Qiao Liang: I don't think the interests of financial monopoly oligarchs can be absolutely understood as the interests of only a few people. Because even if these few people earn more money, causing or widening the gap between the rich and the poor, their money bags are still a strong and rich part of the United States, and at the same time they will bring more employment opportunities and wealth to the United States than when their money bags are dry, which is one of the reasons why American politicians will listen more to the oligarchs. In this sense, we can't simply understand the relationship between American politicians and oligarchs as just because these people have money to manipulate votes, so politicians must keep their words in order to be elected. Think about it, if a company like Microsoft really splits and crosses, what benefits will it have for the United States? Don't suffer?

Only Bill Gates? It is at this point that I think we should pay more attention to the complexity and subtlety of modern economic life, instead of blindly holding a critical attitude that the "strong dollar policy" reflects that the US government is only making profits for a few people. ?

Wang Xiangsui: The "strong dollar policy" should not be absolute. Now that the dollar exchange rate has fallen, American economic leaders seem to be in no hurry. In essence, there are signs of abandoning the "strong dollar policy", but abandoning this policy will not change the fact that the American economy has entered the era of "virtual capitalism". It is necessary to distinguish the government's economic policy from the basic way of life of society. ?

Wang Jian: Secondly, capitalism in the era of "virtual capitalism" is more parasitic and decadent. A virtual asset is just a piece of paper, or a recorded signal in a computer hard disk. They can't be eaten when they increase in value. Why has it become the goal pursued by major capitalist countries? This is because all major capitalist countries can exchange material products with other countries with virtual assets such as bonds, stocks, foreign exchange and real estate. All major capitalist countries have "hard currency", and governments, enterprises and residents in other countries need these "hard currency" for pricing and settlement of international trade, and as foreign exchange reserves and savings. Therefore, a considerable part of the currency issued by major capitalist countries will be held abroad, but these currencies will often not stay abroad, but mainly return to the currency issuing countries in the form of purchasing assets to earn interest, and these returned currencies will be under the capital account of the balance of payments of major capitalist countries. The higher the price of virtual assets in capitalist countries, the more foreign capital they attract. Although interest or dividends need to be paid to foreign asset holders, they are still paid in the form of money, so virtual assets are still used to exchange material products with other countries. Therefore, capitalism in the era of "virtual capitalism" is more parasitic and decadent. Major capitalist countries can occupy and exploit the material products created by other people for free only by creating monetary assets. ?

Third, in the era of "virtual capitalism", the content of imperialist hegemony has also changed. Before the era of "virtual capitalism", imperialist countries competed for world hegemony mainly to monopolize the resources and markets for producing material products, and the focus of the struggle was to control the flow of international trade. In this new stage, the content of competition has shifted from material products to international capital, and the focus of competition has also shifted to controlling the flow of international capital. Because not all capitalist countries with "hard currency" can fully enjoy the benefits brought by virtual economy, but only countries with "currency hegemony" can do it. At present, only the United States has currency hegemony. According to some data, since 1996, a country in the United States has paid for imports through the inflow of international capital, consuming more than 70% of the world's surplus products or net savings every year. ? Since World War II, the dollar has achieved the status of "world currency". Up to now, the US dollar still accounts for 60% ~ 70% of the international settlement and reserve currency. However, before the era of "virtual capitalism", more precisely, before the crazy development of virtual economy since the early 1990s, it was impossible to plunder the surplus products created by people in other countries on such a large scale only by relying on the special status of the US dollar. Because during this period, the United States can only export US dollars from the current account, but not virtual assets from the capital account to foreign countries on a large scale, the average annual deficit under the current account is about 20-30 billion US dollars. The sharp expansion of the US trade deficit began in the mid-1990s. At the same time, the international capital inflow expanded sharply and the domestic asset bubble expanded. The main reason for the sharp expansion of international capital inflow is that a large number of safe-haven funds flowed out of Europe during the process of euro unification. According to relevant data, from 1996 to 2000, the United States absorbed about $23 trillion in international capital, 70% of which came from Europe. These international capital inflows from abroad are mainly attracted by the concept of "new economy" in the United States, and flow into the securities market to buy American assets, thus creating the sustained strength of the US dollar and the extraordinary prosperity of the US stock market. ?

Wang Xiangsui: In the past, the "new economy" was mainly viewed from the contribution of information technology to the real economy. Now it looks more like concept hype in the stock market, such as "spreading concept" and "biological concept", which is to attract investors to inject funds. The emergence of the euro has challenged the monopoly position of the dollar in international finance. According to the latest statistics, the proportion of US dollar and euro in international trade settlement has been 50% and 30% respectively, which is only a change in the trade field. It is estimated that the ratio of euro to dollar in the capital market will not be small. ?

