China does not issue RMB according to the current national conditions. China printed China banknotes with foreign exchange reserves (mainly US dollars) as the guarantee. For a reserve of $3 trillion, it is necessary to print 20 trillion RMB banknotes (3 trillion US dollars can be exchanged for 20 trillion RMB).

M0 stands for bank note (physical currency) M 1 stands for bank note+demand deposit M2 stands for bank note+demand deposit+time deposit M3 (physical currency+bookkeeping currency symbol) stands for bank note+demand deposit+time deposit+US dollar reserve (China's foreign exchange reserve refers to US dollars in plain English). China's GDP and gross national product are about 5.8 trillion US dollars (about 38 trillion RMB). Less than 30% of the total amount of broad money M3 (it is reported that the stock of broad money in Chinese mainland is about 50 trillion RMB, and the amount of money in circulation is far greater than the actual amount of money needed), so there are too many currencies (currencies) circulating in the China market, which exceeds the actual amount of money needed by the market by more than one third, which will inevitably lead to internal inflation.

Therefore, the government of China announced that China is suffering from imported inflation due to the excess of US dollars. China has now liberalized foreign exchange control (but not capital control), and there is no requirement to bind US dollars to forcibly convert foreign exchange into RMB, but US dollars can't be spent in Chinese mainland at all (people can spend US dollars when shopping, on the grounds that China UnionPay dual-currency card can brush domestic dual-currency settlement at will, and US Visa card can brush domestic dollar settlement; However, you can only spend RMB on formal occasions. If you want to buy things in dollars, you can only change them into RMB. Therefore, there are only three ways for the China government to solve the rising cost inflation or imported dollar inflation. The best thing is the depreciation of RMB against the US dollar (restraining the expectation of RMB appreciation, lowering prices and stimulating the outflow of hot money from the US dollar, but it is not conducive to the internationalization of RMB). The most important thing is the appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar (which leads to the expectation of RMB appreciation, rising prices, stimulating the input of hot money in the US dollar, but it is beneficial to the internationalization of the RMB), and the worst thing is the circulation of the US dollar in China (the RMB will never overspend, but the price in China will never change, but it may cause the people in China to only use the US dollar because it has the best world circulation and the highest recognition rate in the world, and they are reluctant to use the RMB, just like waste paper, which cannot be circulated abroad).

Everything has two sides. On the surface, all the phenomena you said are right.

In fact, you were only half right when you went to the bank to change foreign currency bills. You can use your personal ID card to fill out a form (foreign banknotes with a personal limit of less than 50,000 US dollars or equivalent), and then you can change China's money into foreign banknotes according to the foreign exchange rate at that time (for example, into the world's three largest banknotes: the first is the dollar banknotes with the trinity of international reserve, commodity settlement and oil/gold pricing; Second, euro banknotes with international reserves, European settlement and pricing; Third, emerging international hedging and settlement of some commodities. However, the changes in foreign exchange are greatly influenced by the changes in the international market, such as the Libyan war (regional turmoil caused a large number of investors to hedge their demand, buying safe-haven currencies such as Japanese yen and Swiss franc, which made the currency higher) and the sovereign debt crisis in the euro zone (the survival and credit of the euro caused risk demand, so if it is good, buy up the European currency; The spread will make the European currency fall), the price increase of international commodities such as oil (the depreciation of the commodity-denominated currency US dollar, the appreciation of the commodity currencies Australian dollar, Canadian dollar and New Zealand dollar), etc. , will be included in global foreign exchange transactions, and the stock price will rise; A lot of selling, the stock price fell.

Foreign exchange speculation can be done in a bank with a foreign exchange card and deposited in foreign currency cash or cash. It can be operated on the client side of the bank website and the bank counter, such as ICBC, Agricultural Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of China and Bank of Communications. Everbright, Minsheng and other big banks with the brand of "foreign currency exchange").

Half of them are wrong. It should be that RMB banknotes will appreciate day by day in the future, and the income will increase slowly. There is not much inflation in China, but the price has only increased by half (non-durable goods such as food and energy products have risen sharply or inflation, and the slow depreciation of the US dollar has led to the rise of international commodity prices, which has led to the rise of China), and the other half has fallen (durable goods such as cars, mobile phones and electronic products have been sold because of overproduction, so the prices have been greatly reduced worldwide), but on average, prices have basically returned.

Now the capitalist world is in the post-economic crisis era, and the United States, Europe and other places are about to pass the economic crisis that began in 2007. At present, only China's RMB is strong (for internationalization, the appreciation target is the market in the 1980s), the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc are in the middle (rising for ten consecutive years), and the US dollar is weak (depreciating for two consecutive years).

Finally, you are in the right direction. Your plan is to buy foreign currency, and speculation (buying and selling foreign currency, earning the difference is speculation) is an investment and a kind of financial management. Paying interest on savings deposits in banks is also an investment and a kind of financial management; The principle of financial management is moderation, that is, choose sound financial products (divide the money into three parts, 1 have cash on hand, 2 spend money on foreign currency speculation/stocks or start your own business, and 3 have deposits in banks). I personally do this. I am also a worker, my hobby is speculating in foreign exchange, and my monthly income fluctuates between 200 dollars and 200 euros. So I support you.

Finally, to sum up and answer your question, the China municipal government actually hopes to choose the third method to solve the current problem. However, the domestic conditions are not yet mature, and you have chosen the second method for the time being, which shows that your consideration is reasonable. You can change US dollars for two reasons.

First, after all, for decades, there is only one kind of hard currency in the world that has the trinity of international reserve/trade settlement/commodity pricing-US dollar bills (you can buy bulk commodities everywhere with US dollars, because only US dollars have the pricing power of bulk commodities, and it is a waste of money to take RMB out of the country, because RMB never has the pricing power).

Second, according to the causal cycle, there is no rising renminbi, and of course there is no falling dollar.

3. Unless RMB is internationalized, RMB has pricing power. It's possible, but I'm optimistic that after 20 years, it will be what you said for a long time (US$ 65,438+0979,65,438+0 at the beginning of the reform and opening up, US$ 65,438+0 against 0.2 yuan RMB in 2005, US$ 65,438+0 against 8.7 yuan RMB due to the exchange rate reform in China, and US$ 65,438+0 against 2005, of course.