Macro news:
1. On Thursday, the central bank made a 7-day reverse repurchase of 80 billion yuan, and the winning bid rate was 2.25%, which was the same as the previous period. On the same day, 30 billion reverse repurchase expired, achieving a net investment of 50 billion, the ninth consecutive day.
2. The fourth article in a series of comments on the economic situation published by Xinhua News Agency said that the focus of China's economic development needs to shift from speed to structure, and it is necessary to focus on supply-side structural reform to fight the tough battle of transformation and upgrading, further increase innovation support and simplify administration and decentralization.
Institutional point of view:
1.CICC: RMB's entry into SDR currency basket will take effect on June 1. In order to ensure the smooth transition of SDR basket, China will not change its exchange rate policy until at least June 1. After entering the basket, the RMB exchange rate will not be greatly adjusted.
2. Han, a senior researcher at China Construction Bank: With the decline of the US dollar in the international market, the motivation of domestic institutional investors represented by proprietary trading of commercial banks to buy more US dollars will decrease, while the motivation to buy more RMB will increase, which will also help the RMB rebound. In addition, with the RMB leaving the integer mark of 6.70 after July 19, the expectations of domestic and foreign investors that 6.70 may be the short-term bottom line of the regulatory authorities have been significantly enhanced, further reducing the enthusiasm of dollar bulls.
3. Guotai Junan Securities: Under the background that the external dollar has not weakened and the internal benefits have not appeared, it tends to think that the support of the RMB exchange rate comes from the "bottom line thinking" of the 6.70 mark, that is, the central bank may gently guide the onshore exchange rate not to fall below the 6.70 mark quickly, or market participants expect the central bank to take action at this mark, thus generating spontaneous "fear" psychology. In any case, the "suspected card" of the central bank has not triggered a larger influx of speculative forces, which at least proves that the current market depreciation expectation has been greatly improved compared with the beginning of the year.
4. Shenwan Hongyuan Securities: In the first half of the year, the pressure of cross-border capital outflow gradually eased, market sentiment tended to be stable and rational, and the expectation of RMB exchange rate depreciation weakened. Even though some uncertain factors, such as US dollar interest rate hike, Britain's withdrawal from the EU and international financial market fluctuations, may affect the short-term trend of China's cross-border capital flows, China's sound economic fundamentals and strong risk prevention and resilience will maintain the long-term basic stability of China's cross-border capital flows. "
5. Industrial Securities: In the long run, two things worthy of attention-the solvency of the central bank and the means of regulation and control have not weakened, but have strengthened. First, although foreign reserves have declined, the solvency of the central bank has not weakened. Second, the central bank's regulatory capacity has increased. Information such as Draghi's speech in June and the IMF report show that the recognition of moderate capital account control by central banks is on the rise.
6. Guosen Securities: In the next year or two, the RMB exchange rate is likely to depreciate in a small range, and there is no arbitrage space for the currency itself within such a range. In the short term, it is very unlikely that the RMB exchange rate will continue to fall sharply around 6.7.
References Jinhui Finance/