What is risk?
This is an unpredictable and uncontrollable factor. Financially, we use the asset-liability ratio to measure the company's debt level. Debt ratio is the ratio of total liabilities to total assets of a company.
For example, if a company has a debt of 4 million yuan and its assets are 6,543,800,000 yuan, then its debt ratio is 40%.
According to research, the average asset-liability ratio of listed companies in China is around 42%. If the debt ratio is lower than this ratio, the creditors who lend you money will feel at ease and the investors who invest in you will have confidence in you. Above this ratio, the bankruptcy risk of the company will greatly increase.
What business common sense does the asset-liability ratio involve?
1. The company's asset-liability ratio far exceeds the industry average and is in a state of high debt.
From 20 18 to the third quarter of 2020, the total amount of short-term loans and long-term loans of Huitong shares were12.3 million yuan,1290,000 yuan and136/kloc-0.0 million yuan respectively, but even so, the funds
Due to a large number of loans, Huitong's asset-liability ratio is also quite high.
2. The company's fixed demand for funds is related to the level of asset-liability ratio.
If the company has no interest-bearing liabilities, short-term loans, non-current liabilities, long-term loans and bonds payable due within one year, the asset-liability ratio is only below 30%, indicating that the company can meet the capital demand by using its own funds and leverage.
For example, as of June 30, 2020, Shandong Pharmaceutical Glass had monetary funds of 7180,000 yuan, transactional financial assets (bank wealth management products) of 4180,000 yuan and cash assets of1360,000 yuan.
Moreover, the company has no interest-bearing liabilities, short-term loans, non-current liabilities due within one year, long-term loans and bonds payable are all zero, and the asset-liability ratio at the end of the period is only 25.9%.
3. When the company's short-term loans and related liabilities are much higher than monetary funds, it is even difficult to cover related liabilities, indicating that the company's capital chain is very tight.
4. Debt ratio cannot be compared across industries.
According to statistics, there are obvious industry differences in asset-liability ratio. The debt ratio of finance, real estate and construction is the highest, reaching more than 70%. The debt ratio of food and beverage, cultural media and medical biology is the lowest, below 40%.
An important principle of financial statement analysis is that financial data cannot be compared across industries, and the correct method is to compare with other companies in the same industry.
5. The higher the asset-liability ratio, the greater the equity multiplier, indicating that the company has a high degree of debt.
Asset-liability ratio is the ratio of total liabilities to total assets. Too high a ratio will contain a potential financial crisis. Whether this potential crisis breaks out depends on whether the debt structure is reasonable.
If the long-term liabilities account for a relatively high proportion, the business of the enterprise develops normally and can generate stable operating cash flow, the potential financial crisis will not break out. On the other hand, if there are too many short-term debts due within one year, it means that enterprises will face great pressure of cash payment.
Once the finance is out of control, the enterprise will be in trouble immediately, at the same time, the external financing ability will drop sharply, the capital chain will break, and the due debts will not be paid, and the potential financial crisis will break out.
Wind statistics show that at the end of 20 12, the asset-liability ratio of five listed companies in the glass industry increased by 6. 16 percentage points, and Luoyang glass with the highest asset-liability ratio even reached 94.58%.
Since the listing of 18, Luoyang Glass has suffered profit losses in seven fiscal years, and its net profit in two years is less than10 million yuan. The losses for many years have exhausted the cash flow of Luoyang Glass, and it can only live through bank loans, resulting in a high asset-liability ratio of Luoyang Glass.
Some bankers revealed that it is difficult to get loans when the debt ratio exceeds 70%, which is an "invisible warning line". Some insiders also said that the debt ratio warning line is 80%.
What is the asset-liability ratio of the service industry?
The overall asset-liability ratio of small and medium-sized enterprises in service industry is low, and the operating debt ratio of small and medium-sized enterprises in service industry is higher than the financial debt ratio, which shows that it is difficult for small and medium-sized enterprises in service industry to raise funds through financial liabilities and have to raise funds through commercial credit.
Small and medium-sized enterprises in service industry can fully consider the structural characteristics of "light assets" of small and medium-sized enterprises, appropriately carry out financial debt financing, and vigorously strengthen business debt financing such as commercial credit.
What are the similarities between China's liabilities and those of other Asian countries?
