The exchange rate of RMB has broken through the barrier one after another, and the appreciation of RMB has recently become the focus of attention. As a foreign trader, it can be said that this is an extremely important thing. So today I reprinted many posts about "the impact of RMB appreciation on foreign trade". I hope to have a comprehensive understanding of this. Please clarify some knowledge about exchange rate before reposting. 1. floating exchange rate system: an international exchange rate system. Under this system, the exchange rate is mainly determined by market forces (that is, the relationship between supply and demand), and the government does not set and maintain a specific exchange rate. Sometimes it is also called "floating exchange rate". When the government does not intervene in the foreign exchange market, this system is called pure floating system. Pegging to a "basket" (also known as "basket") currency is a floating exchange rate system, which has two characteristics: one is to preserve the value, and the other is to have a small fluctuation range. 2. With the approval of the State Council, China began to implement a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand with reference to a basket of currencies on July 2, 2005. From the perspective of foreign trade dependence published by China Economic Weekly, RMB appreciation (with amendments) will do more harm than good in the short term, but in the long run, it is an inevitable choice for China to get rid of the image of "world factory" of primary products, promote industrial upgrading, reduce the dependence of China's economy on foreign trade, and make China's economy more balanced, stable and sustainable. Short-term: the disadvantages outweigh the advantages. The direct impact of RMB appreciation on China's economy is simply that it is beneficial to import, not to export, and to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). After the appreciation of RMB, on the one hand, the amount needed for domestic investment has increased, and the cost of foreign investment has increased, which has affected the enthusiasm of foreign investment. On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB will greatly reduce the amount needed to complete investment abroad, and some investors with investment intentions may transfer their investment intentions. Generally speaking, the size of a country largely determines its dependence on foreign trade. Large countries have low dependence on foreign trade, while small countries have high dependence on foreign trade. Surprisingly, as a big country, China's economy is increasingly dependent on the growth of foreign trade. For example, in 2004, the foreign trade dependence of China's gross domestic product (GDP) was as high as 70%. The maturity of a country's economy also largely determines its dependence on foreign trade. The more developed economies are, the less dependent they are on foreign trade. The dependence on foreign trade is as high as 70%, which shows that China's economy is heavily dependent on the international market. For example, the export dependence of clothing, shoes and hats is 7 1%, and that of DVD players is 63%. These industries are very sensitive to changes in the RMB exchange rate. China's export products only earn processing fees for processing parts. The profit of modern international industrial value chain shows that the profit of processing and production industry is only 5%. For 5% profit, 2% exchange rate adjustment may be a matter of life and death for China's export enterprises. Another possible negative effect of RMB appreciation is to affect foreign direct investment in China. China has become the country that attracts the most foreign investment in the world. There is no doubt that foreign direct investment plays an important role in China's economy. It is worth noting that China's dependence on foreign direct investment (FDI) is related to its dependence on foreign trade. China has been adopting an economic policy to encourage exports and foreign direct investment in recent years, and China's economic development cannot be separated from exports and foreign direct investment. Of course, the appreciation of RMB will increase the international purchasing power of RMB and bring benefits to China's foreign trade imports. However, China is more dependent on exports than imports. In other words, from the immediate quantifiable indicators, China gains less from RMB appreciation than from RMB appreciation. Since the short-term quantifiable indicators show that the disadvantages of RMB appreciation outweigh the advantages, why did the China government choose to appreciate? Why choose this opportunity of appreciation? An important reason for reducing trade friction and improving foreign trade environment is that the trade friction between China and developed countries in Europe and America continues to increase and the foreign trade export environment deteriorates. According to the data of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first three quarters of 2004, 13 countries and regions initiated 46 anti-dumping, countervailing, safeguard measures and special safeguard investigations against China, involving a total amount of110/00 billion US dollars. China suffered countervailing investigation for the first time after its entry into WTO, and the amount involved in safeguard measures doubled. The fundamental reason for the deterioration of foreign trade export environment is that China, as a big exporting country with high