Biden, who has just ascended the presidency, has not yet sat hot. Such a huge financial rescue plan was rushed out, unprecedented and unprecedented.
The most unexpected thing is that this plan, which contains huge amounts of money, was passed and implemented in just a few days. The economic crisis in 2008 made the global economy depressed and social development depressed, and it did not slow down for many years. At that time, the planned funds launched by the US government were RMB 4 trillion. The fund plan launched now is three times that of 2008!
The current 12 trillion dollar fund plan, plus the 900 billion dollar rescue plan just passed before, will be as high as 2.8 trillion dollars! Mrs. White Snake, who was all over the mountains, would be ashamed if she could see the United States, which is now a "submerged global village".
Can large-scale water release really alleviate the global liquidity crisis?
The most serious impact on the world economic market in the rescue plans of various countries is the release of US dollars. After the dollar is liberalized, the United States will certainly gain the most.
Since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar, like other countries' currencies, is legal tender. However, currency issuance in many countries in the world can be understood as monetary credit, which is directly linked to the US dollar.
In other words, the dollar can be printed indefinitely according to the needs of the United States. Then buy goods, invest in the market, and merge enterprises all over the world, so as to transfer inflation to the world market and let the world market share the inflation risk with it. 1970' s Latin American economic crisis and 1997' s Asian economic crisis all had dollar operations.
With the release of the dollar and the decline of interest rates, American capitalists can get cheaper funds at the lowest interest rate of 0, and through capital operation, go to other countries to buy core assets such as oil. Although all the money in the United States is distributed by the Treasury, the Federal Reserve is responsible for printing. After printing the money, the Fed will not give it directly to the US Treasury, but throw it around.
Use the Ministry of Finance to borrow from the Federal Reserve by issuing treasury bonds. In this way, we can not only borrow from the Federal Reserve continuously, but also reduce the repayment cost of the US dollar, killing two birds with one stone. The United States is a country with a credit system, and there is no money to print. Devaluation can reduce the risk of domestic debt crisis.
To sum up, the biggest beneficiary after the big dollar release must be the United States. But this operation only forms a bubble economy. After a short period of prosperity, there are bound to be problems. See the 2008 economic crisis for details.
The position of the dollar in the world currency. Since March 2020, the Federal Reserve has launched a crazy "printing money" rescue plan. Successful water release may improve the economy in a short time, but throughout history, in the era of water release, the polarization between the rich and the poor is more serious than any other era. The rich are richer and the poor are poorer, and the gap will only get bigger and bigger, becoming an insurmountable gap.
Excess money will never flow to the poor. The great power of the US dollar is mainly due to the fact that the US dollar is the universal settlement currency. Excess dollars flow into the world market by buying goods produced abroad, while the increase of dollars in the hands of other countries will lead to a sharp depreciation of dollars.
As the initiator, the United States successfully passed on domestic inflation and successfully pocketed global wealth. Currency devaluation has brought extremely bad effects.
Take Zimbabwe as an example:
2/kloc-0 At the beginning of the 20th century, Zimbabwe's economic market suffered from hyperinflation. In 2008, in response to this crisis, Bank of Zimbabwe issued the world's largest denomination of paper money-a single denomination of 100 trillion yuan. And money with such a high denomination can't even buy a piece of bread.
From this, let's look at the issuance of dollars. You will understand the harm it brings. The Federal Reserve released water, making Wall Street easily the world's number one, without pressure. Other countries will not sit still, but will continue to release water, print money, issue bonds and cut interest rates. .................................................................................................................................................
According to the data of China Foreign Exchange Trading Center, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was lowered by 194 points to 7.0522, the lowest since19,31.
In mid-March 2020, the US dollar index rose sharply. March 18 stood at the 100 mark again after three years, and March 10 1.75 was the highest intraday appreciation.
On March 30, 2020, the People's Bank of China launched a 50 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by way of interest rate bidding, and the central bank won the bid rate of 2.20% in the open market for 7 days.
In 2020, the trade volume between China and the United States reached US$ 586.7 billion, of which China exported US$ 45 1.8 billion, up by 7.9% year-on-year.
The reverse repurchase operation can greatly reduce the financing cost of China's real economy. In 2020, affected by African swine fever, pork prices soared rapidly, raising CPI. 202 1 With the influence of African swine fever gradually decreasing, pork prices began to fall back to normal prices.
According to the growth cycle of pigs, the price of pork will continue to fall, and when the supply of pork exceeds demand in the second half of the year, the price of meat will fall below the normal price. The upstream and downstream industrial chain of pork will also be affected, thus reducing the product price. The continuous appreciation of the RMB against the US dollar can hedge the price increase of a considerable number of imported goods. It will reach the peak of stage 4.5 by 2022.
Overseas tourism is on the rise again, and the cultural industry is booming. China's industrial chain is more complete than other countries, and the import ratio of finished products is not high. According to this feature, we can see that the prices of a large number of foods and processed products are falling, while the prices of gasoline and various imported consumer goods are rising, which will change the consumption habits of all walks of life to varying degrees.
High inflation abroad and low inflation at home have left a lot of room for manoeuvre for the introduction and implementation of China's financial policy. The release of water from the United States has caused global inflation, which is another gain for the world. Many countries cannot effectively resist because of their imperfect systems and low resistance.
However, the rise of our country is very good, and its ability to resist is gradually increasing. The impact can be controlled within a certain range through fiscal policy, and short-term impact will not affect our modernization process.
Although we are not necessarily beneficiaries and winners. But we will never lose.