At present, the risk is still great. It is recommended that friends with stocks follow the trend. If the stocks are divided in the last two trading days, the weak stocks can lighten their positions or go out on rallies, and the strong stocks can wait and see for the time being. Most short-term stocks basically have a profit of 15%. When the profit of short-term bargain-hunting funds increases to about 25%, you may choose to cash out. Please pay attention to the risks. The reason for this adjustment may be related to the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, a company with a long history in the United States, whose bankruptcy direct debt is as high as 6 100 billion dollars (although Bank of Balek was approved to acquire part of Lehman's business with a transaction amount of 654,380+035 billion dollars: it refused to fully acquire the company, so the bankruptcy trend of the company is still inevitable), and the subprime mortgage crisis is obviously not over. It is not ruled out that more similar companies will declare bankruptcy due to debts. The US economy may face recession for more than three years, so we have to guard against the negative impact on the future of the world (including China), which may lead to the profits of many enterprises in China and indirectly affect the China stock market. Therefore, this news shows us that the macro pressure in the future will not be alleviated, but there is a risk of deterioration. Although the U.S. government has proposed a new $700 billion rescue plan to Congress, the predicament of the U.S. economy is in front of us, with debts as high as 5 trillion. Can this 700 billion really be approved by Congress? where is the money to come from? This is a variable, and if it is not handled properly, this problem may become a potentially significant negative. ) and the government finally suddenly attacked the long-awaited welfare. First, stamp duty was changed to unilateral levy of one thousandth. Personal understanding of this policy is to pay attention to the degree of benefits brought by this policy, which is indeed positive, but the effect will be less than that brought by the last tax reduction! Last time, the bull market was relatively strong, which brought nearly 654.38+02 billion incremental funds to the stock market. In fact, the real rebound of the market is only four days, and the incremental funds brought by this tax cut are estimated to be no more than 40 billion. This is the most optimistic estimate, because the funds in the stock market are now as deep as 90%, and their funds for covering positions are not very abundant, because most of their funds for covering positions were exhausted in the last stamp duty market and the previous continuous decline in bargain-hunting, and there were very few funds that really survived. The premise is that these funds have not been covered, and 90% of the funds are too deep to be bought and sold, and there is no fund for the so-called large-scale bargain-hunting. Therefore, tax reduction is of no real significance to them, and institutions will not miss this opportunity to borrow good goods to see what institutions did when stamp duty dropped last time. Second, Huijin announced that it would buy back shares of ICBC, China Construction Bank and China Construction Bank in the secondary market, and the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) expressed its support for the central enterprises to buy back shares (some public opinions in the market deliberately called it the admission of the stabilization fund, but the promoters of the stabilization fund have indicated that the fund has not yet determined the source of funds, and there is no timetable for the real admission, and the company is directly managed by the central bank under the Ministry of Finance, and has used foreign exchange reserves to hold huge shares of the above three banks. The loss of the company's profits in this wave of plunge can be described as very heavy, so the company's purchase of shares in the secondary market this time is suspected of boosting the stock price, because the company restricted the sale of shares to ICBC as an example. If you don't hold the share price now, it may be halved when the restricted shares are listed on "China Bank lifted the ban on July 27th, 2009". Then the company's profits may continue to shrink to near the cost price, so the company's strategic investment can be regarded as a failure. For example, if the company distrusts the stock price and makes it fall to 2 yuan, the current market value of 354 billion may shrink to 236 billion, which is unacceptable compared with the company's stock price of 654.38+000 billion at its peak. Therefore, the purpose of holding the stock price is to sell it at a higher price after the expiration of the lifting of the ban. It may be a long-term investment that is not optimistic about the market. This is also forced by the market. The stock price will not return to the position where most people are trapped, because the company exists for arbitrage. Who did the retail investors sell their shares to? Huijin's stock market value will rebound, and then put it on the market, and it will be profitable again in this cycle! People's money is constantly sucked in to make up for the astronomical capital injection losses caused by the central bank in the operation of state-owned enterprises, and the use of national foreign exchange reserves to make up for the losses caused by the system and mechanism of state-owned enterprises has also been questioned by some scholars and experts. )< The news is good in the short term, but if the company does not promise not to sell shares and hold them for a long time after the lifting of the ban, the news may become a major negative in the future, because the company may bring about 800 billion selling pressure to the stock market. Can the stock market afford it? It is unrealistic for the state to encourage state-owned enterprises to actively buy back their own stocks. It is difficult for many state-owned enterprises to survive at a loss. Do you really have so much money to buy stocks that you don't know where it is, so you give up normal operations? It's only a matter of time before the> size problem is solved to 1500, and it won't be the lowest point. On Friday, most of the stocks were close to the daily limit, especially when the buying was dozens of times more than the selling at the opening moment, there was a huge selling order, and the funds that were madly chased fell back. Although the market is closed again, only the scale and large institutions can do this. Although the market will continue to be closed after the morning session, the intention is to create an absolutely overwhelming illusion of bulls, giving off-exchange funds space and confidence, and institutions will spray more through the media and stock reviews. Only when the institutions in the market improve their selling chips will there be more funds to take the initiative to receive chips and pull the boat again. 