The rise in interest rates has led to an increase in repayment pressure. Many users with bad credit feel that repayment pressure is high and there is the possibility of default, which has an impact on the recovery of bank loans.
The credit system is divided into two levels, one is preferential credit and the other is secondary credit. Preferential credit, like the mortgage credit of mainland banks in China, requires the lender to provide more detailed information, and the bank's audit is also very strict, and there is no credit stain allowed. The interest rate is calculated according to the interest rate announced by the government.
Subprime credit means that the lender's credit review is wider than the preferential level, which is more suitable for people with low income and credit stains, and the interest rate will be higher than the preferential level.
Borrowers in the sub-prime credit market can use the opportunity of rising house prices to fill their credit, but when the house prices are flat, there is no intermediate price difference, so it is difficult for lenders to repay on time. There was a credit crisis.
So subprime mortgage is a kind of credit. The subprime mortgage crisis is an accurate statement. The credit crisis is a general term. Because preferential credit has strong repayment ability. So most of the credit crisis is actually a subprime crisis.
2. The impact of subprime mortgage crisis on China.
The losses of domestic financial institutions are limited. Some domestic financial institutions have purchased some financial products involving subprime loans. Because China's domestic regulatory authorities still strictly control financial institutions to engage in overseas credit derivatives transactions, the investment scale of these banks is not large. Although there is no clear loss data at present, the management of these banks generally said that due to the small proportion of subprime loans involved, the losses caused have little impact on the overall operation of the company, and a small amount of losses can also be found in banks.
Within the allowable range. With the increasingly strong linkage between domestic and foreign financial markets, the continuous turmoil in developed countries' financial markets is bound to have a negative transmission effect on China's domestic financial markets. On the one hand, it will directly aggravate the turmoil in the domestic financial market; On the other hand, the continuous turmoil in the external market will affect the long-term expectations of economic entities on the China market from the psychological level.
Export growth may slow down. In the "Troika" that drives China's economic growth, exports occupy a very important position. From the perspective of economic aggregate, the proportion of exports to GDP is rising, exceeding 1/3 in 2006 and still increasing by 25.7% in 2007, although the growth rate has slowed down. In terms of employment, there are more than 80 million employees in foreign trade enterprises, including nearly 40 million in processing trade. Since 200 1, the proportion of China's exports to the United States has remained above 2 1%, and the export growth rate is also very fast. As foreign trade plays a very important role in China's current economic growth, and the United States is one of the largest sources of trade surplus in China, the slowdown of the American economy and the global credit crunch will tighten China's overall external environment.
Monetary policy faces a dilemma, and the complexity of the global economy poses a severe challenge to China's monetary policy. On the one hand, major economies such as the United States and Europe began to experience credit contraction and corporate profits decline, and economic growth was weak.
The possibility of economic slowdown or even recession has increased. On the other hand, global real estate, stocks and other price shocks have intensified, and the prices of commodities such as grain, gold and oil in the international market denominated in US dollars have continued to rise, and global inflationary pressures have increased. Therefore, China has to face the pressure of interest rate cuts in the United States and domestic inflation, which makes the monetary policy face a dilemma.
Since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the imbalance of international payments may aggravate the potential risks and uncertainties of global economic operation. With China's increasing openness to the outside world, the turmoil in overseas markets may affect the scale and speed of cross-border capital flows, making it more difficult to adjust funds. In the event of a global financial crisis, it may increase the risk of fluctuations in China's balance of payments. Expectations of RMB appreciation may increase. In the case of weak economic growth in the United States, loose monetary policy and weak dollar exchange rate policy may be adopted to deal with the negative impact of the subprime mortgage crisis, which may aggravate the expectation of RMB appreciation. The demand for RMB exchange rate system reform in non-US dollar currency areas may increase, and the asymmetric exchange rate structure system will bring new pressure to RMB appreciation.
The risk of overseas investment has increased. From the perspective of enterprises' "going out", the American subprime mortgage crisis made China enterprises "go out".
The impact can be divided into favorable and unfavorable aspects. Beneficially, the subprime mortgage crisis helps China financial institutions to bypass the market access threshold and merger barriers, expand their financial investment in the United States at a relatively reasonable cost, speed up the internationalization process through acquisition, equity participation and capital injection, and provide efficient and convenient financial support for "going global" enterprises while striving to improve their own development level. Unfortunately, the current turmoil in the international financial market and monetary tightening will undoubtedly increase the financing risk and investment risk of China enterprises going global. Moreover, with the deepening of the subprime mortgage crisis, investors' risk aversion and leaving mood will lead to the revaluation of higher-grade mortgage-backed securities, thus endangering the safety and profitability of overseas investment by domestic financial institutions.
3. Lessons from the subprime mortgage crisis to China.
Financial institutions should always put risk control in the first place,
Under the background of sustained and rapid economic growth and abundant liquidity, investors are optimistic about the economic development prospects and often underestimate the risks. However, economic development is cyclical, and the assets purchased by economic subjects based on blind optimism in the rising stage of the economic cycle are not necessarily high-quality assets. Although it is certain that the situation in China is different from that in the United States, it is necessary for China's financial institutions, including commercial banks, to learn from the losses suffered by state-owned commercial banks in the United States and Europe in this crisis, keep a clear head, fully estimate the risks from the perspective of preventing economic cycle fluctuations and external shocks, and realize their own steady operation and sustainable development.
Strengthen innovation and improve supervision,
In the American subprime mortgage crisis, on the one hand, financial innovation dispersed the risk of American real estate financing market through extensive securitization, on the other hand, it also intensified the infection and influence of financial risks, causing incalculable losses. Therefore, China should constantly strengthen financial innovation and improve the supervision of related products.
Steadily promote capital account convertibility
Objectively speaking, in the subprime mortgage crisis, the established policy of capital account convertibility was steadily promoted, which made great contributions to isolating overseas financial risks. As an emerging market economy, moderate foreign exchange management is an important "firewall" to resist the impact of international hot money in the case of many defects in its own economic and financial structure. Especially with the deepening of China's financial opening up, actively and steadily promoting capital account convertibility can effectively prevent the relatively fragile financial system from being completely exposed to the international economic environment and reduce various external uncertainties. In view of this, China's economic development must fully consider the impact of global economic changes, take precautions, and resolve financial foreign exchange market risks.
4. What does this economic crisis inspire the contemporary youth in China?
In the process of growing up, we should constantly improve ourselves and immediately find our own shortcomings.
Don't overdraw too much when spending, do what you can.
When you encounter unexpected things, you should be calm, take them seriously and try to solve them.