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Discuss the changes brought about by the 20% appreciation of the RMB on China

1. The country’s foreign exchange reserves will suffer corresponding losses according to the extent of appreciation.

2. The country’s export products will be affected to a certain extent due to the appreciation of the RMB. That is, due to the appreciation of the RMB, the cost of exports will increase relative to foreign importers, and the quantity of exports will decrease. However, because the labor cost of Chinese goods is very low, a 20-30% appreciation of the RMB will not greatly affect the competitiveness of Chinese goods. It can be said that the export volume reduced due to appreciation (not necessarily) will be filled by the amount of foreign exchange recovered due to appreciation, and my country's foreign trade situation will not change significantly.

3. It will affect my country’s labor export to a certain extent and affect foreign investment to a small extent (the same investment will increase investment costs due to the appreciation of the RMB).

4. Due to the appreciation of the RMB, the purchasing power of the RMB is enhanced, which will lead to an increase in imports and reduce my country's trade deficit. (This is exactly what we need)

5. The rise in bank bad debts has caused unemployment, FDI (foreign direct investment) has declined, deflation has occurred in rural areas, the external role of the renminbi has weakened, and China's commitments to the WTO have been difficult to fulfill, which has brought about financial instability in Southeast Asia and the Asian economy. of slowing down.

Benefits: 1. Enhance my country’s purchasing power. When we buy foreign goods, others sell them to us at a 20% or 20% discount.

2. For the same reason, it will be cheaper and more convenient for our country to invest in foreign countries or purchase foreign assets than before.

3. An appreciation of the RMB will cause people in the economic circle to believe that the RMB will appreciate again, causing a large amount of capital to flow into China, which is enough to offset the reduction in investment due to increased investment costs, and will also greatly beyond.

4. Since the advantage of low labor costs is offset by the appreciation of the RMB, the appreciation of the RMB can also promote the transformation of China's industrial structure from labor-intensive to high value-added.

5. The appreciation of the RMB can lay the foundation for the RMB to go global. The appreciated RMB will bring confidence to the people of the world. After that, it will be a matter of course for the RMB to become an international currency.

6. Social welfare will be directly improved. Because the purchasing power of RMB increases, prices in all aspects will decrease accordingly.

After seeing clearly the advantages and disadvantages, we can basically have a map of what to do. Let’s analyze two issues that financial experts are worried about.

First. Fear of economic stagnation after the appreciation of the yen like ****. In fact, this is a bit unfounded. The national conditions of Japan are very different from those of my country. They rely on exports to make a living. Furthermore, their bank bad debts are quite different from those in our country. Most of our country's bank bad debts are left over from transfer loans in the planned economy, while ****'s original bad debts are hidden. It occurs when the economy is in recession, making it even worse. Our country's economy is not very dependent on foreign countries, labor costs are low, and even appreciated products are still very competitive. The government is well aware of the amount of bad debts, so that it will not lead to runs or bank failure. Therefore, using the **** analogy is the result of studying hard.

Second. The hot money problem. Experts are worried that hot money will make profits after the RMB appreciates, which will have an impact on our country's economy. In fact, even if there is hot money speculation, as experts say, it will not be a big threat to our country's economy. Because hot money is a non-trade amount as calculated by statistics, it is only more than 100 billion U.S. dollars, which is only more than 1 trillion yuan when converted into RMB. The country can absorb it no matter what. Moreover, the entry of hot money must go through the State Administration of Foreign Exchange. If it is a trade transaction, it can only be returned under the trade item; if it is an investment, it can only be withdrawn after the expiration of the operating period; hot money that enters through other abnormal channels cannot be withdrawn in our current foreign exchange system. It is impossible to make a profit and leave the market under the management system. Therefore, the hot money problem is not a big problem for our country.

In addition, some hot money entered China because they were worried about the economic crisis in the United States and to reduce risks