2270 is the first pressure level of this rebound and 2500 is the second pressure level. Take it when you are ready. If the size problem that caused this bear market is really solved by time as suggested by Xinhua News Agency's comments, there is still hope in the 20 1 1 year after the peak of lifting the ban, and the main shipping market is bottomless. At the bottom, the large-scale opening of positions by institutions is not suggested by retail investors to be stable, and investors with high security requirements do not intervene. Holding money mainly leads to a wait-and-see attitude. The size problem that led to the plunge directly led to the imbalance of funds, and the empty side suppressed many parties for a long time. In this long-term trend, funds are occupied by the empty side, and the market naturally fluctuates for a long time. This is the real reason why stocks keep falling. Because the downward trend caused by the shortage of funds has been formed, investors should remain rational and not blindly optimistic. The stock market is complicated and simple. The complexity is that any factor may lead to changes in the stock market. The simple thing is that the long-term short-term trend of funds determines the long-term ups and downs of the market, but the stock market can't just fall and not rise, and it will definitely rebound on the way down, but the extent of the rebound should be judged according to the good news of the policy. If the market is still supported by these non-substantial good news, then every rebound is an opportunity to lighten up. After the size is not limited, the market can ease the financial pressure and bring a wave of intermediate rebound or even reversal. As long as the core problem leading to the plunge is not solved, investors will regard it as a rebound and lighten their positions on rallies. The accumulation of investors' confidence in continuous oversold makes bargain-hunting funds very cautious. Although bargain-hunting funds try to change this downward trend, the situation is not very optimistic. The current stock market is not as lacking in confidence and funds as the government said. Personally, I feel that both lack the shadow of size. This year is the lightest year, and the funds for lifting the ban are only 3 trillion yuan, but it has already made the main funds in the market unbearable (before the main funds began to ship, the main funds in the market were only 3 trillion yuan, but the scale was not enough to eliminate). Although the government has provided a fund, it has to talk about politics. However, it seems that the actual effect is not great, and the action of the organization to continue to rebound and ship has not stopped. We have to choose the strategy of fighting and retreating to reduce losses. Even if the government put forward the so-called positive measures to prevent the stock market from continuing to fall before the Olympics, as long as it is not a substantive solution to the problem of size and size, it will only be some anodyne policies. In the current market situation where the long-short balance of funds is broken, even if there is a trend of sideways operation or a slight rebound during the Olympics under favorable stimulation, investors should not be too optimistic, because they should be cautious, because the substantive problems have not been solved, and the funds will continue to be tight. If there is a rebound caused by policies, it is wise to reduce rallies. Don't believe that stock reviews don't consider the actual big market. As the scale of non-lifting funds in 2009 was nearly 7 trillion, 20 10 years, the lifting funds were nearly 10 trillion, which has far exceeded the 3 trillion this year. Therefore, before the core problem that led to this plunge is solved, the pressure on the capital side is impossible to solve, and any marginal favorable policies will only bring about a rebound rather than a reversal. Although the stock market is very complicated, it is actually very simple. The rule of the stock market is that those who sell will fall, and those who buy more than those who sell will rise. Most people understand this truth, but why are some people unwilling to face it when the funds have already been reflected? Don't believe that there is also a need for long-term investment in size and size. Low-cost or even zero-cost listing, the profit is as high as 400% or even as high as 1000%. In a weak market, do you think the non-holders will settle down or continue to watch their profits shrink (non-holders are also investors, and profit comes first is their philosophy, when long-term investors think that only retail investors with institutional education will do this), and the selling force in a long-term trend is overwhelming for some reason, and it is self-deception to talk about when the bull market will come back. Non-substantive policies bring about a rebound, not a reversal. Because the strongest support area of the market is 3300~3400 points, and the so-called policy iron bottom with the strongest stock evaluation and institutions is 2990 points, it has collapsed rapidly in the case of unbalanced funds. Therefore, the short-term rebound is an opportunity to reduce positions without the support of new favorable policies. Of course, if the marginal favorable policy brings bargain-hunting funds, it is of course best to bring about a relatively large rebound, which is a rare opportunity for retail investors. Strictly controlling positions is the only thing I want to say now. Every rebound and lightening positions are rigorous. Only when you have money in your hand can you have the initiative and you can usher in the real bottom. The bottom is the main force, not the retail investors. When the main force is forced to lighten up their positions under the pressure of non-size, what small and medium-sized investors can do is to follow the trend, rather than move against the trend. We should also control our positions when the institutions lighten up their positions. The above is purely a personal opinion, please adopt it carefully.