dependence on foreign trade, has an unreasonable foreign trade structure. China's export market is concentrated in the United States, the European Union and other countries, and its trade with these countries accounts for 83% of its total export. Due to the single type of export products (mainly concentrated in labor-intensive products), the lack of their own core technologies and products, the added value of export products is low, and the price of export products is at a low price. Under such circumstances, on the one hand, China needs exports to boost its economy; On the other hand, with the increase of exports, China's terms of trade are getting worse and worse. RMB appreciation can reduce China's trade surplus, reduce the trade friction between China and European and American countries, and improve the foreign trade environment. Promoting industrial upgrading and structural transformation If we further analyze the situation of various industries after the appreciation of RMB, we can draw the following conclusions: Because of the increase of labor cost, labor-intensive enterprises (such as clothing, toys and textiles) will be damaged; Technology-intensive and capital-intensive enterprises (such as machinery and transportation equipment industry, aviation, chemical industry and communication, etc.). ) will benefit. Due to the enhancement of international purchasing power brought by the appreciation of RMB, the machinery and transportation equipment industry benefits from the import of high-tech and equipment; Aviation enterprises have a large amount of dollar transactions and foreign debts in jet fuel, aircraft purchase, lease and maintenance, so the appreciation of RMB is beneficial to airlines, especially those with a large number of international routes; Chemical enterprises reduce the cost of purchasing raw materials and benefit from the import of energy and raw materials; Benefiting from the technology procurement and overseas asset acquisition of communication enterprises. From the perspective of industry interests, it can be seen that China government supports technology-intensive and capital-intensive enterprises through RMB appreciation, promotes industrial upgrading and structural transformation, and fundamentally improves the international competitiveness and risk resistance of China's foreign trade in the long run. From the perspective of attracting foreign investment, the investment cost of foreign investment has increased, but the impact of technology-intensive foreign-funded enterprises is far less than that of labor-intensive foreign-funded enterprises. This also meets the needs of China's industrial policy and scientific and technological progress policy. Encourage foreign investment to participate in the adjustment and optimization of domestic industrial structure to a greater extent, so that more and more enterprises will turn to the road of applying higher-end technology, reducing consumption and high efficiency, and developing more competitive products, thus getting rid of the image of China as a "world factory" with only primary manufactured goods. The negative impact of RMB appreciation on exports will help to adjust the market target structure of products, make foreign-funded projects pay more attention to the domestic market, boost economic growth by increasing domestic demand, thus reducing China's dependence on foreign trade and enabling China's economy to develop in a more balanced, stable and sustainable way. Exchange rate reform is not for appreciation. As far as China's domestic macroeconomic environment is concerned, China's economy was running on a stable and high-speed track in the first half of 2005. The economic indicators released in the first half of the year show that the economy grew by 9.5%, foreign trade maintained a sustained growth trend, and the enthusiasm for foreign investment remained strong; From the perspective of the international environment, the US economy continues to improve, and the US dollar is gradually strengthening, which is in the cycle of raising interest rates; However, international energy prices and raw material prices remain high. These internal and external environments have provided space and conditions for a small adjustment of RMB. It is particularly noteworthy that from 2003 to 2004, the import growth rate of China exceeded the export growth rate for two consecutive years. In 2004, the difference between China's import dependence and export dependence has been reduced to 1.94%. In the first half of 2005, the prices of energy and raw materials in the international market remained stable, and China's imports continued to grow at a high speed. In other words, the quantifiable gains of tangible purchasing power growth brought by RMB appreciation are close to the losses of exports. At the same time, RMB appreciation can bring long-term benefits that cannot be simply quantified, such as promoting industrial upgrading in China, improving the international trade environment in China, and reducing the pressure on foreign exchange reserves. Choosing this opportunity to adjust the exchange rate can minimize quantifiable losses. The narrowing of the difference in dependence on imports and exports is also reflected in the degree of this appreciation. In 2004, the difference between China's import dependence and export dependence was 1.94%. On the one hand, this small adjustment of 1.93% was to ease trade friction and improve international purchasing power; On the other hand, it will not have a destructive impact