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Why did the RMB exchange rate fall? What does RRR cut mean for RMB exchange rate?
From: Network Date: April 30, 2022
Interest rate cuts and RRR cuts indicate that China's domestic economy is under great downward pressure, which will lead to a large amount of capital outflows. At the same time, interest rate cuts will also lead to international capital outflows chasing high interest rates. The result of this capital outflow is that the RMB exchange rate has fallen.
Devaluate. On the second trading day after the RRR cut was announced, the RMB exchange rate fell. However, after the announcement of RRR interest rate cut at the beginning of June 5438+ 10 this year, the RMB has not depreciated, but has appreciated-a very important reason is that the monetary policy differentiation between China and the United States tends to converge, and the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates has weakened. "Exchange rate is a relative concept. It depends not only on what happens to you, but also on what happens internationally. " Guan Tao said, "Now the Fed has pressed the pause button for the normalization of monetary policy, which has opened a certain space for China's monetary policy. But this does not mean that the Bank of China must take measures to reduce RRR and cut interest rates. China's monetary policy still considers the domestic economic situation, depending on economic growth, inflation and employment. " Regarding the exchange rate trend, Guan Tao said that since 20 19, the pressure of RMB depreciation has obviously subsided. The data shows that as of March 15, the US dollar index appreciated by 0.2%, while the central parity of RMB exchange rate rose by 2.2% in the same period. Judging from the deviation between the closing price and the middle price, the pressure of RMB depreciation subsided but did not turn into an appreciation trend. "Theoretically, the stabilization of China's economy, the consolidation of the US dollar and the improvement of Sino-US trade negotiations have all supported the RMB exchange rate. But in fact, you put it under the framework of the pricing formula of the central parity of the RMB exchange rate, and it is difficult for you to find (those factors). Since the beginning of this year, the RMB exchange rate has stabilized, which is often the result of enabling countercyclical adjustment. " Guan Tao said. As for the exchange rate trend this year, Guan Tao believes that it will be affected by many factors: Sino-US economic and trade relations are facing a turning point, but there are also great uncertainties; China economy continues to face downward pressure; China-US monetary policy is uncertain; And the trend of the dollar has great uncertainty. "The RMB exchange rate of 20 19 will remain volatile. Two-way fluctuation of exchange rate and market expectation differentiation contribute to the independent balance of international payments. In the case of uncertain exchange rate, I suggest not to bet on policy and direction. As a market entity, we should establish an understanding of financial neutrality and risk neutrality, and manage and control currency exposure and risks. " Guan Tao concluded.
The central bank's sudden announcement of RRR interest rate cuts will inevitably release a lot of liquidity, and monetary easing will inevitably exert depreciation pressure on the exchange rate. Does this mean that the RMB will depreciate further? I don't think the probability is high. The economic data such as PMI released this year reflect that the downward trend of domestic macro-economy is still grim and the risk of deflation is rising. In addition, in June, 5438+February, foreign exchange holdings showed a sharp negative growth. Recently, the funds in the real economy are tightening, and a batch of new shares will be issued next week. At this time, the RRR cut of the central bank should be mainly to avoid excess liquidity before the Spring Festival, hedge the impact of the decline in foreign exchange holdings, and stimulate the current weak macro-economy, rather than opening up space for RMB depreciation. Although RMB depreciation is conducive to exports, in the domestic economic downturn, economic growth is still mainly driven by investment, and there are signs of capital outflow, a new round of RMB depreciation trend has started, and the demand for large-scale foreign exchange purchase may be unbearable for the central bank. Therefore, what the central bank is currently considering may be how to keep the RMB exchange rate relatively stable. As for the specific impact of the RRR cut on the RMB exchange rate, it should be mainly the impact of market expectations, and it may not necessarily turn into a sharp depreciation of the spot exchange rate. Recently, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar has approached the daily limit for several days, and the expectation of depreciation is rising. However, on the second trading day after the central bank announced the RRR cut on Wednesday, the RMB exchange rate did not show an extreme depreciation trend in the case of the depreciation of the central parity. On Thursday, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar gapped higher by nearly 100 basis points, hitting 6.2560, which was less than 50 basis points away from the price limit. However, it quickly fell back with the decline of the US dollar index, and there was no weak situation throughout the day. Recently, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar has been below 6. 14, which limits the domestic spot exchange rate of RMB to below 6.2628. Therefore, as long as the subsequent median price is always below 6. 14, it is impossible to break through the previous high of the spot exchange rate of 6.2676. In the context of the devaluation of non-American currencies and the intensification of capital outflows, in order to avoid the formation of unilateral devaluation expectations and prevent the intensification of capital outflows, the author believes that the middle price is likely to stabilize at the current level, and the probability of a sharp depreciation of the spot exchange rate of RMB becomes very small. The RMB forward exchange rate is greatly affected by the RRR cut. Since the RRR cut will effectively alleviate the shortage of domestic funds, if the domestic interbank market interest rate drops accordingly, the discount rate of RMB forward exchange rate will also drop. In short, the impact of RRR interest rate cut on the capital market will be far greater than that on the foreign exchange market; The impact on the forward exchange rate of RMB will be greater than the spot exchange rate; The impact on market sentiment will be greater than the actual trend of the market.
