Keywords: RMB exchange rate exchange rate system reform
So far, China's RMB exchange rate system has been adjusted several times: pegged to the US dollar (1949- 1952), basically pegged to the US dollar (1953- 1972), pegged to a basket of currencies (I973-/kloc-0). The dual exchange rate system (198 1- 1984) in which the official exchange rate and the trade settlement exchange rate coexist, and the dual exchange rate system (1985- 1993) in which a single and managed floating exchange rate system is implemented based on market supply and demand.
First, the main problems of the current RMB exchange rate system
On the premise that foreign exchange banks, enterprises and residents can't hold foreign exchange completely according to their wishes, China's foreign exchange market has the characteristics of closure, monopoly, few trading varieties and narrow exchange rate fluctuation space. In such a market environment, there are some defects in the RMB exchange rate system:
(A) the degree of marketization of the exchange rate formation mechanism is not enough
The current RMB exchange rate formation mechanism is based on the bank settlement and sale system and the quota management of foreign exchange banks' participation in inter-bank foreign exchange market transactions, which makes the foreign exchange held by market participants, especially Chinese-funded enterprises and commercial banks, have to be sold to foreign exchange banks, and it is impossible to choose the appropriate time and quantity of foreign exchange sales according to their future needs and expectations of future exchange rate trends; On the other hand, as far as the sale of foreign exchange by banks is concerned, there are either certain conditions or strict controls. Therefore, China's foreign exchange market is a market with asymmetric supply and demand, that is, under certain institutional constraints, the foreign exchange supply is complete and the foreign exchange demand is partial. By controlling the quota of foreign exchange banks and the huge foreign exchange reserves and money supply rights, the central bank has largely controlled the generation of exchange rates, and the resulting exchange rates are not real market prices.
Since the exchange rate reform of 1994, the RMB exchange rate has basically remained at 1 USD in other years except that 1994 has appreciated by 3.5%, 195 by 0.6% and in 2005 by 2%. It is true that the stability of exchange rate is of course beneficial to economic development, but the stability we pursue should be dynamic stability reflecting market environment factors, and it is by no means static and fixed. In the case of excessive static stability, the RMB exchange rate cannot be adjusted in time with the changes of internal and external economic environment, which not only loses the economic leverage adjustment function of the exchange rate, but also dilutes the risk concept of the trading subject; At the same time, in order to maintain exchange rate stability, the People's Bank of China passively entered the market and bought a large amount of foreign exchange, forming a huge national foreign exchange reserve. The reserve assets held by the central bank mainly in US dollars will face significant exchange rate risks.
(B) the service function of the foreign exchange market is not perfect
On the one hand, there are some problems in China's foreign exchange market, such as too concentrated trading subjects and single trading tools. At present, China's inter-bank foreign exchange market is mainly composed of state-owned commercial banks, joint-stock commercial banks, approved foreign-funded financial institutions, a small number of non-bank financial institutions with high credit standing and the central bank's operation room. In terms of transaction volume, China Bank is the largest seller of foreign exchange, and China People's Bank is the largest buyer of foreign exchange, accounting for more than 60% of the total transaction volume; In terms of trading varieties, there are only US dollars, Japanese yen and Hong Kong dollars, and the trading volume is mainly US dollars. The main body composition is relatively simple, and the variety and volume of transactions are relatively concentrated, which makes the exchange rate have the color of "official and private" transactions; From the perspective of forward foreign exchange market, the forward foreign exchange market between banks and customers based on actual demand in China's foreign exchange market is still in its infancy, with less trading volume and no speculation. However, in developed foreign financial markets, speculative trading coexists with arbitrage and arbitrage activities.
On the other hand, the foreign exchange market is isolated from other financial markets. Both theory and practice have proved that perfect short-term money market and flexible interest rate, especially short-term interest rate, are important economic levers to ensure active foreign exchange trading and dynamic stability of exchange rate. However, due to China's strict control over the capital account and the non-marketization of interest rates, the foreign exchange market is almost isolated from the short-term money market and the capital market, and the correlation between RMB exchange rate and RMB interest rate and US dollar interest rate is extremely low.
(C) adversely affect the external balance
1, the balance of payments continued to be in surplus, and foreign exchange reserves grew rapidly.
China's rapid economic growth has promoted the rapid development of China's export trade. In 2003, China surpassed the United States for the first time and became the largest recipient of foreign direct investment in the world. China's balance of payments shows a double surplus of current account and capital account. According to the figures released by the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, China's foreign exchange reserves were US$ 280 billion at the end of 2002, over US$ 400 billion in 2003, US$ 609.9 billion in 2004 and US$ 8 189 billion in 2005. By the end of June 2006, the balance of China's foreign exchange reserves reached 94,654.38+01.65438. On the one hand, huge foreign exchange reserves and long-term persistent trade surplus have triggered international trade disputes, and countries such as the United States and Japan have used this as an excuse to encourage RMB appreciation; On the other hand, it has also formed a huge amount of foreign exchange, which objectively increased the pressure of RMB appreciation.
