At the Sanya Finance and Economics International Forum held in February/kloc-0,65438, Cao Yuanzheng, chairman of BOC International Research Corporation and former chief economist of Bank of China, said, "In the case that the United States may raise interest rates continuously in the future and developing countries have been at low interest rates, the inconsistency of monetary policy will cause great uncertainty, which is likely to lead to the risk similar to the Asian financial crisis."
In the past 30 years, every time the Federal Reserve raised interest rates and the dollar appreciated, it was accompanied by a crisis in emerging markets. The appreciation of 1980- 1985 dollars detonated the debt crisis in Latin America; 1995-200 1 produced the Asian financial crisis and the Russian debt crisis; The overall appreciation of the US dollar since 20 1 1 has caused repeated shocks in emerging market countries and financial markets in Latin America and Asia.
Three kills on China Stock and Bond Exchange.
In China's financial market, due to the interest rate hike, three domestic stock and bond markets reacted violently at the opening on Thursday (12, 14). China 10-year bonds and 5-year bonds both fell, with 10-year bonds falling the most since listing. Both Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets opened lower, and the Shanghai Composite Index opened at 3 125.76, down 0.47%. Shenzhen Component Index opened at 10202.24, down 0.3%. Growth enterprise market opened at 1957.75438+0, down 0.27%. The onshore RMB opened sharply lower against the US dollar by nearly 300 points to 6.9350, hitting an eight-year low. The offshore RMB once fell below the 6.95 mark against the US dollar earlier, but then the decline narrowed, and now it fluctuates around 6.9420.
At present, China is facing a slowdown in economic growth, and raising interest rates in the United States may increase capital outflow, thus bringing additional growth resistance.
In terms of the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on China's economy, Zhu, chief economist of CITIC Securities, believes that the short-term impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on China's economy will increase, mainly affecting China's economy through three factors:
One is trade. The fed's interest rate hike again shows that the US economic recovery is clear. Due to the economic status of the United States, this will probably improve the weak global trade situation slightly, which is positive for China's export improvement;
The second is monetary policy. At present, China's monetary policy is sound, with the task of restraining asset bubbles and preventing economic and financial risks, and inflation is on the rise. The Fed's interest rate hike may further limit China's monetary policy space.
The third is foreign exchange. Due to the profit-seeking nature of capital, the increase in the return on US dollar assets will further put pressure on the RMB. If 20 17 raises interest rates frequently, foreign exchange reserves will also be under greater pressure. Generally speaking, the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on China's economy is mixed, but the economy may be greatly affected in the short term. It believes that after this interest rate hike, it is mainly necessary to pay attention to the economic impact of Trump's policies after he took office.
Historical data shows that A shares are not affected much.
For China, in the three rounds of austerity in the United States since 1994, the Shanghai Composite Index fell within 1 month after the first interest rate hike, but it did not perform well in the first quarter after the first interest rate hike in the United States, but this may be more closely related to domestic factors in China, because in 1994 and 2004, even before the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
According to statistics, since the beginning of this year, the Federal Reserve has held seven interest rate meetings. On the eve of the meeting, A shares fell six times, and the probability of falling exceeded 80%, with obvious negative impact. After the meeting, the Federal Reserve did not start to raise interest rates, and A shares returned to the original track, mainly rising, showing obvious strength.
The Fed finally raised interest rates. What is the impact of this "difficult" decision on China?
The Fed finally raised interest rates. What is the impact of this "difficult" decision on China?
As can be seen from the above table, there is no strong correlation between the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on A shares, and A shares still operate according to their own laws. However, due to the long interval between the Fed's previous interest rate hikes, the reference significance is not too great. The latest rate hike was in 65438+February and 65438+June last year. A shares rose before and after the rate hike.
Analysts believe that the Fed's interest rate hike is an external cause, and the external cause can only work through internal factors. Judging from the historical performance of the A-share market after the Fed's interest rate hike in the past, it is expected that the impact of the Fed's interest rate hike on the A-share market will be limited. As far as the status quo of A shares is concerned, the short-term market performance depends on domestic policies. Under the influence of factors such as tight funds at the end of the year, the A-share market may continue to consolidate.
The pressure of RMB depreciation has increased
Guan Qingyou and Li Qilin, analysts of the fixed income team of Minsheng Securities, wrote in the last Fed rate hike that in the medium and long term, the Fed rate hike will aggravate the depreciation pressure of RMB exchange rate. Since 20 14, the RMB exchange rate has entered the era of two-way fluctuation, but the fluctuation center is constantly depreciating. The average exchange rate of 20 14 RMB against the US dollar was 6. 16, and 20 15 dropped to 6.47. The RMB exchange rate center may continue to depreciate in the next few years.
Liu Ligang, chief China economist of Citigroup, said before the Fed raised interest rates that under the background of a strong dollar, China's current practice of keeping the RMB stable against a basket of currencies will lead to a one-way depreciation expectation. Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Mizuho Securities Asia, said in an interview on the eve of raising interest rates that if the economic policy advocated by Trump is as positive as expected, the pace of raising interest rates in the United States will be more compact next year. If the dollar continues to be strong in the future, capital outflows will continue, and the RMB will face greater depreciation pressure.