on exports and attracting foreign investment. It is noteworthy that the RMB only slightly adjusted by 1.93%, which was lower than the expectation of the world market. In fact, this RMB exchange rate adjustment was not the result of succumbing to the external pressure of speculative funds, but the China government took the initiative to adjust its exchange rate policy, aiming at promoting China's industrial upgrading and improving China's international trade environment. The small adjustment shows that China government attaches importance to the controllability and gradualism of adjustment, which is the result of long-term preparation and careful consideration. It also shows from one aspect that China government is full of confidence in its capital control ability and macro-market control ability. Small adjustments focus on controllability. After the exchange rate adjustment, the China government can make further adjustments according to the responses of imports, exports and foreign direct investment. On the one hand, it ensures the sustained and stable development of China's economy, and at the same time, it makes the RMB more attractive to neighboring countries and investors, which is conducive to the internationalization of the RMB and consolidates its position in the international foreign exchange market. It should be emphasized that the reform goal of RMB exchange rate system is not to appreciate, but to establish a more flexible exchange rate mechanism. This is closely related to the development of domestic macroeconomic situation, the perfection of financial system and the perfection of market system. This exchange rate reform is a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand and adjusted with reference to a basket of currencies. Based on market supply and demand, it shows that China's exchange rate policy will be more flexible, and the floating range of exchange rate will be adjusted according to market development and economic and financial situation. The implementation of reference to a basket of currencies can reduce China's dependence on the US dollar and reduce the impact of exchange rate fluctuations of major currencies in the world on China's economic development; The managed floating exchange rate system of "reference" rather than "peg" not only shows that the China government has retained the ability of exchange rate adjustment, but also shows that the China government has begun to actively use exchange rate policy to achieve a series of purposes such as adjusting the balance of international payments, promoting the industrial upgrading of China, maintaining the stability of financial markets, and enhancing the sustainability of economic development. August 2005-1810: 35: 00 China Economic Times.

Although expected, the announcement of RMB appreciation came too suddenly. Although, compared with the previous market expectation of 5%- 10%, the appreciation of 2% is only the first step for RMB to enter the floating exchange rate mechanism, but for those export-oriented enterprises in China who are used to the fixed exchange rate, this appreciation obviously has an impact on them. The moderate growth of 2% has limited impact on foreign trade. Knowing that RMB was going to appreciate, the boss of a textile foreign trade enterprise in Zhejiang secretly made an abacus. At present, the gross profit of most foreign trade clothing orders is 0.5 yuan RMB, that is, the products exported to 1 USD are 0.5 yuan RMB. A slight appreciation of 2% against the US dollar means that foreign trade enterprises will lose 0. 1 5 yuan's gross profit for every product they export. Together with other operating costs, the gross profit fell below 0.35 yuan, which means that it is almost unprofitable. The textile industry is greatly affected by the appreciation of RMB, because its profit has been very low in the past two years. For other industries, the profit rate of general foreign trade enterprises is between 3-5%, and the appreciation of RMB also reduces its profit rate. "When I wake up, the assets of enterprises evaporate a lot", which is the reaction of most foreign trade enterprises. The impact is not only reflected in the evaporation of the market value of US dollars in corporate accounts, but also for those enterprises that have not returned the goods according to the original exchange rate, or those enterprises that have signed orders, the appreciation of RMB will make the losses even greater. Long-term losses are also manifested in the increase of export prices brought by appreciation, which will directly reduce the competitive advantage of its products in the international market and have a certain negative impact on its performance. As a major exporting province, Zhejiang achieved an export of 28 billion US dollars in the first five months of this year, with a trade surplus of 16.1 billion US dollars, ranking first in the country. From January to April this year, Zhejiang's foreign trade exports increased by 40.2%, including clothing by about 26% and textiles by 35%. Restrictive policies in Europe and America are expected to affect 30% to 40% of textile export enterprises, and the appreciation of RMB will hit textile export enterprises again, especially those enterprises or small enterprises that rely on quantitative expansion to win. Xu Qiang, a researcher at the Transnational Business Research Department of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview that a 2% appreciation of the RMB will have some impact on foreign trade, but it has little impact and will not have any substantial impact. 