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Summary of interest rate theory by major economists. About 3000 words ~
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How to understand the interest rate determinism of Marx and western economics;

Marx's interest rate determinism is based on an accurate grasp of the source and essence of interest. Marx revealed that interest is a part of the surplus value separated by the capitalist who lends capital from the capitalist who borrows capital, and profit is the transformation form of surplus value. This qualitative stipulation of interest determines its quantitative stipulation (this qualitative stipulation of interest determines its quantitative stipulation), the amount of interest depends on the total profit, and the interest rate depends on the average profit rate. Marx further pointed out that between the average profit rate and zero, the interest rate depends on two factors: first, the profit rate; The second is the proportion of total profits distributed between borrowers and lenders. The determination of this ratio mainly depends on the relationship between supply and demand and the degree of competition between borrowers and lenders. Generally speaking, when supply exceeds demand, interest rates fall; When demand exceeds supply, interest rates will rise. In addition, laws and customs also play a greater role. Marx's theory has guiding significance for explaining the interest rate decision under the condition of socialized mass production.

Western interest rate determinism mostly focuses on the analysis of the relationship between supply and demand, and holds that interest rate is a kind of price. The difference lies in what kind of supply and demand determines the interest rate. For example, Marshall's real interest rate theory emphasizes the role of non-monetary real factors-productivity and economy in interest rate determination. Productivity is expressed by marginal propensity to invest, and savings is expressed by marginal propensity to save. Investment is a decreasing function of interest rate, and savings is a decreasing function of interest rate. The change of interest rate depends on the equilibrium point of investment and savings. Keynes's theory of money supply and demand holds that interest rates are determined by monetary factors rather than practical factors. Money supply is an exogenous variable determined by the central bank, and money demand depends on people's liquidity preference. When people's liquidity preference increases, they tend to increase the amount of money they hold, so the interest rate is determined by the money demand and money supply determined by liquidity preference. The theory of loanable funds integrates the first two kinds of interest rate determinism, and holds that interest rate is determined by supply and demand in loanable funds. Supply includes total savings and new money from banks, while demand includes total investment and new money. The decision of interest rate depends on the * * * equilibrium of commodity market and money market.

Under the condition of socialist market economy, we should take Marx's viewpoint as the guide, learn from western experience, and consider the influence of various factors on interest rate determination, such as average profit rate, the relationship between supply and demand of funds, price fluctuation range, and foreign economic environment.

How to analyze the main factors that determine and influence the interest rate in China?

The interest rate level of a country is limited by specific social and economic conditions. Starting from the reality of our country at this stage, the main factors that determine and influence interest rates are:

(1) average profit rate. In the socialist market economy, interest is still a part of the average profit, so the interest rate is also determined by the average profit rate. According to the current situation of China's economic development and reform practice, this restriction can be summarized as follows: the overall level of interest rates should adapt to the affordability of most enterprises. In other words, the overall interest rate level should not be too high, which is too high for most enterprises to bear; On the contrary, the overall level of interest rate should not be too low to play the role of interest rate leverage.

(2) the supply and demand of funds. When the average profit rate is fixed, the change of interest rate depends on the ratio of average profit to interest and enterprise profit. And this ratio is determined by the competition between the supply and demand sides of loan capital. Generally speaking, when there is a shortage of loan funds, the competition between borrowers and lenders will lead to an increase in interest rates; On the contrary, when the supply of loan capital exceeds demand, the result of competition will inevitably lead to a decline in interest rates. Under the condition of China's market economy, because the "price" of goods in the financial market-interest rate is restricted by the law of supply and demand, the supply and demand of funds still plays a decisive role in the level of interest rate.

(3) the range of price changes. Because the price is rigid, the changing trend is generally upward, so how to keep the currency you hold from depreciating or how to get compensation after devaluation is a common concern. This concern makes it necessary for banks engaged in monetary funds to adapt the nominal interest rate of deposit absorption to the range of price increase, otherwise it will be difficult to absorb deposits; At the same time, it is necessary to adapt the nominal interest rate of loans to the range of rising prices, otherwise it will be difficult to obtain investment income. Therefore, the nominal interest rate level and the price level have a synchronous development trend, and the range of price changes restricts the nominal interest rate level.

(4) International economic environment. After the reform and opening up, China's economic ties with other countries have become increasingly close. In this case, the interest rate is inevitably influenced by international economic factors, which are shown in the following aspects: ① international capital flows affect the interest rate level in China by changing the capital supply in China; ② The interest rate level in China is also influenced by international commodity competition; (3) The interest rate level in China is also influenced by the country's foreign exchange reserves and foreign capital utilization policies.

(5) Policy factors. Since the founding of 1949, China's interest rate basically belongs to the type of regulated interest rate. Interest rates are uniformly set by the State Council and managed by the People's Bank of China. In the formulation and implementation of interest rate level, it is influenced by policy factors. For example, from the founding of the People's Republic of China to the ten-year turmoil, China has long implemented a low interest rate policy to stabilize prices and stabilize the market. Starting from 1978, differential interest rates are implemented for some departments and enterprises, which reflects policy guidance or policy restrictions. It can be seen that in China's socialist market economy, interest rates do not fluctuate freely with the supply and demand of credit funds, but also depend on the needs of the state to regulate the economy and are controlled and regulated by the state.

When discussing the determination and influencing factors of China's interest rate, we should pay attention to the fact that under the condition of China's socialist market economy, we can't simply apply which western theory, but should take Marx's interest rate theory as a guide, learn from the reasonable components of western theories, and study the problem from the reality at this stage, so as to correctly grasp the determination and influencing factors of China's interest rate.