Judging from its direct impact:
First of all, many low-income property buyers are affected. Unable to repay the loan, they will face the dilemma that their houses will be repossessed by the bank.
Secondly, in the future, more subprime mortgage institutions will suffer serious losses because they cannot recover their loans, and even be forced to apply for bankruptcy protection.
Finally, many investment funds in the United States and Europe will also be hit hard because they have bought a large number of securities investment products derived from subprime mortgages.
This crisis has undoubtedly brought a lot of enlightenment to the domestic financial industry. In terms of financial innovation, mortgage market development and financial supervision, since the outbreak of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States, the pain of subprime mortgage can not be underestimated in the United States and even the world, no matter from the fluctuation of the global capital market or the changes of the real economy in the United States. For China, this storm has sounded the alarm for us to be prepared for danger in times of peace.
The banking industry bears the brunt of the US subprime mortgage crisis. Paying attention to the hidden risks behind housing mortgage loans is a problem that commercial banks in China should pay special attention to at present. In the period of the overall rise of the real estate market, housing mortgage loan is a high-quality asset of commercial banks, with relatively high loan yield and low default rate. In case of default, you can get compensation by auctioning the mortgaged property. At present, the real estate mortgage loan occupies a considerable proportion in the assets of China Commercial Bank, and it is also one of the main sources of loan income. According to the New Basel Capital Accord, the risk provision made by commercial banks for real estate mortgage loans is relatively low. However, once the real estate market price generally drops and the mortgage interest rate rises, the default rate of buyers will rise sharply, and the real estate value after auction may be lower than the total principal and interest of mortgage loans or even the principal, which will lead to a sharp rise in the bad debt rate of commercial banks and have an impact on their profitability and capital adequacy ratio. However, it is unlikely that the overall price of China real estate market will drop in the near future. However, in the long run, the risk of mortgage loans issued by the banking system cannot be ignored. At this stage, strict loan conditions and loan review system must be implemented.
In fact, the source of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is that American real estate financial institutions relaxed the loan conditions during the market boom and launched loan products that were loose before they tightened. China commercial banks should pay full attention to the lessons of American subprime mortgage crisis. First, strictly implement the down payment policy, moderately increase the down payment ratio of loans, and put an end to the phenomenon of zero down payment; Second, strict pre-lending credit review should be adopted to avoid false mortgage.
Before the subprime mortgage crisis broke out, the American economy had been running on the platform of high growth rate, low inflation rate and low unemployment rate for more than five years, and the topic of "high fever" in the American housing market also lasted for several years. Before the real estate market cooled down, China and the United States had some similarities.
The biggest warning of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is to be alert to the impact of macro-control policies formulated in response to the economic cycle on specific markets. The root cause of the subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is the decline of the real estate market caused by the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. At present, China is facing the situation of accelerating inflation. If the central bank takes measures to substantially increase the interest rate of RMB loans to curb inflationary pressure, it should be alert to two effects: first, the impact of loan tightening on real estate development enterprises may lead to the break of developers' funds; Second, the increasing repayment pressure of mortgage applicants may lead to an increase in mortgage default rate. These two influences will eventually converge on the commercial banking system, leading to an increase in the non-performing loan ratio of commercial banks and a decrease in the value of real estate as collateral, which will ultimately affect the profitability and even viability of commercial banks.
People need to know the difference between the economic cycle and the housing market cycle between China and the United States. The United States is a country with a long history of market economy under the global system, with strong periodicity, and is currently in the late stage of this economic cycle.
China, on the other hand, has not experienced a complete economic cycle. Even though the reform and opening up has only been 30 years, it was only 1992 and 1993 that the market economy was put forward. At present, the key words of China's economy are imbalance between supply and demand and large demand for fixed investment. This is the key point that distinguishes the American economy from the cycle close to 10. In addition, the cycle of the Chinese and American housing markets is also different. After the implementation of housing reform in China, there was no housing market for many years before, and the demand soared. Although the housing market in China is also driven by speculative factors, the most important reason is the large demand and limited supply. In addition, the government has room to regulate the real estate market in China.
The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States also inspired China's macroeconomic regulation and control. There are three main aspects:
First, asset prices need to be included in the monitoring object of the central bank's monetary policy. Because once the asset price finally affects the total demand or supply through wealth effect or other channels, it will have an impact on the inflation rate. Even if the central bank implements the inflation targeting system, it should take the fluctuation of asset prices as an important reference for formulating monetary policy;
Second, when carrying out macro-control, we should comprehensively consider the possible negative effects of regulatory policies. For example, the continuous interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve may not pay enough attention to the pressure of the real estate market.