Since 2005, the world economy has slowed down the rapid growth in 2004 and maintained steady growth, but the growth rate has slowed down. The process of multipolarization and globalization has further developed, and the imbalance of the world economic structure is prominent. International economic frictions, represented by trade frictions, are on the rise, and energy issues have added new uncertainties to the sustainable development of the world economy.

1. The global economy is growing steadily and the international macroeconomic environment is basically stable. In 2004, the world economy fully recovered and achieved the fastest growth in the past 30 years. According to the statistics of the International Monetary Fund (1MF), in 2004, the average economic growth rate of developed countries reached 3.4%, and that of emerging market countries and developing countries reached 7.2%, among which the average economic growth rate of CIS countries and Asian countries reached 8.2%. Since the beginning of this year, the global economy has maintained a good growth momentum, but the growth rate has slowed down. The IMF predicts that the global economic growth rate will drop from 5. 1% last year to 4.3%, and will rise to 4.4% next year. Among them, the average economic growth rate of developed countries and developing countries will drop to 2.6% and 6.3% respectively this year, and will rise to 3% in developed countries and further drop to 6% in developing countries next year.

2. International trade has maintained rapid growth, but trade frictions have increased and trade protectionism has further developed. According to the statistics of the United Nations Trade and Development Report 2005, the growth rate of global trade import and export in 2004 was 13%, which was about 6 percentage points higher than that in 2003. The IMF predicts that the growth rate of global trade will slow down to 7.6% next year. The growth rate of foreign trade in emerging markets and developing countries will continue to grow at a high speed, with the growth rate above 9.7% this year and next. The rapid growth of international trade has led to further prominent internal contradictions in international economic relations and increasing trade frictions. The countries concerned have strengthened the protection of their own markets, introduced various trade protection measures, and even appeared the signs of "economic nationalism".

Third, there have been new structural changes in international capital flows, and developed countries such as the United States and Japan have once again become major international capital importers. According to the statistics of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the foreign direct investment (FDl) of its member countries reached US$ 667.8 billion in 2004, an increase of US$ 75 billion over the previous year, and it is expected to increase by more than/kloc-0.5% this year, exceeding US$ 760 billion. In 2004, FDI attracted by developing countries reached $654.38+0.52 billion, and it is expected to rise to $654.38+0.65 billion this year. The United States still dominates international capital flows. In 2004, American foreign investment was $229.3 billion, accounting for about 1/3 of the global total. The inflow of FDI reached US$ 95.9 billion, making it the largest investor in the world and attracting foreign investment. At the same time, the recovery of Japan's economy has also enhanced investors' confidence, and investment in Japan has also rebounded accordingly. In 2004, Japan attracted 845.6 billion yen of foreign direct investment. China and other emerging market countries still play an important role in the international capital market. According to OECD statistics, in 2004, the direct investment of developed countries in China, Brazil, Russia and India reached $89.2 billion, accounting for 57% of their investment outside the OECD. The investment fields of major investors have changed, mainly turning to finance, public utilities and telecommunications industries, and international capital flows have entered a new round of structural adjustment.

The rise of oil price has become an important factor affecting the international economy, but global inflation is unlikely in the short term. High oil price has become the main uncertain factor in the current international economy. Since the beginning of this year, high oil prices have pushed up the prices of oil-related products, pushed up the prices of consumer goods in major countries, and brought inflation risks. In May this year, the core inflation index excluding food and energy in the United States rose by 0.5 percentage points over the same period last year, reaching 2%. According to the data released by the Bank of England, the current consumer price index in Britain has exceeded 2%. According to the statistics of the Reserve Bank of Australia, the consumer price inflation rate in Australia was 2,5% in the second quarter of this year, and it is expected to increase slightly in the third quarter. In order to curb possible inflation, the Federal Reserve has continuously raised interest rates, and the current federal funds rate has reached 4%. Central banks in other countries are also very concerned about this, but expert analysis will not trigger global inflation in the short term.

5. The imbalance of the world economic structure is more prominent. According to IMF statistics, in 2004, US GDP accounted for nearly13 of global GDP, US dollar accounted for 64% of global foreign exchange reserves, 62% of global foreign exchange transactions and 66% of global trade settlement. But in the same year, the current account deficit of the United States reached about 6176 billion dollars, accounting for about 70% of the global current account surplus; The fiscal deficit reached $4 128 billion. The IMF predicts that the US current account deficit will reach $724.5 billion this year and will rise to $749.8 billion next year. In the fiscal year of 2004-2005 (June 2004 10 to September 30, 2005), the financial situation of the United States did not improve fundamentally, and the annual fiscal deficit still reached $31900 million. This has brought systemic risks to the stability of the global financial market. At the same time, the adjustment of American economic structure will also trigger a series of changes in the international market in terms of demand, interest rate, exchange rate, capital flow and direction, which will have a great impact on international capital flow and international trade.