The focus of financial center construction has shifted to Shanghai. The history of financial development since the founding of New China is, to a great extent, a tale of two cities between Beijing and Shanghai. Now, this balance is gradually tilting towards Shanghai.

First, from the perspective of urban positioning, the first section of the first chapter of Beijing Urban Master Plan (20 16-2035) makes it clear that Beijing's urban positioning is a national political center, a cultural center, an international exchange center and a scientific and technological innovation center, without mentioning "developing the capital economy"; Shanghai is positioned as an international economic center, an international financial center, an international trade center, an international shipping center and a scientific and technological innovation center in the overall planning, with the goal of building Shanghai into an "outstanding global city and a socialist modern international metropolis", which seems to be tantamount to announcing the intention of handing over the financial center to Shanghai. Second, from the perspective of finance itself, risks are accompanied, and financial centers are also risk centers in a certain sense. As the capital, Beijing is obviously not as conducive to the development of the financial industry as Shanghai. In fact, political centers and financial centers in many countries are separated, such as Washington and new york in the United States, Ottawa and Toronto in Canada, Berlin and Frankfurt in Germany. This shows that financial functions are not necessary for the capital. Nowadays, Beijing is fading its economic color, strengthening the functions of the capital, deconstructing non-capital functions, moving out of the ecology of manufacturing, retail, wholesale, transportation and warehousing, and deconstructing some central enterprises and financial institutions. Third, Shanghai has returned to the strategic commanding heights from the strategic balance point. China is moving from an economic power to an economic power, and the standard for becoming an economic power is to have an international financial center, while Shanghai has been shouldering the national strategic task, and often the whole country has not moved, with Shanghai taking the lead. In the new round of reform and opening-up, Shanghai has been given a higher status and will become the "interface" for China to further contact and integrate into the world. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the allocation function of global financial resources. After all, finance is one of the important forces that dominate the world pattern. However, the positioning of Beijing as a non-financial center is not contrary to the "National Financial Management Center" in essence. It is the center of national financial decision-making and the gathering place of regulatory agencies, and there are 10 national financial industry associations and organizations. Therefore, in the future, Beijing will continue to play the role of "manager" and "service provider" in the national financial development system, strengthen the supervision function, further support financial opening, and form a pattern of "market in Shanghai, supervision in Beijing". In addition to the policy inclination, building Shanghai into an international financial center is also a choice for business and market. According to the 25th Global Finance (GFCI) published by the British think tank Z/Yen Group in March this year, Niulun Port ranks among the top three global financial centers, Shanghai ranks fifth in the world and Beijing ranks ninth. Moreover, the gap between Shanghai and London, Hong Kong and Singapore has narrowed to 17, 13 and 2 respectively. In the 26th Global Financial Center Index released in September, new york, London, Hongkong, Singapore and Shanghai are still in the top five respectively, and their rankings have not changed. Moreover, the gap between Shanghai and London, Hong Kong and Singapore has further narrowed to 12, 10 and 1 0, only one step ahead of Singapore. China is a dual financial center: Shanghai and Hongkong. At present, there is only one international financial center in China-Hongkong, and Shanghai is trying to catch up. Based on the current financial situation and development foundation, China is likely to become a dual financial center. Specifically, Shanghai and Hong Kong have their own regional advantages in financial development. One is the best city in the whole Far East, and the other is a prosperous place that has avoided a hundred years of war. One is backed by the integration hinterland of the Yangtze River Delta, and the other is backed by Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. Shanghai faces the East China Sea in the east and the Yangtze River in the north. As early as the 1930 s, Shanghai bankers rose and foreign banks landed on the beach. Shanghai has not only become the most dazzling national financial center, but also once became the rising financial center of the Far East in Ran Ran. During the period of1160,000, the Shanghai gold market traded in the whole year, surpassing Paris at that time. Today, 40 years after the reform and opening up, Shanghai has gathered various financial factor markets such as stocks, bonds, currency, foreign exchange, gold, futures, bills, insurance, etc., and has the basic conditions for gathering high-energy headquarters, strategic global platform and large-scale mobility. In 20 18, the total turnover of Shanghai financial market was 1645.