Today, China's important position in the global economy comes not only from the reform and opening up in the past 40 years, but also from the exploration in the 30 years before the reform and opening up.
The complete industrial system established in the first 30 years laid the starting point for the adjustment of industrial structure and the efficiency of resource redistribution during the reform and opening up period. However, during this period, China's economy failed to catch up with the developed economies, and the gap with the world was widening. Since 1990s, emerging economies and many countries transformed from planned economies have implemented the open policy and deeply participated in the new round of economic globalization. China is an active participant and beneficiary of this round of economic globalization, and has achieved miraculous economic catch-up with developed countries in 40 years.
China does not seek world economic hegemony, nor does it export its own development model. However, as the world's second largest economy, the largest industrial country, the largest commodity trading country and the largest foreign exchange reserve country, China has the obligation to reflect its own and developing countries, especially emerging economies' demands for international economic and trade rules and lead the global governance reform.
Due to the following outstanding features, China and its development are of great significance to the world. First of all, China is the most populous country in the world, and the achievements made by the people of China, who account for15 of mankind, are of great significance to the world and incomparable to other countries. Secondly, from the academic pursuit of exploring the mystery of the rise and fall of the country, China is the only case of a big country that has experienced economic development from prosperity to decline to prosperity, and has nearly completely experienced every necessary stage of economic development. David hume, the pioneer of British classical economics, predicted in 1742 that when art and science reach the highest level in a country, they will inevitably decline, and then rarely or never revive in the same country. Today, China's miracles in various fields have been constantly breaking this "Hume's prophecy".
The engine and stabilizer of the world economy
In the course of economic development in the past 70 years, China has experienced ups and downs, with lessons of failure and more successful experiences. Since 1978 reform and opening up, China has steadily become the only country in the world with a large enough economic scale and fast enough growth rate, which has not only changed its own appearance, but also changed the world economic structure. It can be said that China, as the engine and stabilizer of the world economy, has contributed to unprecedented changes in the world.
According to the data of the World Bank, the GDP of China 1978 ranks 14 in the world, which is only equivalent to 1. 1% of the world economy and 4.6% of the US economy. By 20 17, China's GDP will reach 10.2 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 12.7% of the world economy and 58.7% of the US economy. The increase of China's economic aggregate and the longest sustained high-speed growth in the world have made great incremental contributions to the world economic growth. After 1990, the incremental contribution of China's economy to the world economy exceeded 10%, and it has remained at around 30% since the international financial crisis in 2008. In the years when the world economy has changed abnormally since the beginning of this century, it is precisely because of the stabilizing effect of China's economy that the global volatility has obviously decreased.
With the economic catch-up of emerging economies with China as the main body and even more developing countries, the global economic convergence, which was only established in theory in the past, has finally become the reality of world economic development. During the period from 1978 to 20 17, the GDP of low-income and middle-income countries in the world increased from 2 1.3% to 35.3%. At constant prices, the GDP of all low-income and middle-income countries has increased fourfold, and China's contribution is as high as 43.6%.
Due to the global economic convergence, the scale of the global absolute poverty population and the incidence of poverty have dropped unprecedentedly. During the period from 198 1 to 20 15, the global population living in absolute poverty decreased by165438+400 million according to World Bank standards, with a reduction rate of over 60%. China's contribution to world poverty reduction is 76.2%.
Extracting General Laws from China's Characteristics
China did not accept any transcendental dogma from the beginning of the reform, and did not copy any existing models, roads or so-called * * * knowledge. Instead, it obeys the fundamental purpose of developing productive forces, improving comprehensive national strength and improving people's livelihood, adheres to the gradual reform method and upholds the concept of reform, development and * * *.
The first step is to activate the incentive mechanism of "turning stone into gold". Under the condition of giving priority to the development of heavy industry, in order to reduce the price of agricultural products, the system of unified purchase and marketing of agricultural products was implemented with the scissors difference between industrial and agricultural products as the means of industrialization accumulation. In order to ensure that the factors of agricultural production will not be lost, the people's commune system and household registration system also came into being. This system distorts the allocation of resources, resulting in low agricultural production efficiency and insufficient labor incentives.
