Why is there a high probability that 20 18 yuan won't break seven?
1. Judging from the recent remarks of the chairman of the Federal Reserve, the possibility of raising interest rates in the United States in 65438+February is reduced, and the dollar has begun to weaken.
2. China doesn't want the RMB to break through 7 quickly, especially since this year, the RMB exchange rate has been on the edge of 7 several times, and it has been pushing back.
3. The United States is in the cycle of raising interest rates. If the RMB breaks 7% quickly, the RMB may form a trend of rapid depreciation, followed by accelerated capital outflow, which will deal a huge blow to domestic finance and economy.
4. Instead of waiting until the break of seven to recover the decline, it is better to hold it firmly for a period of time before the break of seven, and then loosen the exchange rate after the pattern reverses to China.
5,7 This point is a psychological point, which is the confrontation between overseas short-selling RMB funds and China. It is not terrible for RMB to break seven, but it is terrible to be caught by overseas short-selling forces, which makes the RMB form a rapid depreciation trend.
At present, China's economy needs a stable exchange rate to achieve a stable economic transformation, and the RMB can't break seven. This is not only a game between long and short, but also a game between the financial forces of two countries.
Pay attention to whether the RMB will break seven, and pay more attention to what the future trend of the RMB may be.
China's economy wants to develop well, but it doesn't want the RMB to fluctuate greatly, because the RMB needs to be internationalized, and the RMB is being internationalized.
In the long run, the RMB needs to be stable, otherwise there is no way for the RMB to go out.
For a long time to come, the RMB will fluctuate within a range, instead of ups and downs. This is a game between two countries. I hope we don't crush ourselves to lose!