Second, the impact of RMB appreciation:
1. Influence on the balance of import and export trade. 2. Impact on the price level. 3. Impact on capital flow. 4. Impact on foreign exchange reserves. 5. The impact on a country's domestic employment, national income and resource allocation. 6. Impact on international economic relations.
The following is a detailed analysis of trade and individual residents.
The first influence is the foreign exchange dumping effect. There is a definition of "foreign exchange dumping effect": consciously lowering the exchange rate of the local currency will make the export goods expressed in foreign currency more expensive than before. Because RMB is valuable, other things being the same, others' demand for you will decrease. The price of imported goods expressed in RMB is cheaper, that is to say, for the development of foreign trade, it is divided into two parts, mainly export enterprises. If other conditions remain unchanged, it is difficult to increase your export volume only if the RMB appreciates; Then if we mainly do import trade, the cost will drop, because the prices of imported goods are cheap. Or your export goods mainly use imported goods as raw materials, and your cost may have some impact, but it may be less than the loss of pure import trade! But generally speaking, this effect emphasizes its negative effects, because China's export volume is very large, and the difficulties brought by RMB appreciation to trade and exports lie in this aspect. We should try to digest this part in the middle of the price. However, this factor cannot be overemphasized, because it is related to a defect in China's export trade, and we tend to engage in low-price competition, which is the achilles heel of China's export trade. The second effect is the trade structure effect. If other conditions of RMB appreciation remain unchanged, it is difficult to introduce foreign capital just because of RMB appreciation. Why? After the appreciation of RMB, foreign investment in China is expressed in US dollars. Similarly, the amount of1100,000 dollars converted into RMB was relatively large before, but now it is less converted into RMB, so it will be reduced. In the foreign trade structure, the export proportion of foreign-funded enterprises will also decrease accordingly! In addition, the export of low value-added goods will be gradually eliminated. We could have engaged in low-price competition and exported with low added value, but now it's no good! Enterprises exporting low value-added goods will face serious difficulties and even go bankrupt. The appreciation of RMB will help China to improve its trade structure, because foreign investment accounts for most of China's exports. Although the export volume is large, the added value of the products is low. Third, the scale of trade. Trade scale does not mean trade volume. How to expand the scale can be seen from several aspects. The first is import trade. If it is not artificially suppressed, it can be further improved because the price is cheaper. However, there is one factor to consider. Because export trade is blocked, import trade may be affected and the overall import trade may increase. There is a formula in academic circles that the expansion of a country's export trade scale is affected by several factors, including transportation costs. After the appreciation of RMB, the transportation cost will drop, because the transportation cost is paid in US dollars, so the transportation cost can't rise, but only drop. Import trade can be expanded accordingly, and export trade can be proved to be expanded theoretically, so there is no need to worry about the scale of trade. The fourth terms of trade. What do you mean by terms of trade? The price of export commodities expressed in currency is 100 times that of import commodities. If you export a shirt, you can exchange 50 Jin of rice today and 55 Jin of rice tomorrow, which shows that the terms of trade have improved; If you can exchange 45 kg of rice the day after tomorrow, it means that the terms of trade have deteriorated. Generally speaking, the terms of trade are conducive to improvement, that is to say, the general trend of China's exports will lead to more and more foreign exchange products. The fifth trade policy effect. What do you mean by trade policy effect? After the appreciation of RMB, it has touched the trade policy of the central government and the behavior of local governments. For the civil servants of local governments, we particularly emphasize one point. It turns out that the behavior of local governments in China is a paradox, and the behavior of many local governments is contradictory. On the one hand, local governments have the enthusiasm to actively develop local economy and trade growth, and have put a lot of brains into it and introduced many policies to promote it, which should be fully affirmed; However, due to various reasons, the actions of local governments and some policies promulgated by the central government react to the policies promulgated by the central government, which is a special phenomenon in China. Now, some extensive enterprises and local governments have consciously changed. Only the first one here is negative. Don't think that RMB appreciation will definitely have a negative impact on trade development. It won't be like this.
What impact does the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar have on people's daily life? Ordinary people have little influence. Ordinary people don't have much dollars in their hands, which has little effect on some families with dollars. According to the analysis of financial experts, a small appreciation of RMB will stabilize domestic prices, facilitate people's lives, and it may be cheaper to buy imported goods. Especially for overseas tourists, shopping may be cheaper and more convenient.
Three. Measures to prevent exchange rate risks.
1, the method of optimizing currency combination. Under normal circumstances, in export trade, we should choose "currency" or a currency with an upward trend as the pricing currency; In import trade, we should choose "soft currency" or a currency with a downward trend as the pricing currency. In order to buffer the sharp fluctuation of exchange rate in import and export contracts with large amount, multiple currency combinations should be used for pricing, which is usually called "package pricing method". In the selected currency combination, the combination of "currency" and "soft currency" can be adopted, so that the gains brought by the appreciating currency can offset the losses brought by the depreciating currency. If the other party insists on choosing the currency in the transaction, the buyer and the seller can make each other lose money through negotiation.