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Why does the RMB exchange rate fall after interest rate cuts and RRR cuts? The interest rate cut and RRR reduction mean that the downward pressure on the domestic economy is still great, and China's economic expectation is not optimistic, which will lead to a large amount of capital outflow and investment in foreign markets, and at the same time reduce the attractiveness of RMB to international capital, thus leading to the decline of RMB exchange rate.
Why, after the interest rate cut and RRR, some people say that the RMB will depreciate-:the spread with the US dollar will narrow and the exchange rate will be under pressure.
What is the impact of the central bank's interest rate cut and RRR's interest rate cut on the RMB exchange rate? What is the impact of the central bank's interest rate cut and RRR's interest rate cut on the RMB exchange rate? All answers 2017-08-2720: 31:09 insiders said that the signal of this easing policy is that the central bank will tolerate a small depreciation of the RMB under the new middle price mechanism while maintaining the relative stability of the RMB. ....
Why does the central bank's interest rate cut lead to a decline in the exchange rate? -:Interest rate cuts generally occur in a period when a country's economy is relatively weak, which is often part of the economic stimulus policy. A rate cut means a decline in the country's currency yield. On the one hand, it can reduce the financing cost of enterprises, improve the enthusiasm of enterprises to borrow, thereby enhancing economic leverage and helping the economy get rid of weakness; On the other hand, after the interest rate cut, its currency will be less attractive to investors, and the corresponding exchange rate will fall. A falling exchange rate can help the government increase exports and improve trade data, thus promoting economic growth. Therefore, reducing interest rates is a useful means to promote economic growth. After interest rate cuts, the economy will gradually recover, and stimulus policies such as interest rate cuts will gradually withdraw. When the economy re-enters the expansion cycle, it will raise interest rates and appreciate the currency, thus curbing the overheating of the economy.
Why will the dollar cut interest rates help the RMB exchange rate rise? -: 1. Increased the market circulation of USD, lowered the price of USD, and made the RMB exchange rate higher against USD. 2. Increased currency liquidity, increased investment in RMB foreign exchange market in probability, thus pushing up the trend (this influence is relatively small).
The real purpose of the central bank's interest rate cuts and RRR cuts is why the central bank lowered the benchmark interest rate-:Experts said that the current global monetary easing tide has increased the downward pressure on China's economy. The RRR cut beyond market expectations is conducive to the growth of credit funds and the improvement of the real economy. At the same time, the stock market and the real estate market ... are believed. BEIJING, Beijing, February 5 (Reporter Li) After more than two years, China implemented comprehensive health measures again today. ...
The central bank announced a reduction in interest rates and RRR. Why did the central bank lower RRR and cut interest rates? What's the impact? -:The central bank's RRR and interest rate cuts are both loose monetary policies, which will stimulate housing prices as a whole. First, reducing RRR can increase the loanable funds of financial institutions, and loanable funds will go through many deposits and loans from commercial banks to the market, resulting in the currency in circulation increasing several times by the reserve, which is the function of currency multiplier. ....
An analysis of the reasons for the central bank's RRR cut: Why does the central bank lower the RRR and cut interest rates-:Lowering interest rates can attract loans to expand investment, and lowering RRR can increase currency circulation, all for invigorating the economy and benefiting the stock market and real estate.
What is the relationship between RMB depreciation and central bank's interest rate cut and RRR's interest rate cut? Please explain the internal logic of the specific reasons. Thank you. The relationship between RMB depreciation and central bank policy is direct. The interest rate cut shows that China will maintain a stable and loose monetary policy. The first thing to cut interest rates is to promote growth, which is the fundamental purpose. It can be seen from the economic data of various countries that there is a great downward pressure on China's economy at present, and from the current situation, inflation has stopped. ...
Why should the central bank lower RRR and cut interest rates? The advantages outweigh the disadvantages. Cutting interest rates will directly save the economy and indirectly protect the stock market. The winning interest rate of 80 billion yuan 1 year central bank bill issued by the central bank on the 7th was lower than expected. Market speculation, the central bank may be interested in guiding money market interest rates down. Some investors believe that this is a signal that the central bank has relaxed its tightening control, and the possibility of cutting interest rates is gradually increasing. ...
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