From May 2065438 to May 2007, Moody's, one of the three largest credit rating companies in the world, downgraded China's sovereign debt by one notch, because it was worried that the debt of the second largest economy would grow too fast and China would have to rely more and more on debt to achieve its economic growth goal.
1. Economic growth depends on investment.
Before 1997, the same feature of Asian economic growth mode was that it relied on investment and grew with it. Pomerleano, a bank economist, said in a research report on 1999 that during the period from 1992 to 1996, the investment in fixed assets of Indonesian companies grew at an average annual rate of 33%, that of Thai companies at an average annual rate of 29%, that of Malaysia at 20% and that of South Korea at 18%, while during the same period.
2. Debt financing accounts for a high proportion.
Before 1997, on average, 78% of fixed assets investment funds of Thai enterprises came from debt, and debt financing accounted for 69% of new investment of Korean enterprises, 67% of Indonesia, 45% of Malaysia, 19% of Latin American countries, 8% of the United States and 6% of Germany. In contrast, before 2007, domestic investment in debt financing accounted for more than 90%; Since 2007, more attention has been paid to direct financing, and by 20 12, the proportion of debt financing still exceeds 84%.
3. The debt level is high.
The development of debt financing will last for a long time, and the debt will only accumulate higher and higher. According to the World Bank economist Pomerleano's estimate of 1996, the debt-to-equity ratio of Thai enterprises (the ratio of corporate liabilities divided by net assets) is 155%, South Korea is 145%, Indonesia is 92% and Malaysia is 62%. These debt ratios are not low. In contrast, according to the estimation of scholars such as Li Yang, by the end of 20 14, the total liabilities of Chinese enterprises were 2010.9 trillion, the net assets were 135.7 trillion, and the debt ratio was 148.8%.
How to reduce the asset-liability ratio?
1. Debt-to-equity swap.
2065438+August 2009, Hangfa Power (600893) announced that it planned to increase the capital of its Liming Company, Liyang Electric Power Company and Nanfang Company by implementing the debt-to-equity swap scheme of 6.5 billion yuan, thus reducing the asset-liability ratio of the three subsidiaries.
Hangfa Power said that while the company expanded its revenue scale and increased its market share, there was a short-term lag in payment, increased financial pressure and continued tight operating cash flow. Through this debt-to-equity swap, the development difficulties of Liming Company, Liyang Electric Power Company and Nanfang Company can be solved, the asset-liability ratio of the three subsidiaries can be significantly reduced, and the financial cost can be reduced, laying the foundation for their technological transformation, transformation and upgrading.
2. Direct financing through listing can reduce the asset-liability ratio, thus reducing operational risks.
Many listed companies are capital-intensive industries, such as real estate, banking, chemical industry and electronic machinery manufacturing. In the critical stage or bottleneck stage of expansion and development, it is very important to obtain huge funds and solve the problem of technology and market scale.
Previously, Yuexiu Property (0 123. HK) recently announced that it will spin off its properties and list them on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. For quasi-100 billion housing enterprises with interest-bearing liabilities exceeding 70 billion yuan, debt security is very important in the case of tight funds.
Due to the natural leverage of housing enterprises, many housing enterprises are increasing interest-bearing liabilities in the process of expanding their scale. High debt has overwhelmed some housing enterprises. The three red lines launched by the regulatory authorities are precisely to limit the disorderly growth of interest-bearing liabilities of housing enterprises.
The three red lines mean that the asset-liability ratio after excluding advance payment is more than 70%, the net debt ratio is more than 100%, and the short-term cash debt ratio is less than 1 times. According to the different conditions of the contact line, the real estate enterprises are divided into four grades: red, orange, yellow and green, and the growth threshold of interest-bearing liabilities is set in each grade.
That is, if all three red lines are touched, the interest-bearing liabilities of housing enterprises can no longer be increased; If the two items are touched, the growth rate of interest-bearing liabilities shall not exceed 5%; If one is touched, the growth rate shall not exceed10%; One item is unqualified, and the growth rate does not exceed 15%.
CICC predicts that with the accumulation of the company's profits, the company's debt ratio after deducting the advance payment will fall below 70%, and all three red lines of Yuexiu Property in 2020 will be reduced to green files.