On February 3, 65438, Russian officials admitted for the first time that the country's economy would fall into recession in 20 15. The Russian Ministry of Economic Development released an economic outlook report, saying that the Russian economy is expected to shrink by 0.8% in 20 15 years, which is a huge contrast with the previous forecast that the Russian economy will grow by 1.2% next year. The continuous decline in oil prices has undoubtedly become the biggest concern of Russian officials.
Lin, director of China Energy Economic Research Center of Xiamen University, said in an interview with the reporter of China Business News: "At present, the balance between supply and demand of oil has been broken. In the short term, if oil suppliers have no intention to cut production and demand does not increase significantly, oil prices will still face a downward trend. Because Russia is too dependent on energy exports, the Russian economy will undoubtedly collapse in the long run. "
"We will ride out the oil price fluctuation period"
Yesterday (65438+February 3), the Russian Ministry of Economic Development released the latest economic outlook report. The report pointed out that the sanctions imposed by western countries and the continuous decline in crude oil prices will lead to a 0.8% economic recession in Russia in 20 15. At the same time, the economic growth forecast of 20 14 is lowered from 1.2% to 0.5%. In addition, the Russian Ministry of Finance predicts that western sanctions against the country will last until the end of 20 15.
AlexeiVedev, Russian Deputy Minister of Economic Development, said: "The degree of Russian economic decline is far more serious than previously expected. The main reason for adjusting our forecast is that the oil price has fallen, which has caused the ruble exchange rate to be hit hard, which will lead to an increase in inflation rate, an increase in inflationary pressure and a decline in purchasing power. "
The Russian Ministry of Economic Development predicts that by the end of 20 15, Russia's inflation rate will reach 7.5%, which is higher than the previous forecast of 5% to 6%. In addition, the department predicts that the international oil price will be at a low level of $ 20~80 per barrel next year.
Obviously, Russian officials have regarded the fall in oil prices as a major unfavorable factor affecting the country's future economic trend. When the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries decided to let oil prices continue to fall in the bear market, Putin still tried to convince the market with his personal charm that "Russia will survive the oil price fluctuation period safely".
On the third day (165438+129 October) when the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries issued the decision not to cut production, Putin publicly stated that he expected the oil market to restore the balance between supply and demand in the middle of 20 15 years. "At present, the international oil and energy market is going through a difficult period, which is no accident for Russia. Russia has the ability to meet any challenges in the international oil market. "
Putin is even more optimistic: "We are generally satisfied with the situation. The decision of the meeting of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries not to cut production is beneficial to Russia, because no major oil producer should take special measures to pursue oil prices. From the very beginning, Russia has a clear understanding and judgment on the normal reaction of falling oil prices. Winter is coming, and I believe that the crude oil market will return to balance in the first quarter of next year or near the middle of the year. "
But in fact, in Russia's 20 14 financial forecast, the income related to crude oil export accounts for 48% of the total fiscal revenue, and since June this year, the price of crude oil has fallen by more than 40%. What's more, the current downward trend of oil prices makes it difficult for people in the industry to judge where the bottom line is.
Morgan Stanley once predicted that every 10 drop in crude oil price would mean a loss of $32.4 billion in Russian exports, accounting for about 1.6% of the country's GDP.
In addition, regarding the economic sanctions against Europe and the United States, Maxim Oreshkin, Director of the Long-term Strategic Planning Department of the Russian Ministry of Finance, said: "It is expected that the western sanctions will last until the end of 20 15, and it will take Russia 1 2 years to return to normal after the sanctions are lifted."
"As a result of European and American sanctions, we lose about $40 billion a year. As oil prices plummet by nearly 40%, our annual loss is between $90 billion and $654.38+000 billion." Russian Finance Minister Antony Louanov said.
"We are stronger than any other country"
In addition to uncontrollable external factors such as the collapse of oil prices and sanctions in Europe and the United States, internal difficulties such as the devaluation of the ruble, high inflation, capital flight and the decline of foreign reserves have also developed to the point where the Russian government is somewhat helpless.
165438+1October 25th, in an interview with Russian tass news agency, Putin once said: "I firmly believe that Russia is the most powerful country. We are strong because we are right. When the Russians think he is right, nothing can stop. I said this sentence sincerely, not arbitrarily. "
So, how solid is the current economic foundation of a powerful country in Putin's eyes?
First of all, the ruble has fallen to a record low. On Monday, the ruble plunged sharply, hitting a new low since 1998 with a one-day drop of 6%. At present, the ruble has fallen by nearly 40%, making it the worst performing currency this year.
Secondly, in order to support the ruble, the Russian central bank used a large amount of foreign exchange reserves, but the result not only did not make the ruble "ups and downs", but instead exposed the Russian government to the risk of a rapid decline in foreign reserves.
165438+1On October 7, the balance of foreign reserves announced by the Russian Central Bank was US$ 4.2100 billion, a decrease of US$ 103 billion compared with the same period of last year and the lowest point in four years.
To make matters worse, economic uncertainty has led to a large amount of capital flight from Russia. A report released by the Russian Ministry of Economic Development yesterday pointed out: "The more severe geopolitical situation and the uncertainty caused by the lack of economic confidence have prompted us to expect greater capital outflows and lower investment." The report predicts that the scale of capital flight in 20 14 will reach125 billion US dollars, much higher than the previous forecast of100 billion US dollars.
At present, the total foreign debt faced by Russian enterprises exceeds 500 billion US dollars. At that time, the massive issuance of bonds made Russian enterprises face the pressure of debt repayment, and the risk of default attracted the attention of global investors.
"Looking back at history, we will find that the current situation in Russia is strikingly similar to that in the 1998 Russian debt crisis. The Russian central bank unexpectedly raised the benchmark interest rate 150 basis points at the recent interest rate meeting to prevent the ruble from continuing to depreciate. However, due to the worrying sanctions situation in Europe and America, Russia may not even be able to borrow money at high interest rates. Russian enterprises need to repay $54.7 billion in foreign debts in the next three months. In order to avoid further economic difficulties, the Russian central bank has to continue to use foreign exchange reserves on a large scale to tide over the difficulties. " Song Decai, chief analyst of Rong Hui Concept, said.
1998, a debt crisis occurred in Russia. At that time, the Asian financial [0.00%] crisis raged, and the international oil price plummeted to $65,438 +00.72 per barrel. In order to defend the ruble exchange rate, Russia was forced to use huge foreign exchange reserves. At that time, before the Russian central bank was about to give up supporting the ruble, the country's remaining foreign reserves were less than $654.38+0 billion.
But perhaps Putin's greatest source of confidence is the continued support of the Russian people. As a Russian sociologist said, "We are getting poorer and poorer, savings are disappearing and prices are rising. However, we are surprised to find that there are not many people who are dissatisfied with Putin. "