Wang Jian: It was precisely because of the threat of the euro that the United States took military measures because there was no other better way at that time. Everything in the world is divided into two parts, and "virtual capitalism" is no exception. It not only brings economic prosperity and monetary hegemony benefits to the United States, but also has its inherent defects. It is in order to maintain this position of economic prosperity and monetary hegemony that the United States must maintain the one-way flow of international capital to the United States. The strong dollar and the rise in American asset prices are actually only the result of international capital flows. Once international capital flows out, the economic prosperity will come to an end, the dollar will inevitably weaken, the stock market will inevitably collapse, and the prices of other assets will plummet. The United States can no longer use virtual assets to ensure a luxurious life. At present, the import of goods in the United States is equivalent to 30% of domestic consumption, and the import of consumer goods is equivalent to 40% of domestic consumption. In 2002, the trade deficit of the United States was close to $500 billion, that is, the United States had to maintain a daily net inflow of international capital of about $6,543.8+$300 million in order to maintain the payment of import bills. Therefore, the result of losing currency hegemony is that the national consumption level of the United States will drop by 30% ~ 40%, and the damage to the American economy is equivalent to 1929 ~ 1933, or even more serious. ?

Fourth, with the change of the mode of production, the capitalist economic crisis has also taken on a new form. The capitalist economic crisis formed in this operating state is no longer a crisis of overproduction of material products, but a crisis of oversupply of virtual assets such as securities, foreign exchange and real estate, which triggered the collapse of the financial system after the asset bubble burst. This phenomenon can be clearly seen from the bursting of Japan's asset bubble in the early 1990s. The traditional capitalist economic crisis is generally characterized by periodicity, that is, there will always be recovery and prosperity after the crisis. However, since the outbreak of the financial crisis in the early 1990s, Japan has experienced 12 years, and has never been out of recession. On the contrary, it tends to deepen the crisis. At current prices, Japan's GDP has regressed to the level of the mid-1990s, and the market value of the securities market has even regressed to the level of the mid-1980s, indicating the recession caused by the virtual economic crisis. ?

From a global perspective, since the early 1990s, with the promotion of the United States, Britain and other countries, there has been a wave of financial globalization. The international financial oligarchy, surrounded by the huge monetary capital created by the virtual economy for a long time, is like a scourge in the financial markets of all countries in the world. During 10 in the 1990s, financial and monetary crises broke out one after another around the world, including 1990, 1992, 1995, Mexico, 1997 and Asia. Since April 2000, with the bursting of the Nasdaq stock market bubble in the United States as the starting point, the stock indexes of major capital markets in the United States have also plummeted, and the storm of financial crisis has begun to sweep across the United States. ?

Wang Xiangsui: Americans should be aware of this dangerous prospect and take some measures to prevent the financial bubble from bursting, right?

Wang Jian: Americans attacking Iraq is a way to attack the euro. So far, the financial system in the United States has not collapsed, mainly because the asset bubble in the United States has not completely burst, but the rise of the real estate bubble is still supporting the prosperity of the American economy. This is very similar to the situation after the bursting of the Japanese stock market bubble. After the stock market plunged in February of 1990, the funds fleeing from the stock market entered the real estate again. About two years later, the real estate bubble also burst and entered a depression that lasted for 10 years. According to statistics, since the beginning of 2000, the market value of the American stock market has evaporated by about 7 trillion US dollars, but the real estate has increased by about 3 trillion US dollars, which largely offset the impact of the bursting of the stock market bubble and made the consumption boom brought by the "wealth effect" last for some time. However, since the third quarter of 2002, housing investment has been declining continuously. In many big cities in the United States, the increase in housing rents has begun to be lower than the increase in real estate prices. In addition, on June 5438+065438+ 10, 2002, the personal consumption credit in the United States experienced negative growth for the first time, and the amount decreased in that month was as high as $2.2 billion, which indicated that the real estate bubble in the United States had come to an end, and the bursting of the real estate bubble indicated that the United States was likely to enter a long recession like Japan, and its recovery period was difficult to determine. Different from the United States, Japan is a country with high savings rate and low personal debt, while the consumption boom in the United States is almost entirely based on personal debt. In addition, even in the era of extremely inflated asset bubbles, Japan's material industry has developed well. After the bursting of the bubble, the national economy can still be supported by the growth of the material industry, while the formation of the asset bubble in the United States is accompanied by a serious decline of the material industry. Therefore, if a financial storm breaks out in the United States, its degree and subsequent impact may be much more tragic than that in Japan. ?

Take it as a reference. .