 1984, the international oil price had fallen, and this figure had expanded to 1 125 billion USD.
At the same time, Japan's economy suffered a little setback in the second oil crisis, and trade has been booming for several years. 1985, Japan replaced the United States and became the largest creditor country in the world. "Japanese goods" are everywhere in the world, and even many Americans exclaim that "the Japanese era has arrived."
1On September 22nd, 985, the finance ministers and central bank governors of the five major economic powers, namely, the United States, Japan, Germany, Britain and France, gathered in new york Hotel and formally reached an agreement to jointly intervene in the foreign exchange market and induce the depreciation of the US dollar exchange rate to solve the trade deficit problem of the United States.
History calls it "Plaza Agreement".
Since then, the international exchange rate has fluctuated violently. In just one year, the USD/JPY plummeted from 240 to 120, and institutions that bought US Treasury bonds suffered large losses. In order to avoid risks, a large amount of funds entered the Japanese market.
At the same time, in order to subsidize the export industries that have been hit by the appreciation of the yen, the Japanese government has implemented a loose monetary policy, with the gradual flooding of liquidity and the crazy appreciation of real estate and financial assets.
In just five years, the residential land in Japan has increased by nearly 1.5 times, and the commercial land has increased by nearly four times.
Gradually, Japan's real economy was slowly destroyed, the overall domestic consumption level decreased, and people's money was almost firmly set in the property market.
But the black hole in the property market never seems to be filled. At that time, the Japanese economy was like a house without foundation, which could collapse at any time.
1989 12, "heisei Guiping" Mieno Yasushi became the governor of the Bank of Japan. He believes that the society in which wage earners can't afford to buy houses all their lives is deformed, and it is necessary to tighten finance and curb land prices.
Only a week later, the Bank of Japan began to raise interest rates sharply, carry out vigorous financial consolidation and take the initiative to puncture the economic bubble.
During this period, Japanese society experienced the suppression of land investment and land price tax by the Ministry of Finance, and the land prices of six major cities in Japan began to fall from 199 1. In July of 1992, it fell by 14.7%.
As a result, Japanese real estate opened a 30-year bear market. The Nikkei index fell for 30 months in a row, with an average daily turnover of 89% and a market value loss of 56%.
According to the calculation of Japanese economist Gu Chaoming, after 1989, asset prices plummeted, and Japan lost at least 1500 trillion yen of wealth. The resulting gap made many families and enterprises have to repay at least 15 years of net debt.
This decline in the balance sheet, in turn, eliminated the demand equivalent to 20% of GDP, and completely dragged Japan into the quagmire of depression.
The downward trend of per capita disposable income and the sharp rise of unemployment rate. The pessimistic expectation of the future leads to the tightening of consumption and investment, and even the early repayment of loans. This is similar to the recent phenomenon of early repayment in China.
When the demand is insufficient, the loose monetary policy cannot be transmitted to the entity enterprises, and the profit maximization turns to the debt minimization, which leads to long-term deflation of the economy.
Known as the "lost thirty years"
However, even in these 30 years, the experience of truly outstanding Japanese enterprises actively adjusting to meet challenges and successfully leaping over bulls and bears is worth learning from China enterprises.
2: Crossing the Bull and Bear
Since the beginning of this century, China's GDP has surpassed that of Japan, and people seem to know only about animation, tourism and disputes. The study of its economic structure and development is almost a summary of the lessons of the bubble burst.
At that time, the Bank of Japan's practice of continuously raising interest rates to puncture the housing bubble was wise in some ways. Short pain is better than long pain.
Over the years, although on the surface, Japan's economy has been stagnant, but its internal quality has indeed been greatly improved.
In the previous decade, under the background of GDP growth of about 2%~2.5%, the share of Japanese manufacturing industry in global profits has remained at around 10%, which is an amazing level, reflecting the high technical barriers and strong bargaining power of Japanese enterprises.
According to rough statistics, as of 202 1, the strongest industries in Japan in the past two decades are cheap retail, pharmaceutical manufacturing, internet industry and precision manufacturing.
Look at it separately.
Cheap retail includes clothing, medicine, food and so on. Since the real estate bubble was squeezed out, the goods in the Japanese market no longer pay attention to high prices and gimmicks, and began to take the cheap route. At the same time, those residents who can't afford to buy a house have significantly improved their spending power and a higher sense of happiness.
Like Uniqlo. It can be said that the economic collapse in Japan has made Uniqlo successful, squeezing out the profits in ready-made clothes, and the sweaters that originally sold for more than 10,000 yen have dropped to 1000 yen.
In the past 30 years, Japan's per capita consumption has not changed much. Taking into account factors such as rising commodity prices and inflation, the level is actually declining.
Pharmaceutical manufacturing is absolutely necessary for an aging society, and the development of biotechnology, especially the development of innovative drugs in the last two decades, has overcome many previous intractable diseases and provided considerable gross profit for this industry.
In fact, the overall long-term prosperity of the pharmaceutical industry can be reflected in many aging countries.
At the same time, in the macro environment, from 1990 to 202 1, Japan's social security expenditure in the fiscal budget rose from 13.3 trillion yen to 129.6 trillion yen, accounting for 10.5% of the total fiscal expenditure, which was used for pension and medical care.
In the past 30 years, health care and other industries related to aging have risen in an all-round way. In the process of repairing the whole bubble economy, it is quite a bit of a rebirth.
This experience is worth learning from.
In fact, the Internet industry is an inevitable trend for human beings to enter the digital age, and it is a growing industry in itself.
As for the most noteworthy precision manufacturing industry, that is, what we often say now is "high-end manufacturing".
This is Japan's strong point. There are many invisible champions who make a technology or component the first in the world, which well embodies the so-called "extreme craftsman spirit".
Although in our inherent impression, Japan's position in the global consumer electronics field has been replaced by China, South Korea and other markets, which not only makes people doubt its innovation ability.
But in fact, many real technology giants in Japan have risen in these years of economic recession.
For example, Panasonic has shifted from traditional consumer electronics to automotive electronics and household energy; Sharp turned to robots and health care; Sony turned to high-precision cameras, and so on.
There are roughly four key areas.
Automobile industry.
As soon as possible, the global share has declined in recent years, but looking at the timeline, Japan's automobile industry is still strong.
In 20021year, among the 52 Japanese Fortune 500 companies, there were 6 automobile companies, among which Toyota, Honda and Nissan had operating income of over 654.38+000 billion US dollars, ranking among the top in the world.
What's more worth mentioning is that in addition to automobile manufacturing, there are also automobile-related industries. For example, automobile glass, automobile metal materials, automobile electronics and other related industries, together, account for more than 50% in the industrial field. The automobile and related industries provide at least 10% jobs for the Japanese working population. Needless to say, economic and social values are very important to Japan.
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