2% belongs to moderate growth, which has very limited impact on the economy and will not affect enterprises in related industries. "RMB appreciation has been said for a long time, which has become an open message. It is precisely because of expectations that rational business entities are prepared for the appreciation of the people in the future and have made corresponding strategic adjustments, even if there are losses. " Jin Bosheng, director of the Foreign Investment Research Department of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, thinks so. Jin Bosheng said that a 2% appreciation is in line with the "controllable" principle of China's exchange rate reform, which also shows that the government is responsible for the market. At least for now, the 2% appreciation has not brought much impact to China's economy. "A market without any fluctuation is not conducive to the development of enterprises. Therefore, floating exchange rate can make many China enterprises get exercise. " Enterprises in China should learn to grow in the competition and learn to swim in the sea of market economy. He believes that, in fact, enterprises in China have become accustomed to living and working in peace and contentment, and they begin to appear unsuitable when there are fluctuations, which requires the reform of the exchange rate mechanism. In the long run, it is conducive to improving the trade structure. In the short term, RMB appreciation seems to have "disadvantages", but in the long run, from a big perspective, the benefits brought by a small appreciation are inevitable. Li, vice president of the International Trade and Economic Cooperation Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said in an interview with China Economic Times that the impact of RMB appreciation on foreign trade is limited and enterprises still have strong digestion ability. Theoretically speaking, RMB appreciation will definitely have some impact on exports, but in practice, the impact will not be too great, because the trend of RMB appreciation will play a role in the adjustment of foreign trade export structure. The appreciation of RMB can realize the resource allocation of survival of the fittest to a certain extent. Some small and medium-sized enterprises with thin profits are greatly affected, and some competitive product manufacturers can bear the impact of rising costs brought about by appreciation. This will bring opportunities for China to rectify foreign trade export enterprises and improve the trade structure. "Now everyone is doing foreign trade. Irregular and inappropriate internal friction reduces the external competitiveness of China enterprises, allowing importing countries and importers to reap profits. " The country's choice to appreciate at this time has far-reaching considerations. July and August are just the off-season for garment foreign trade enterprises to ship. At this time, appreciation can minimize the losses of textile foreign trade enterprises. Wei Jianguo, Vice Minister of Commerce, recently pointed out that in order to realize the leap from a big trading country to a powerful trading country, it is necessary to speed up the transformation of foreign trade growth mode. The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate just provides this opportunity for export-oriented enterprises. At present, although China's foreign trade accounts for a large share, the profits earned from trade are very meager. This economic growth model is no longer suitable for the development of an economic power like China. After more than 20 years of reform and opening-up, improving economic quality is far more important than economic quantity in China. Xu Qiang also believes that appreciation is obviously a better choice than trade sanctions. Judging from the textile disputes between China and Europe and the United States in the first half of this year, although the export volume of China has increased greatly after the quota was abolished, the profits in the same period have not increased accordingly. It has provided the United States with high quality and low price products, and it has also been questioned and sanctioned. The price war of domestic enterprises hurt themselves. The appreciation of RMB provides opportunities for domestic enterprises to raise the export price of their products. Some export enterprises have also said that although the impact of RMB appreciation on them is mostly negative in the short term, in the long run, the floating exchange rate is a good opportunity for enterprises to adjust their product structure and upgrade their industrial level. When talking about how enterprises respond to changes in the RMB exchange rate, Jin Bosheng said that enterprises can't just look at the present to enhance their own strength. It is important to invest a lot in research and development, improve technology and lay a foundation for the long-term development of enterprises in the future. Enterprises should also learn to use financial hedging to avoid exchange rate risks. While learning to avoid the risk of exchange rate fluctuations, we should adjust the industrial structure and turn to producing high value-added products in order to gain international competitiveness. With the change of exchange rate, enterprises must adjust their industrial strategies. The so-called entrepreneurs' pursuit of profit maximization all have the consciousness of this adjustment. Rmb appreciation: moving forward under the burden of foreign trade.