2. The weak dollar policy continued, and oil prices climbed to a high level.
In recent years, the seven industrialized countries in the west have been calling on China to take action on exchange rate policy. The United States and Japan have taken the lead in directly asking China to greatly appreciate the RMB in the near future, and the RMB exchange rate is under great pressure of appreciation. The biggest currency manipulator today is the United States, and Bush has actually been implementing a weak dollar policy since he took office. From 2002 to 2005, the current account deficit of the United States increased from $475 billion to $805 billion. American policymakers try their best to depress the dollar, hoping to achieve a balance at a low dollar value and promote its export growth, so as to minimize the deficit and prevent other countries' currencies from falling. America's weak dollar policy may eventually lead to a hard landing of the global economy. Recently, the international crude oil price continues to rise, which leads to the deterioration of China's international terms of trade, and the rising prices of other raw materials denominated in US dollars, which greatly increases China's import cost and domestic inflationary pressure. For this imported inflation, it is of little significance to control it by means of interest rate, but it can get good results through exchange rate adjustment.
Two, some opinions on deepening the reform of RMB exchange rate
(A) a correct understanding and response to the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism reform
On July 2, 2005, the trading price of USD against RMB was adjusted to 1 USD against RMB 8. 1 1 RMB, which was 2% higher than before. Economists generally hold a positive attitude towards this exchange rate rise. Zhu Baoliang, chief economist of the Economic Forecasting Department of the State Information Center, calculated that, other things being equal, a 2% appreciation of RMB will reduce exports by about 1.5%, imports by 0.3% or 0.4%, GDP by about 0.5%, employment by 500,000 people and corresponding fiscal revenue. But overall, the impact will not be too great. While not denying the negative effects of RMB appreciation on exports, employment and attracting foreign investment, we should see its positive effects. A small appreciation of RMB is conducive to maintaining China's macroeconomic stability, enhancing consumers' purchasing power and improving the terms of trade. At present, with the rising prices of petroleum, mineral products and other resource products, a small appreciation of RMB is conducive to enterprises to reduce import costs, introduce technology and equipment, and improve their international competitiveness. At the same time, it will also benefit domestic residents to travel abroad, study abroad and seek medical treatment. In addition, it will also play a certain role in promoting the free convertibility of RMB. The exchange rate of RMB should be changed and adjusted regularly and appropriately, so as to reflect the development and changes of international payments more accurately and avoid excessive and lasting overvaluation or underestimation, so as to effectively adjust the imbalance of international payments. In this regard, there are many international experiences for reference. After Mexico joined the North American Free Trade Area (NAFTA) in 1993, it continued to maintain the rigid peg mechanism between the Mexican peso and the US dollar in a more open market economy environment, which eventually led to the peso crisis at the end of 1994 and the collapse of Mexico's exchange rate system. 1997 On the eve of the Southeast Asian financial crisis, the exchange rate of the Thai baht was seriously overvalued, and the Thai baht faced enormous depreciation pressure. As investors concluded that the Thai government would passively abandon the exchange rate peg, foreign exchange speculation increased sharply in the short term, which eventually led to a sharp depreciation of the Thai baht, and the Thai government was forced to abandon the exchange rate peg arrangement.
It is necessary to further reform the existing compulsory foreign exchange settlement and sale system, relax the access restrictions of the foreign exchange market, allow more enterprises and financial institutions to participate, and provide strong support for the development of enterprises; It is necessary to improve the market organization system and realize the transformation of the transaction nature to the financial foreign exchange market with modern market form; Appropriately increase foreign exchange trading tools, especially futures option trading, swap trading and repurchase trading, to further develop and improve China's foreign exchange market. Enterprises should seize the opportunity, actively promote the pace of structural adjustment, change the operating mechanism, enhance their independent innovation ability, master various foreign exchange hedging tools and means as soon as possible, strengthen economic accounting, and improve their ability to adapt to exchange rate fluctuations and respond to exchange rate changes.
(2) Actively respond to the expectation of further appreciation of RMB and the pressure of international hot money speculation.
It can be expected that in the face of a more flexible orientation of RMB exchange rate mechanism in the future, we should speed up the corresponding supporting reforms, vigorously guard against financial risks, and lay a solid foundation for further exchange rate reform.
Since a small appreciation of RMB has little impact on China's exports and the competitiveness of China's products remains strong, the United States and Europe will continue to put pressure on China to further appreciate RMB. The expectation of appreciation is lingering, and the funds speculating on RMB appreciation are expected to continue to flow into the mainland and Hong Kong, which is likely to cause a bubble in the mainland asset market. How to deal with RMB appreciation and hot money speculation is a problem that regulators need to continue to face in the future. Because the RMB exchange rate needs to reach a balance point that takes into account the interests of all parties, it needs time to adjust steadily and it is impossible to change frequently, so it is eager to achieve success. Therefore, while paying attention to keeping the RMB exchange rate relatively stable, we must consider the "flood discharge" channel to reduce the situation that excessive hot money in the market leads to overheating and rising inflation, so as not to affect the domestic economic and financial stability.
