Xie, chief macro analyst of China Merchants Securities, said? If the risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange purchase is reduced from 20% to 0, the cost of forward foreign exchange purchase will be reduced. When other factors remain unchanged, it will increase the enthusiasm of enterprises to purchase foreign exchange in the future and increase the demand in the foreign exchange market. ?
Forward sale of foreign exchange is a derivative product of exchange rate hedging provided by banks to enterprises. Enterprises can avoid future exchange rate risks to some extent by purchasing foreign exchange in the future. However, because enterprises do not purchase foreign exchange immediately, banks need to purchase foreign exchange in the spot market accordingly, which will affect the spot exchange rate and then affect the long-term purchase behavior of enterprises.
This procyclical behavior can easily evolve into? Herd effect? . 20 15? 8. 1 1? Later, in order to curb excessive fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, the central bank brought forward foreign exchange sales of banks into the macro-prudential policy framework, and charged foreign exchange risk reserves to financial institutions that carried out forward foreign exchange sales on behalf of customers, with the reserve ratio set at 20%.
In fact, this is not the first time that the central bank has adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio for forward sales. Since 20 15, with the in-depth implementation of supply-side structural reform, decentralization and innovation-driven strategy, the coordination of China's economic growth has been further enhanced.
Cross-border capital flows and supply and demand in the foreign exchange market return to balance, and market expectations tend to be rational. From 2065438 to September 2007, the central bank timely adjusted the counter-cyclical macro-prudential management measures introduced in the previous period to curb the pro-cyclical fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and adjust the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to 0.
20 18 adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio again. At that time, influenced by trade frictions and changes in the international money market, there were some signs of pro-cyclical fluctuations in the foreign exchange market. In order to prevent macro-financial risks, promote the stable operation of financial institutions and strengthen macro-prudential management, the central bank decided to adjust the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales from 0 to 20% from August 6, 20/KLOC-0.
Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, said? The foreign exchange risk reserve ratio is a counter-cyclical adjustment tool. Through adjustment, we can prevent the RMB from excessively appreciating or depreciating, and realize the two-way fluctuation of RMB against the US dollar at a reasonable and balanced level. ?
Why should we adjust the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio at this time? Xie said: Reducing the risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales business is to reduce the constraints on forward foreign exchange behavior or to increase the demand of foreign exchange market.
This is obviously a decision made by the central bank according to the current foreign exchange market situation, that is, to relax the restrictions on forward foreign exchange purchase under the situation of rapid rise of RMB, with the aim of letting the foreign exchange market determine the RMB exchange rate. ?
Increase the demand for foreign exchange purchase by enterprises in the future and maintain a reasonable and balanced RMB exchange rate.
It is worth mentioning that on the first trading day after the holiday, the RMB exchange rate ushered in a sharp rise. As of 10, 9, 19, the onshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar (CNY) hit 6.7038, up 872 basis points from the previous trading day, with an intraday high of 6.7037. The offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar (CNH) hit 6.6924, successfully recovering the integer mark of 6.7.
According to Wang Youxin, a researcher at China Banking Research Institute? Since the end of May, the RMB exchange rate has continuously appreciated, especially after the National Day, and the RMB rose to 6.7, a new high since April 20 19. Although exchange rate appreciation can reduce import costs, stabilize cross-border capital flows and boost the capital market, rapid appreciation has also hurt the already fragile entities and export sectors to some extent, partially inhibiting economic recovery.
He believes that at this time, reducing the risk reserve ratio of forward foreign exchange sales and reducing the cost of forward foreign exchange purchase by enterprises will help increase the demand for foreign exchange purchase, slow down the appreciation speed and speed of the exchange rate to a certain extent, and better realize the stability and two-way fluctuation of the exchange rate.
FICC, chief analyst of CITIC Securities, clearly pointed out? This shows that the central bank does not pursue trend appreciation, and a reasonable and balanced RMB exchange rate is still the main goal. Since August, affected by the overall weakness of the US dollar, including the loose monetary policy of the Federal Reserve, the US dollar has continued to weaken, and the cumulative appreciation of the RMB in the last month or two has been relatively large.
Considering that the exchange rate goal of China's current monetary policy is still to maintain a reasonable and balanced RMB, it is necessary to make phased adjustments when the cumulative appreciation of RMB has been relatively large. Therefore, by reducing the reserve for forward sale of foreign exchange, we can further balance the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market and keep the RMB exchange rate stable in a reasonable and balanced position. ?
Wen Bin also said that reducing the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to zero at this time will not only help the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar to maintain a reasonable and balanced level, but also help banks to reduce the cost of selling foreign exchange in the future and increase the demand of enterprises for this product, so as to better manage exchange rate risks by using derivatives.