The continued appreciation of RMB is a foregone conclusion.

Since the exchange rate reform, the RMB has been rising all the way, and now it has appreciated by more than 3.78%. On February 29th, 2006, the central parity of RMB exchange rate in the inter-bank foreign exchange market was: 1 USD to RMB 7.8087, which broke through the integer mark of 7.8 1 and reached a new high since the foreign exchange reform.

Undoubtedly, the continuous appreciation of RMB has brought great influence to all walks of life in China, the most direct of which is foreign trade. Since the reform of foreign exchange management system from 65438 to 0994, especially after China's entry into WTO, the government's intervention in RMB has been reduced, the expectation of RMB appreciation has been predicted by the industry, and many enterprises have made corresponding preparations, but even so, the impact of RMB's continuous appreciation on foreign trade enterprises is still great. Theoretically speaking, currency appreciation does not actually affect the value of import and export commodities, but weakens their competitiveness in the international market by changing their relative prices in international trade. RMB appreciation of 3.78% is equivalent to an increase of 3.78% in product cost and a decrease of 3.78% in export competitiveness. After the appreciation of a country's currency, the foreign currency price of export commodities rises, the foreign demand for its export commodities drops, and the export scale is limited. At present, China's export products are mainly primary products and labor-intensive processing products, while high-tech and high value-added products are few. In particular, foreign-funded enterprises mainly processing or feeding materials are at the lowest end of the global industrial chain, with low profit margins and insufficient value-added capabilities. The purpose of foreign-funded enterprises to invest and set up factories in China is mainly to value China's rich human resources and low prices. After the appreciation of RMB, it will undoubtedly offset the cost advantage brought by human capital, and China's product exports will drop significantly. The person in charge of a holiday lighting enterprise that produces export lighting is worried that the company has received an order of 9 million US dollars this year and has completed an order of 6,543.8+0,000 US dollars. If you buy $3 million in forward settlement in June, the order of $5 million will lose 3.78% and the loss will be $6.5438+0.89 million. The export industries that have been hit by RMB appreciation have been hit to different degrees. Industries that enjoy low-interest export loans, export tax rebates, and even export subsidies for domestic sales are less affected than those that do not receive such preferential treatment. Most people who enjoy preferential treatment are uncompetitive industries. Relevant industries or local governments strive to maintain production in order to win over subsidy income. These uncompetitive industries can only survive by subsidies. At the same time, because many China manufacturers export products with low added value and low technology content, these export products cause pollution in the production process. Although the government has formulated laws and regulations to prevent and control pollution, those who do not abide by the law have not invested in pollution prevention and control as required, but have pushed pollution to the society. Therefore, the production cost is relatively low, and the products of these enterprises can still be exported after the appreciation of the RMB. On the other hand, law-abiding manufacturers are not as competitive as the former because they bear the treatment cost of pollution prevention and control. After the sharp appreciation of the RMB, they were unable to export and forced to close down, resulting in the unfair phenomenon that law-abiding people were eliminated and law-breakers continued to survive. This is undoubtedly unfavorable to law-abiding foreign trade enterprises. On the import side, after the sharp appreciation of RMB, imports increased, which had an impact on local industries. However, industries protected by the government and industries not protected by the government have been affected to varying degrees. Industries whose imports are controlled, that is, industries protected by the government, will not increase their imports because of the appreciation of the renminbi under the control of the government. So this kind of industry has not been affected. Industries protected by high tariffs are relatively competitive and have limited influence because of high tariffs. Lack of import control and high tariff protection have the greatest impact on local industries. Due to the large increase in imports and the appreciation of RMB, the prices of imported goods are relatively low, and local similar industries cannot compete with them. After the sharp appreciation of RMB, local inefficient industries rely on policy