I have just dabbled in this problem. I mentioned in the book "The Real Pain of China under the Current Price Rising" that at the end of 65438+February in 2020, China's foreign exchange holdings decreased by10091600 million yuan compared with the end of last year, which has been declining for the sixth consecutive year; China's foreign exchange reserves are reported to be US$ 3,265,438+US$ 0,652.2 billion, which has been fluctuating in the range of US$ 3.65438 +0-3.3 trillion in recent years.
That is to say, China's deficit in capital and financial accounts is also expanding, although foreign trade exports increased substantially last year and the current account has a large surplus. The central bank is determined to maintain the basic balance of foreign exchange reserves for a long time, and the pattern of declining foreign exchange holdings has not changed. Therefore, as long as foreign trade exports increase substantially and there is a large amount of foreign exchange inflow in the current account, China will expand its foreign exchange expenditure in the capital and financial fields, maintain the dynamic balance of foreign exchange reserves, and gradually reduce its foreign exchange holdings.
This is because with the strengthening of China's economic strength, the total economic output has exceeded 100 trillion RMB, which is very huge. If we still maintain huge foreign exchange reserves, it will not only be easily affected by the passive issuance of RMB, but also the independent monetary policy will be interfered by foreign countries. In addition, excessive foreign exchange reserves can easily lead to international trade disputes and disputes.
As for what some people say about domestic capital fleeing, it is impossible. China is a country with foreign exchange control, so it is impossible for capital to flow out at will. In 20 16, the United States withdrew from Qe, and some domestic people and some enterprises transferred capital through foreign debt and foreign investment, which was strongly hit and restrained by the government.
China is an independent country with its own financial sovereignty and independent monetary and foreign exchange policies. This is different from many capitalist countries, and we must distinguish it.
I have always had this question, and I have been thinking about it. Maybe some investors sold their houses and fled from China such as Li Ka-shing, or some China people sold their houses and relocated their assets, or foreign investors sold their factories and invested in Southeast Asia. Personal thoughts, I don't know if I understand them correctly. This is not a good phenomenon in any case.