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.2%, and 85% of the national direct financing came from Shanghai financial market. The total number of licensed financial institutions in Shanghai reached 1605, of which foreign financial institutions accounted for 30%; There are more than 360,000 financial employees in Shanghai, accounting for 3% of the total number of employed people in the city. Moreover, with the integration of the Yangtze River Delta and the formation of Shanghai metropolitan area, the vast hinterland economy scale will constitute a solid support for Shanghai's financial going out. Needless to say, Hong Kong has changed from a small fishing village to an important trading port in the Far East through its port opening, and it has brought about the development of the financial industry based on the transportation and trade hub. Especially when the war is raging in the mainland and the political situation is turbulent, a large amount of funds have poured into Hong Kong, and the financial industry has flourished. Then, when the new China was completely blocked, it served as a window and bridge for China's foreign exchanges, thus staged a glorious century-long financial history of Hong Kong. With its free and open market, perfect legal system, international business environment, perfect financial system and mature professional financial talents, Hong Kong has become the third largest financial center in the world, with the financial industry accounting for about 18% of GDP, the third largest gold market, the fourth largest foreign exchange market and the largest offshore RMB market in the world, with the largest offshore RMB fund pool (up to 600 billion RMB). Today, the construction of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area provides a backup base and new development space for Hong Kong finance. In the past five months or so, the extremely violent illegal incidents in Hong Kong have dealt a heavy blow to Hong Kong's retail, catering, tourism and other industries, seriously damaged Hong Kong's international image and business environment, and affected Hong Kong's status as an international financial center. However, Hong Kong is still competitive in the world, and its position as an international financial center will not be easily shaken. Especially on June 26th, 165438+ Ali topped the Hong Kong stock market with a market value of 4 trillion. Five years later, he finally "went home" and continued to be in the frontier of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In the context of trade uncertainty, the demonstration effect of Ali's return to Hong Kong stocks is expected to drive more US stocks to return, which will undoubtedly add an "anchor" to Hong Kong's status as a financial center. However, although Shanghai and Hong Kong are similar in geography and chance, they are at completely different stages. One is a rising star, and the other is to develop to the highest stage, and even the problems are exposed. One is to actively climb up, and the other is to be afraid of being "marginalized". In terms of economic aggregate, Hong Kong ranks first in China with a GDP of 19971344.5 billion yuan, nearly four times that of Shanghai. In 2009, Shanghai's GDP surpassed that of Hong Kong, and in 20 18, Shenzhen's GDP(2.42 trillion RMB) also surpassed that of Hong Kong for the first time. Judging from the balance of local and foreign currency deposits of financial institutions, by the end of 20 18, Shanghai's "total capital" (12. 1 trillion RMB) has surpassed Hong Kong, equivalent to "Shenzhen (7.25 trillion RMB)+Hangzhou (about 4 trillion RMB). In addition, the financial turmoil has exposed many internal problems in Hong Kong: a single economic structure dominated by financial and professional services, limited local employment and entrepreneurial opportunities, little room for upward mobility of young people, and a shortage of housing and land. These problems can no longer be solved by Hong Kong's internal system alone. Although the weight of Hong Kong is declining, in view of its greater freedom and more accommodation space, Shanghai and Hong Kong are not substitutes in the short term, but form complementary advantages, showing the pattern of competition and cooperation among China financial centers. China's finance will present a dual structure. Both Shanghai and Hongkong undertake the design of China's dual structure: one focuses on domestic (focusing on cooperation and serving the real economy) and the other focuses on overseas (participating in international competition and international rule-making); One is a "stable disk" and the other is a "fluctuating disk"; One is controllable and the other is market-oriented; An onshore market and an offshore market can achieve the effect of advancing, attacking and retreating. This dual structure can not only promote the financial and monetary reform in China mainland by virtue of Hong Kong's status as an international financial center; You can also use the separation of port and land to play the role of firewall and buffer zone to prevent the reform from impacting the overall financial stability of China once it gets out of control; We can also learn from the ups and downs of RMB internationalization in Hong Kong and avoid and adjust it in Shanghai. What's more, if we don't maintain Hong Kong's status, we can't pass the test politically. From this point of view, Shanghai and Hong Kong are far more complementary than competitive in the financial field. In the future, the relationship between Shanghai and Hong Kong will be similar to that between new york and London, namely, the onshore and offshore markets of a world currency. However, when China's finance truly forms a dual-center pattern of Shanghai and Hong Kong, the RMB is gradually internationalized, and the US dollar cannot be an anchor of stability due to internal tears, the US dollar may be separated from the US dollar and tend to be linked to the RMB.