protection, and most of them continue to survive, with little or no impact; Efficient industries, because of lack of protection, were hit hard and eliminated. That is to say, bad money drives out good money, the industrial structure is reversed, the overall industrial efficiency is relatively reduced, and unemployment is increasing, which is not conducive to the long-term sustainable development of these local economies, an economic expert explained with anxiety. After the appreciation of RMB, some foreign trade enterprises can't bear this risk. The insiders believe that the fundamental reason is that its products are at a disadvantage in globalization because of their low technical content and low added value. Industrial upgrading is difficult, and it is impossible to win in the fierce global competition. Therefore, the appreciation of RMB once again sounded the alarm for the adjustment of industrial structure of foreign trade enterprises. Indeed, the development of China's foreign trade is facing the challenge from a big country to a powerful one. In fact, the most important thing is the continuous upgrading of China's entire production technology level and industrial structure, which determines the transformation process of China's trade. Among Asian countries, South Korea and Japan experienced a difficult period of currency appreciation. In particular, the yen appreciated by 45% during the period of 1985- 1986, which dealt a heavy blow to the export-oriented Japanese economy. During this period, Japan's economic growth rate dropped from 4.9% to 2.5%. However, through the transformation of industrial structure, Japan gradually stepped out of the shadow of the appreciation of its currency in a few years. According to the investment survey of the Bank of Japan, the shrinking export industry has made a large part of domestic funds invested in high-tech and high value-added industries. Computer, communication technology, electronic products and other manufacturing industries not only turned from export market to domestic market, but also turned from manufacturing industry to non-manufacturing industry, thus expanding the tertiary industry. From Japan's development experience, we can see that currency appreciation has duality, and the key lies in how to turn unfavorable factors into favorable ones. In fact, the appreciation of RMB has also provided favorable factors for the adjustment and upgrading of China's industrial structure. "To achieve industrial upgrading is to achieve a technology-intensive industrial structure as soon as possible. Only in this way can we narrow the gap between China and developed countries and contribute to the healthy development of foreign trade. " Industry experts also reminded me. In any case, the continued appreciation of RMB is a foregone conclusion. Turning pressure into motivation and achieving a healthier development of foreign trade is the current major plan. Under the background of RMB appreciation expectation, enterprises should raise their risk awareness and take corresponding measures. For example, in Zhejiang, in order to avoid the unpredictable factors that will lead to the decrease of income once the RMB appreciates, some enterprises tend to choose to cooperate with export credit insurance companies to export forward foreign exchange income. After paying a certain amount of bank interest and fees, the enterprise will lock in the future RMB income and let the insurance company bear the trade losses caused by RMB appreciation. According to Zhang Qingfeng, deputy general manager of Zhejiang Huatian Group, this practice is quite common in Shaoxing textile export enterprises. Similarly, Zhu, director of the international business department of Shanshan Group, also revealed that when they signed export contracts with foreign investors, although they did not directly raise the export unit price of products because of the appreciation of the RMB, they usually negotiated with each other privately by virtue of long-established credit relations. Once RMB appreciation causes losses to enterprises, foreign investors should consider giving certain economic compensation. "At present, RMB appreciation has become an important consideration in signing foreign trade contracts," he said helplessly. Dr. Huang, from School of Economics, Zhejiang University, believes that under the background of increasingly fierce competition among export enterprises, foreign businessmen are willing to accept the demand of China enterprises to increase the export unit price of their products, which shows that foreign businessmen have higher expectations for the appreciation and extent of RMB. "The price increase of enterprises is around 4%, which is within the expected range of foreign investors' appreciation of the RMB." In addition, China's textile exports to Europe and the United States will be significantly reduced due to the "special protection" of China's textiles from Europe and the United States, which will generally promote the price increase of