1, "the two-way fluctuation of exchange rate is obvious" is the first one. From 8. 1 1 to the beginning of March this year, the RMB exchange rate experienced two rounds of sharp depreciation. Since March 3 this year, the exchange rate has been generally stable and rebounded slightly.
However, in May and June, especially under the influence of Britain's withdrawal from the European Union, the RMB exchange rate showed a new round of depreciation momentum, and even once broke 1 6.7 yuan RMB.
2. The exchange rate shows a trend of depreciation. On the whole, the RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar and against a basket of currencies.
On August 2 this year, the central parity of RMB against the US dollar was 6.645 1 yuan, down 2.33% from the end of 20 15.
According to the calculation of the Bank for International Settlements, from 8. 1 1 to the end of June this year, the nominal effective exchange rate of RMB depreciated by 6.2 1%, and the real effective exchange rate depreciated by 5.99%.
3. Offshore and onshore RMB spreads have expanded, with the highest spread between CNH and CNY reaching more than 1.300, which has intensified currency speculation in the market.
4, from pegged to a single dollar to refer to a basket of currencies.
8. 1 1 After the exchange rate reform, the main feature of the RMB exchange rate operation mechanism is to change from a single "anchor" to a "double anchor" mechanism, that is, to use the US dollar or a basket of currencies as the "anchor" for RMB exchange rate adjustment, so that the RMB exchange rate fluctuation is not affected by the single US dollar exchange rate.
However, since the US dollar is still the main currency for foreign trade and settlement of foreign debt claims in China, the impact of the change of the US dollar exchange rate on the RMB exchange rate is still an important factor.
5. The expectation of market depreciation has intensified, which has aggravated the depreciation of RMB exchange rate and increased the pressure of capital outflow.
Since 8. 1 1 exchange rate reform, the spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar fell below 6.7 for the first time on July 7 this year, and was 6.70 18 and 6.7070 1 1 on July 8, respectively.
On July 15, it fell below 6.70 again, ranging from 6.7 16, 18 to 19, and the spot exchange rate of offshore RMB against the US dollar fluctuated between 6.70-6.7 1.
On July 18, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar once fell below the psychological barrier of 6.70, which really increased the market's psychological expectation of RMB depreciation.
In fact, it is very difficult to analyze and judge the level and trend of RMB exchange rate. Generally speaking, with the gradual improvement of the marketization level of RMB exchange rate, two-way fluctuation of exchange rate will become the norm, and it should be normal for RMB to appreciate or depreciate for a period of time.