19, Gabriel boric acid was elected president of Chile. He advocated strengthening state supervision, increasing the royalties of mining enterprises, opposing the privatization of mineral resources and promoting the establishment of state-owned lithium companies. On Monday (20th), the lithium battery plate of US stocks was lower.
In the eyes of foreign media, Boric's ruling measures in mining will inevitably have an impact on China enterprises.
Screenshot of foreign media reports
Chile's left-wing president was elected, and the global lithium price regenerated a new variable?
Lithium is an indispensable material in electric vehicle industry.
Cochilco, a Chilean mining organization, reported that the electric vehicle industry will dominate the lithium demand in the next decade. By 2030, lithium will account for 79% of the metal consumption of ultra-light batteries, an increase of one third compared with 20 19 years. Cochilco said that due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the demand for lithium in electric vehicles will weaken in 2020, which is estimated to be about 75,000 tons, but it will soar to 6,543,800+0.4 million tons by 2030. At the same time, the demand for consumer goods such as mobile phones will reach 377,000 tons by 2030, and it is expected to be 242,000 tons in 2020.
The report predicts that Australia and Chile will maintain their leading position in production with smaller profit margins.
According to the Ministry of Commerce, lithium resources in the global market mainly come from six countries: Australia, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina, China and the United States. Chile's reserves are more than 7.5 million tons, accounting for 52% of the world's total (140,000 tons), mainly from Salar de Atacama in the second region, accounting for 8 1% of the national reserves.
The right to mine lithium belongs to the Chilean government. Lithium ore is a strategic resource in Chile, and its exploitation is controlled by quota. Chile is one of the largest producers of lithium carbonate in the world, and lithium ranks behind copper, molybdenum and iron in Chile's mineral exports. Mainly exported to South Korea, China and Japan, accounting for 73% of the total.
Chile is the website of the Inter-American Department of Commerce.
65438+February 19 Local time, boric acid, the candidate of the Chilean left-wing alliance "Apruebo Dignidad", defeated Jose Antonio Caster, the candidate of the right-wing party alliance "Christian Social Front" and was elected as the new president of Chile. According to media reports from Reuters, AFP and The Guardian, boric acid clearly advocates strengthening state supervision, increasing royalties of mining enterprises, opposing the privatization of mineral resources, and promoting the establishment of state-owned lithium companies. In public opinion, the global lithium price may regenerate new variables.
Screenshot of announcement of strong demand in lithium consumer market
Boric acid was elected, and the market was in an uproar: China's new energy vehicle development plan will also be disrupted?
Chile's stock market and foreign exchange prices fell on Monday due to concerns about possible radical economic policies. Chile's benchmark stock index closed down 6.2%, after falling 7.5%. The yield of Chilean dollar-denominated bonds due in 2050 rose by 8 basis points to 3.3%. The Morgan Stanley Capital International Chile stock index fell 10.45%, the biggest one-day drop since mid-May.
Shares of mining companies operating in Chile fell. On Monday, Lundin Mining Corp fell nearly 65,438+07% on the Toronto Stock Exchange, while Antofagasta, a British mining company, fell more than 5% on the London stock market. Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile SA, the world's second largest lithium producer, led the decline of IPSA, Chile's main stock index, by 14%, the biggest decline since the epidemic.
Wind screenshot
Market sentiment is also transmitted to domestic lithium prices. According to the data of Shanghai Nonferrous Metals Network, on the 20th, metallic lithium rose by 20,000 yuan/ton to1175,000 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of more than 7%. Battery-grade lithium carbonate rose by 3,500 yuan/ton to 24 1.500 yuan/ton, with a monthly increase of more than 18%, constantly refreshing the statistical record (20 17 till now).
At present, the lithium industry in Chile is dominated by the Chilean Mining and Chemical Industry Company (SQM) and Albemarle.
Among them, SQM has a deep relationship with enterprises in China.
Screenshot of SQM website
Chile's mining and chemical industry was established in 1968, engaged in the production and sales of fertilizers, chemical products, iodine and lithium. Total assets are $6543.8+$36 million. The profit in 20 17 was USD 428 million, up 54% year-on-year. 197 1 year, SQM company was completely nationalized, but it was privatized after Pinochet's coup.
In 20 18, Tianqi Lithium Industry from China spent $4.066 billion to acquire 23.77% equity of SQM. After the transaction, Tianqi Lithium Industry held 25.86% shares in Class A shares and Class B shares, becoming its second largest shareholder. This sky-high acquisition made Tianqi Lithium's debt ratio soar from 40.39% in 20 17 to 80.88% in 20 19. However, after the rise of the global new energy automobile industry chain, Tianqi Lithium also took the lead.
Announcement screenshot
The advent of boric acid has made the outside world full of speculation about Tianqi lithium industry and even the entire lithium market.
The Financial Times believes that Boric's opposition to the mining plan that "destroys" the environment led to the decline of SQM's share price. Isabella Simonato, an analyst at Bank of America, released a research report, downgrading Chile's mining and chemical industry (SQM). The United States) was lowered from "neutral" to "underperforming the market", and the target price was lowered from $67 to $50. Simonato believes that although Boric has not formally proposed to raise taxes and royalties for the time being, these policies pose potential downside risks to Chile's mining and chemical industries.
Announcement screenshot
In addition to the lithium resource industry, the entire new energy vehicle industry chain is also facing the risk of rising costs. Due to the rapid growth of global sales of new energy vehicles, the prices of lithium, nickel, copper and other metal resources needed for lithium batteries soared this year, which seriously affected the profit margins of lithium battery manufacturers such as Contemporary Ampere Technology Co., Ltd.. If the cost continues to rise in the future, it may lead to an increase in the prices of lithium batteries and new energy vehicles, and the withdrawal of new energy subsidies is likely to put greater pressure on consumer demand.
Guotai Junan Securities said that this election will not affect the lithium supply of planned production capacity in the short to medium term; In the long run, unexploited resource projects may be postponed, limiting the long-term global supply and release of lithium resources.
Longzhong Information analysts believe that during Boric's administration, the most pessimistic situation was that the government withdrew the exploration license of Chilean mining and chemical industry (SQM) in advance, but this was a very extreme situation. In the short and medium term, the local planned lithium supply will not have an impact, and the production capacity invested in the early stage will gradually reach production. In the long run, new projects may be delayed in the future, which will limit the long-term global supply and release of lithium resources.
"Despite Boric's efforts to emphasize that his economic model will not be radical, it is clear that market-friendly policies may have become a thing of the past." Win Thin, head of global foreign exchange strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman, said, "The market hates uncertainty, and Chile provides uncertainty for the next few years."
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