2. Sign a forward foreign exchange transaction contract. Enterprises with foreign exchange claims or debts can offset foreign exchange risks by signing forward foreign exchange contracts with banks. Enterprises can also borrow loans with the same amount, the same term and the same currency from banks to finance funds, prevent foreign exchange risks and change the risk time. After the signing of a trade contract, foreign exchange income or foreign exchange expenditure is fixed for a certain period of time, and trading companies can use all kinds of foreign exchange in the foreign exchange market to prevent possible risk losses caused by foreign exchange income or expenditure in the future.
3. Conduct forward foreign exchange transactions. Forward foreign exchange is a simple and easy-to-operate means of hedging. That is, when a foreign exchange transaction is concluded, the two parties first reach an agreement on the currency, quantity and exchange rate of the transaction, and then make actual delivery at some time in the future. Forward foreign exchange transactions are generally 30 days, 60 days, 180 days, 1 year, etc. From the signing of the contract to the delivery of foreign exchange, no matter how the exchange rate fluctuates in the foreign exchange market, both parties to the transaction must make delivery at the predetermined exchange rate on the maturity date in accordance with the provisions of the forward contract, so as to determine the company's revenue and expenditure and eliminate the exchange rate risk. After the forward foreign exchange transaction, the creditor's rights and debts due in the future can also be calculated, so that the uncertainty caused by exchange rate changes can be eliminated when comparing costs and benefits. In forward foreign exchange transactions, foreign exchange selective transactions can also be adopted, allowing delivery at the price stipulated in the contract on any day within the time limit stipulated in the contract. Compared with general forward foreign exchange transactions, this kind of transaction is more flexible in the transaction date, and is suitable for preventing foreign exchange risks in trade contracts where the payment date cannot be accurately determined.
4. Carry out foreign exchange futures business. Forex futures trading refers to a contract transaction in which both parties of a futures exchange reach a certain amount of foreign exchange through public bidding at a certain date, place and price in the future. Foreign exchange futures contracts are in the same strain as traditional forward foreign exchange trading contracts, but they also have their own characteristics. Anyone who wants to become a qualified member of forex futures trading must go to the Exchange. Once the transaction is concluded, the buyer and the seller will immediately register the contract with the exchange and pay the deposit. After registration, there is no relationship between the buyer and the seller. Their counterparties will be transferred to the futures market, and the clearing center will be responsible for delivery at maturity. Neither buyer nor seller has to worry about each other's reputation. When a company buys multiple futures contracts and doesn't want them, it can sell the same number of the same contracts, close its positions, and settle its debts in the future, without accepting or paying the money it originally wanted to buy and sell. People who have foreign exchange claims or debts due to international trade can use the forward foreign exchange market for hedging to avoid or reduce the losses caused by exchange rate changes.
5. Use foreign exchange options. Foreign exchange option refers to a contract reached by both parties in advance on whether to buy or sell a foreign exchange asset option at the agreed exchange rate in the future. Option buyers get rights rather than obligations, and have the right to buy or sell such foreign exchange assets when the market is favorable; When the market is unfavorable, you can choose not to exercise options. When the buyer requests to exercise the option, the seller of the option must sell or buy such foreign exchange assets. Compared with forward foreign exchange trading, foreign exchange option trading has certain flexibility, and you can choose to make foreign exchange delivery at maturity, which can not only avoid the losses caused by unfavorable exchange rate changes, but also benefit from favorable changes. This method needs to pay a high fee for the option buyer, and the buyer can predict the worst result at the beginning of the transaction, that is, the biggest loss is the option fee paid.
6. Use swap transactions. Swap trading, also known as time arbitrage, refers to buying or selling a spot currency and a forward currency at the same time, or buying a short-term forward currency and selling the same long-term forward currency. The function of this method is to solve the capital demand of different currencies in different periods.
The exchange rate adjustment of about 2% has little effect on most people. A small appreciation of the renminbi will stabilize domestic prices and facilitate people's lives. It may be cheaper to buy imported goods, especially for overseas tourists, which may be cheaper and more convenient. For some investors who manage dollars, the 2% exchange rate adjustment has little effect.
I tell you, the dollar will definitely depreciate, but China's dollar foreign exchange reserves will increase, which is very contradictory. This is the strategy. Although the dollar has depreciated, we still need more dollars. 1 trillion dollars is really not much. We must have at least 50% dollars in circulation. Otherwise, how can it become a world currency like the dollar? In my opinion, no matter how many dollars the United States issues, shorting and continuing to hold large amounts of dollars are not contradictory. Everything that other countries can't eat is in our pockets. How can you become a world policeman without an appetite? Hmm. How interesting ...
It can be expected that when all the wealth of capital countries flows into the pockets of socialist countries, the world will be more exciting!