Tang Binsen, founder of Yuan Qi Forest, CEO of Zhixingtong. At the age of 22, he won the gold medal in the international programming contest and started the campus entrepreneurship process with a prize of 250,000 yuan. In 2008, Happy Farm Game was spread to more than 20 countries around the world, affecting 500 million people overseas.

In 20 16, zhixingtong ranked 16 in the top 50 publishers list of APP Annie20 15, which was second only to Tencent and Netease among domestic enterprises. Yuan Qi Forest was established three years ago with a valuation of over 4 billion yuan.

This article is an industry sharing of Tang Binsen, reviewing his thoughts and feelings since he started his business. It is well worth reading and recommended to everyone: The Relationship between Entrepreneurship and Scientific Statistics.

Statistically, there is such a situation:

If a person studies on the new york subway, do you think this person is a junior college student or an undergraduate? Are there more learned people or more uneducated people? I believe that most people will consider themselves learned people. But in fact, from the perspective of scientific statistics, this answer is wrong.

Don't forget, "This is on the new york subway". Statistically speaking, these people on the new york subway have the worst income in the whole society. Once you get on this boat, it's useless to be a cow. This is what a Nobel laureate in economics said. He said that you should not forget the basic probability of anything.

Bayesian theory is the basic theory of probability statistics, and its core principle is: the probability of an event = the basic probability * the probability of the event itself.

Another popular metaphor:

The probability of handsome Andy Lau finding a beautiful woman in college has little to do with whether he is handsome or not. It is useless for him to be handsome in Beihang University, because the ratio of male to female students in Beihang University is 7: 1.

What am I talking about? Because of this, I paid the tuition for three years.

At that time, our entrepreneurial team was quite good. In 2004, we went abroad to participate in the programming contest, and we beat many big companies and world-class universities as soon as we went up. We made 250 thousand at that time, and we felt very good. Such a team will definitely make money if they do psychological test projects.

Correspondingly, it is a group of salespeople with poor ability and low knowledge who have worked in SP industry (telecom value-added service providers). Which team do you think has more money? The answer is, it must be someone who does SP. Because in 2008, the most profitable is the SP industry.

Therefore, you must understand one thing, no matter how good you are, your industry is not good, and your basic probability is not good, it is no use, remember firmly.

Under a general trend, we can only go with the flow and no one can change it. If you want to think about one thing, is the situation stronger than others or people stronger than the situation? What happened? Is this industry good or not?

If no one has ever made money in this industry before, or the best company can only make very little money, you say that I have appeared, I can transform this industry, and I can make this industry earn ten times? Do you think it's possible?

This is a real mistake. It is impossible to think that your appearance can change this industry. If you ask him to do a psychological test today, I don't believe he can do much. Be sure to recognize this matter.

Then we have a story:

At that time, after the completion of the psychological test project, many people suggested playing games, but we dared not do it. Why?

Because I feel that the psychological test of this industry is worse, and I am also the first in China. All the websites in China use our service. That game is played by so many people. It is fierce and cruel. What are the chances?

Later, we couldn't help being poor, so we tried games. Fortunately, there is nothing we can do, or we will really die in this psychological testing industry.

By the way, many investors today, in fact, I think the investor has a great responsibility, because he is involved in the distribution of social resources. At that time, almost one investor wanted to vote for us, with an investment of100000. I think we young people are very passionate and can do this industry.

Now I think it's a good thing that he didn't vote. If he does, China may lose a billion dollars in foreign exchange, and we will lose everything in the psychological test industry, and his money will be gone. So I think investors sometimes don't invest in a project, which often makes the team see the problem more clearly than investing in this project.

At that time, none of us dared to play games. Later, we did a little bit with the mentality of giving it a try and found that the effect was completely different.

From then on, I know that a good industry is different from a bad industry. In a good industry, you are better than a bad industry, and there is a big difference. After that, we experienced another industry.

At that time, we saw anti-virus software when we were doing overseas markets: first, we saw fierce competition in this industry; Second, I see that the competitors here are very strong; Third, seeing this market is very profitable.

Because the tuition fees paid before were too heavy, my eyes brightened. I said yes, this industry is what we should do. I told the team that we would be the tenth.

This business is doing well at present. In hindsight, this change is very firm, just like Andy Lau turned from Beihang University to Beiying University and found a beautiful woman in an instant.

So be sure to think clearly, are you on the new york subway?

If so, change planes quickly. This is very important.