After the Third Plenary Session of the Eleventh Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the rapid popularization of the household contract responsibility system is a change to meet the needs of the system. The degree of labor effort is directly linked to output and income. The increase in the purchase price of agricultural products has activated the incentive mechanism, significantly increased the output of agricultural products in a short period of time, greatly reduced the incidence of rural poverty, and comprehensively increased the supply of agricultural products.
The second step is to expand the structural adjustment process of resource reallocation. With the gradual elimination of a series of institutional obstacles that hinder the flow of labor force, the individual motivation of workers to increase their income is linked to the efficiency driving force of resource reallocation, which promotes the large-scale transfer of labor force and promotes the adjustment and optimization of industrial structure on a macro level.
During the reform period, China's overall labor productivity increased by about 17 times, in which the labor force was redistributed among the primary, secondary and tertiary industries, or the labor force was transferred from agriculture to non-agricultural industries, contributing about 44.9%.
The third step is to participate in the global value chain division of labor in all directions. China's economic reform and opening up go hand in hand. The establishment of 1979 special economic zone has experienced the process from the opening of coastal cities and coastal provinces to full opening. 1986 applied for restoring the status of contracting state of GATT, and 200 1 joined the World Trade Organization.
The expansion of trade in coastal areas, the introduction of foreign capital and the development of export-oriented economy have provided a large number of employment opportunities for the transfer of labor force, guided the industrial structure to develop in a direction consistent with the comparative advantages of resources, and won the international competitiveness for manufacturing products. Due to the reform and opening up, China's economy has achieved an average annual growth of 9.5% in the past 40 years.
Looking forward to China's new contribution to the world economy.
First, continue and enhance the kinetic energy of economic growth from the time dimension. As China's economy overtook lewis turning point, the demographic dividend disappeared, and the stage of dual economic development gradually ended. From the perspective of growth momentum, the source of supporting rapid economic growth, such as large-scale labor transfer, has gradually disappeared, and economic growth increasingly needs to improve total factor productivity through the survival of the fittest, the promotion of human capital and technological innovation under the market mechanism.
The significance of the proposition of "middle income trap" lies in revealing that the transformation of economic growth kinetic energy is not natural, but should create conditions to tap new sources of growth according to the special challenges faced by countries. For China, this requires a comprehensive deepening of economic restructuring. Considering the reform effect, China's potential growth rate will still be significantly higher than the world average and the growth level of high-income countries such as the United States. This means that China will soon become the first largest economy to fully experience various forms of economic development and complete the transformation from low income to middle income and high income.
Secondly, the logic of reform, opening up, development and enjoyment is extended from the spatial dimension. With China's economy spanning lewis turning point, the labor-intensive manufacturing industry in coastal areas first lost its comparative advantage. The central and western regions just have the conditions to undertake industrial transfer, forming a "domestic version of the strict array model." At the same time, China has planned the regional development layout such as the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the integration of the Yangtze River Delta, aiming at maintaining the manufacturing advantage by gathering economies of scale. With the labor-intensive industries finally losing their comparative advantages in China, it is necessary to form a new "international version of the battle array model", that is, some manufacturing industries are transferred to neighboring countries and Africa with abundant labor. The construction of "One Belt, One Road" starts with infrastructure construction, and then drives industrial transfer, which not only conforms to the general development track of "strict pattern", but also proves to be effective for China's own gradient development practice.
Third, deepen reform and open wider to the outside world with the concept of enjoying development. Countries seek economic development not for development, but for improving people's well-being. The core of China's great achievements in the past 40 years of reform and opening up lies in * * * enjoyment.
As China's economy enters a new stage of development, the improvement of income distribution by the market mechanism itself will be weakened. Under the situation that the growth model is changing from input to innovation, it is required to increase the redistribution of the government and give play to the function of social policy; Participate in the division of global value chain at a higher stage of development, and the competitive effect with developed countries is greater than the complementary effect; The deeper the reform and opening up, the smaller the space for "Pareto improvement" and the more obstacles those with vested interests may encounter. All these need to adhere to the people-centered development thought and better embody the development concept of * * * in the whole process of further reform, opening up and development.