20 12 on may 3rd, the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of ASEAN, China, Japan and Korea (10+3) was held in Manila, Philippines. Heads of finance ministries and central banks/monetary authorities from 13 countries attended the meeting, which was the first meeting after the ASEAN-China, Japan and South Korea finance ministers' meeting was expanded to ASEAN-China, Japan and South Korea finance ministers' meeting. The meeting exchanged views on the global and regional economic and financial situation and the response measures of various countries, and reached an understanding on strengthening the multilateral crisis response capability of Chiang Mai Initiative. The parties agreed to double the size of the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization Fund to US$ 240 billion, and their share of investment remained unchanged; The decoupling ratio from the IMF loan plan has been increased from 20% to 30%, and the use period of bailout funds has been extended. The meeting decided to name the existing crisis resolution mechanism the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateral Stability Fund. The meeting agreed to establish a new regional crisis prevention function and named it the Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateral Preventive Lending Tool. The abundant foreign exchange reserves of Asian countries make it possible to implement the action plan. The huge foreign exchange reserves have brought severe challenges to the monetary policies of Asian countries to stabilize their domestic macro-economy. The huge foreign exchange reserves actually flow back to the American market through various channels. The action plan allows countries to designate a part of their foreign exchange reserves, which provides an appropriate form for the management of foreign exchange reserves.
More importantly, since the Chiang Mai Initiative was officially launched in 2000, no member country has started the swap fund. Even in the current financial crisis, South Korea, which was severely hit by the crisis, sought to sign a new bilateral rescue agreement with China by avoiding the existing Chiang Mai Initiative. This shows that Chiang Mai Initiative is the only quasi-institutionalized financial cooperation mechanism in Asia, and its existence is more symbolic. Insufficient fund quota, lack of supervision entity and 80% linkage arrangement with the International Monetary Fund have all become obstacles to the effective implementation of the Chiang Mai Initiative. This is also an important reason why the finance ministers of ASEAN +3 countries have reached a new understanding of the above three important links in promoting the multilateralization of Chiang Mai Initiative in the critical period. The launch of the action plan prepares for the institutionalization of the Chiang Mai Initiative multilateral mechanism, and in the medium and long term, it also builds a platform for higher-level policy coordination and monetary cooperation. However, whether the Action Plan can effectively guarantee regional financial stability depends on the following key factors. First, is the idea of establishing a monitoring entity really implemented? Monitoring mechanism is an important part of implementing financial stability plan. Without a permanent entity composed of experts independent of other countries, Chiang Mai Initiative member countries will not be able to give early warning of the severity of financial shocks and the possibility of financial crisis, put the aid plan into practice, or even provide policy suggestions to recipient countries to deal with the crisis. Even if the existing rescue fund is abundant, due to the lack of supervision entities, member States can not effectively implement the rescue plan. Although the Action Plan has reached an understanding on the establishment of this entity, it still needs greater efforts from Member States to achieve it.
Second, whether it is possible to establish loan conditions in line with the economic status and characteristics of member countries under the multilateral Chiang Mai Initiative and avoid possible moral hazard in the use of funds. This is the core step to reduce the Chiang Mai Initiative's high dependence on the International Monetary Fund, and it is also the institutional guarantee for the rights and interests of major investors, including China and Japan.
Third, can countries' contributions to the Fund be reflected in the multilateral decision-making mechanism initiated by the Fund? Fund * * * and start-up mechanism are important parts of implementing Chiang Mai Initiative multilateralization, and the determination of fund start-up voting rights has always been a sensitive issue. The determination of voting rights is very important for the effective implementation of Chiang Mai Initiative.
Fourth, whether the use of local currency can be cultivated under the multilateral framework. The dominant position of the US dollar in the global financial system has become one of the reasons for this financial crisis. For Asian countries, reducing their dependence on the US dollar and increasing the use of regional currencies in foreign exchange reserves, trade and investment will help reduce exchange rate risks. As far as the next follow-up measures of the Action Plan are concerned, it is necessary to increase the proportion of RMB and other local currencies in the use of reserve funds, change the current situation that exchange funds are still mainly paid in US dollars, and promote the use of local currencies through the implementation of Chiang Mai Initiative, which is the fundamental guarantee for financial stability in Asia.
Fifth, can we handle the relationship with the International Monetary Fund? Due to the lack of effective economic supervision of Chiang Mai Initiative, the start of the rescue fund has to be linked to the loan conditions of the International Monetary Fund in a certain proportion. However, with the continuous promotion of Chiang Mai Initiative, the nature of its regional monetary fund is becoming more and more obvious, and the proportion linked to the IMF will continue to decrease. The action plan sends this clear signal. With the Chiang Mai Initiative, Asia's dependence on the IMF for crisis relief will be reduced accordingly. How to coordinate the relationship with existing funds is the key to the smooth development of Asian regional monetary funds.
Sixth, how to play the role of China. The financial crisis has made the world pay more attention to China's role in the international financial system, and the voice of RMB internationalization is growing. At the same time, China's neighboring countries have higher hopes for China's "stabilizer" role in coping with the financial crisis. China actually plays a dual role in playing the role of financial stabilizer: the largest developing country in the global system; A big country that plays a stabilizing role in the Asian region. From the perspective of monetary integration, this global role and regional role can develop in parallel at a certain stage. But at a certain stage, for a sovereign country, a high degree of regional monetary integration needs to give up monetary sovereignty, which forms a trade-off relationship with the internationalization of sovereign currency. At present, Chinese mainland has signed bilateral rescue swap agreements with South Korea, Malaysia and Hong Kong respectively. At the same time, the multilateral mechanism of Chiang Mai Initiative under the framework of ASEAN +3 has further increased capital. The former is considered as an opportunity to promote the internationalization of RMB, while the latter provides a platform for further regional monetary cooperation. How to promote RMB internationalization through regional monetary cooperation is a strategic issue facing China.