China's textiles in overseas markets, which may be one of the reasons why foreign businessmen are willing to accept the price increase requirements of China textile enterprises. As for the government, industry experts suggest that governments at all levels should comprehensively use various economic levers to regulate various foreign trade, supplemented by various economic policies within the scope permitted by WTO rules, such as using various economic levers such as planning, taxation, price, finance, credit and interest rate. Optimize the structure of import and export commodities by economic, legal and administrative means. For example, through tariff policy and quota policy, more protection and encouragement should be given to the export of products that should be promoted, while stricter management and restrictions should be imposed on the import of products (non-necessities) that should be suppressed. In this regard, it is suggested that the relevant policies of WTO should be used to give export subsidies or increase export tax rebates to related products within the scope permitted by the WTO agreement, so as to improve the international competitiveness of these products and make up for the decrease in foreign trade income brought about by the appreciation of RMB. So as to optimize the import and export structure of products, improve the trade balance and reduce the inflation effect caused by exchange rate changes. At the same time, due to the appreciation of RMB, the same amount of investment expressed in RMB can be converted into more foreign currencies, which relatively reduces the investment cost and is conducive to domestic enterprises to invest overseas and develop transnational operations. In the early 1980s, the US dollar was strong, and in the late 1980s and 1990s, the Japanese yen appreciated sharply, all of which adopted the strategy of overseas capital expansion. In the era of globalization, a large number of enterprises have gone abroad to realize transnational operation, which fully embodies the competitiveness of a country. China should learn from the successful experience of the United States and Japan, encourage enterprises to avoid risks and reduce production costs by expanding overseas production scale, and at the same time, increase the efficiency of capital use and promote the development of domestic industries while expanding domestic demand. However, as the most populous developing country in the world, it is quite dangerous for China to rely solely on the export-oriented strategy, and it is extremely vulnerable to external shocks, thus making the sustained economic development unsustainable or even reversed, which provides evidence for the East Asian economic crisis. Dependence on foreign countries is an index to measure the extent to which a country's economy is affected by external economy. This index has a moderate range in different countries and different stages of economic development, and the bigger the better. From the perspective of foreign trade, the import and export of foreign-funded enterprises have accounted for more than half of China's total foreign trade, and the export is mainly processing trade. Therefore, processing trade has become the main driving force for the rapid growth of China's exports. Therefore, adjust the foreign investment policy appropriately and reduce dependence on foreign investment. Of course, besides the exchange rate may affect China's foreign trade, many other factors also pose a serious potential threat to the development of foreign trade, which may require more attention, and the trade community is worried about it. For example, in the face of an increasingly open market, the competitiveness of imported products has gradually increased. After foreign products enter the China market on equal terms of trade, China products will face competitive disadvantages in terms of price, variety, quality and marketing methods. These products are easily restricted and obstructed by quality standards, technical barriers to trade, intellectual property rights and anti-dumping in developed countries, resulting in various disputes, which may involve quantity restrictions, trade policies, customs clearance procedures and procedures, and phytosanitary standards. As far as technical barriers to trade are concerned, the export trade of China products has been seriously affected. Therefore, we must strengthen the adjustment of China's industrial structure, determine the advantageous industries, strive to improve the added value of products, refer to the requirements of technical barriers quality standards, understand the latest technical standards of product importing countries, improve the technical level of products, formulate new technical standards and rules, and strive to be in line with international standards; At the same time, it is necessary to effectively improve product quality, strengthen quality and safety management, and explore ways conducive to the sustainable development of various industries.