What is the impact of MLF's interest rate cut?
1LPR is expected to be lowered, and the bank loan interest rate is expected to be further reduced. The MLF interest rate may further reduce the financing cost of the real economy, and the LPR may be lowered in the next step, which will lead to the overall reduction of the bank loan interest rate.
2. The bond market interest rate may decline in the short term, but it will not form a downward trend; In the long run, the upward pressure on interest rates is greater. The reduction of MLF interest rate directly injects liquidity into the interbank market, and the short-term interest rate cut is in line with market expectations.
From the fourth quarter of 320 19 to the first quarter of 2020, the GDP growth rate may go up. If reducing MLF interest rate is regarded as a monetary policy of steady growth, then issuing special bonds in 2020 in advance is a fiscal policy of steady growth.
Although the reduction of MLF interest rate is good for the market, it will have the above impact and. However, with the transmission of monetary policy from the inter-bank market to the credit market, the decline of loan interest rate may lead to the increase of loan scale, the decrease of total funds in the inter-bank market, and then the pressure of raising interest rates.