(c) A more flexible RMB exchange rate will make it more difficult for the central bank to manage the foreign exchange market
After the RMB exchange rate reform, the flexibility of the exchange rate will be expanded, the activity of the foreign exchange market will be enhanced, the trade fairs will be more frequent, the uncertainty will increase, and it will be more difficult for the central bank to manage the foreign exchange market. Under the more flexible exchange rate formation mechanism, the central bank should follow certain principles when intervening in the foreign exchange market, and try to avoid becoming the price setter in the foreign exchange market. In order to strengthen the risk management of the foreign exchange market and promote the development and maturity of the foreign exchange market, we must:
1. Closely guard against and actively monitor excessive fluctuations and speculative trends in the foreign exchange market.
Establish the monitoring and early warning index and system of foreign exchange market as soon as possible, especially strengthen the monitoring of large capital flows, improve the operating tools of foreign exchange market, and at the same time increase the transparency of the central bank's open market operation and stabilize market expectations; Pay special attention to the monitoring of the liquidity of the foreign exchange market and make emergency plans to prevent the systemic liquidity crisis.
2. Expand the fluctuation range of exchange rate in a timely manner and increase the flexibility of RMB exchange rate.
At present, it is necessary to use a full floating range, which will send a signal to the market that the central bank will reduce intervention and help the market face up to exchange rate risks. After the market gradually adapts to exchange rate fluctuations, it will gradually expand the floating range depending on the changes in the economic and financial situation and the supply and demand situation in the foreign exchange market. The setting of appropriate floating range not only makes short-term exchange rate fluctuations flexible, but also provides a certain buffer space for the balanced exchange rate level that is difficult to measure accurately, which is the basis of a managed floating exchange rate system. Gradually expanding the floating range of exchange rate requires a relatively perfect foreign exchange market as a support. However, under the current foreign exchange market structure, there are only forward foreign exchange settlement and swap businesses mainly based on firm trading, and the cost for enterprises and residents to avoid exchange rate risks is very high. It is obviously unbearable to rashly introduce large exchange rate fluctuations. In addition, the price discovery function of the foreign exchange market is limited under the limited market transaction subjects. Moreover, if the exchange rate range is relaxed under immature conditions, commercial banks will choose to set prices at both ends of the exchange rate range, so the central bank will have to intervene in the middle of the exchange rate range. In this case, it is actually the central bank that determines the exchange rate, not the fully market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism. Therefore, expanding the floating range in time will be the key link of RMB exchange rate reform.
3. Improve the RMB exchange rate formation mechanism and improve the marketization of the exchange rate formation mechanism.
At present, the compulsory foreign exchange settlement and sale system of domestic enterprises should gradually transition to the voluntary foreign exchange settlement and sale system. In the reform of compulsory foreign exchange settlement system, we can consider expanding the scope of enterprises that are allowed to retain foreign exchange income under current account; For existing enterprises that are allowed to keep foreign exchange settlement accounts, we can also consider expanding the amount of foreign exchange that can be retained. After the transition from the compulsory foreign exchange settlement and sale system to the willing foreign exchange settlement and sale system, we can consider increasing the trading subjects in the foreign exchange market, allowing more enterprises and financial institutions to directly participate in foreign exchange transactions, and avoiding large institutions from monopolizing the market price level by centralized trading.
4. Pay attention to the risk supervision of the main participants in the foreign exchange market.
The supervision of foreign exchange market is mainly aimed at banks and institutional investors who participate in foreign exchange market activities, and the focus of supervision is to maintain the security and stability of these institutions. The main contents of supervision are to check the trading system, risk control system, capital adequacy ratio, information disclosure and the implementation of standard exchange rate risks by market participants. China should vigorously develop the forward foreign exchange market, enrich the varieties of foreign exchange market transactions, and provide exchange rate risk management tools for enterprises and financial institutions. At present, China's foreign exchange market is mainly based on spot foreign exchange transactions, and the forward foreign exchange market between banks and customers based on actual needs is still in its infancy, with less trading volume. From June 5, 2005 to 10, the People's Bank of China conducted a questionnaire survey on 302 typical enterprises in provinces with more import and export. The results show that from August to September, 2005, trade financing ranks first among all kinds of hedging methods, accounting for 30.8%; Followed by financial derivatives, accounting for 28%; In addition, there are some ways to avoid exchange rate risks, such as changing the way of trade settlement, raising the price of export products, switching to non-US dollar settlement, and increasing the proportion of domestic sales. In addition to trade financing and financial derivatives, other hedging tools used by enterprises include: changing the trade settlement method (19.97%), raising the price of export products (8.72%), and switching to non-US dollar currency settlement (6.06%). At present, the scale of hedging tools used by Chinese enterprises is still small, which is not commensurate with the overall scale of foreign trade. The awareness, ability and international competitiveness of enterprises need to be further improved, and the exchange rate hedging service of financial institutions needs to be strengthened. The lack of trading varieties and monotonous trading methods in the foreign exchange market are important factors restricting the expansion of China's foreign exchange market. We should consider conducting pilot projects of RMB foreign exchange futures and options selectively, so as to lay a foundation for launching related financial derivatives in the future, and let enterprises use various tools in the financial market reasonably and effectively to prevent foreign exchange risks in the case of large exchange rate fluctuations. & ltbr & lt= p = & gt