Judging from the performance of tourism stocks before and after the Olympic Games in recent years, we found that tourism stocks had a good market performance before the Olympic Games.
We believe that the above-mentioned strong performance of tourism stocks is not accidental.
The Olympic Games will have a so-called "siphon effect" on the tourism industry of the host country and the host city, and will form a "pull" on the tourism industry. At the same time, the Olympic Games will also be accompanied by a "crowding out effect" on tourism. This effect will have a negative impact on the tourism market of the host country and the host city. The final tourism effect of the Olympic Games mainly depends on which of the above two effects is bigger and which is smaller, which is the net effect after the two effects are offset.
The tourism effect of the Olympic Games presents a certain periodicity and timeliness. Generally speaking, with the passage of time, the impact of the Olympic Games on the tourism of the host country has experienced an inverted bell-shaped parabolic trend from enhancement to peak and then to attenuation.
The Olympic Games will have a positive and great impact on the tourism development of the host country, China. Judging from the impact on inbound tourism, first of all, Beijing will be the biggest beneficiary of inbound tourism for the Olympic Games. The most direct effect of hosting the Olympic Games is the substantial increase of overseas tourists and their foreign exchange income in the host city, and Beijing's unique and remarkable comparative advantage will benefit Beijing's inbound tourism more obviously. Secondly, other parts of China will share the inbound tourism brought by the Olympic Games to a certain extent. The Olympic Games will still promote the inbound tourism activities in other parts of China to some extent. The Olympic tourism strategies formulated by some provinces and cities and the strengthening of their publicity and promotion will further increase the income of inbound tourism in other parts of China. Generally speaking, we believe that the Olympic Games will promote the surge of inbound tourists in China and greatly increase the foreign exchange income of the tourism industry.
From the impact on domestic tourism, first of all, the Olympic Games will bring more positive effects to Beijing. The net effect of the Olympic Games on the domestic tourism of the host city is more likely to be positive, but due to the weather, personal interests, personnel and the 2008 Olympic Games, the effect on Beijing's domestic tourism will be more obvious. Secondly, the hosting of the Olympic Games will have a positive impact on other areas of China except the host city. Generally speaking, the impact of the Olympic Games on the domestic tourism market of the host country is generally positive.
Bidding for and hosting the Olympic Games will have the most fundamental and important influence and function on the tourism industry, and greatly enhance the tourism brand image and popularity of the host country and city. A large number of tourism promotion activities launched by the tourism department will further enhance the brand image and popularity of China and Beijing. In addition, the Olympic Games will rapidly improve and improve the software and hardware level of the tourism industry. On the one hand, the Olympic Games has greatly improved the tourism infrastructure of the host country and city; On the other hand, the Olympic Games has greatly improved the level of tourism services. All these will have a great and long-term impact on the tourism industry in China and Beijing.
The Olympic Games will bring great development opportunities to hotels, restaurants, scenic spots, tourism services, exhibitions and other tourism-related industries. Among them, with the approaching of the Olympic Games, a large number of domestic and foreign tourists will come to China, especially Beijing. The sharp increase in passenger flow will significantly increase the occupancy rate and average house price of the hotel industry (for example, the average occupancy rate of hotels in Beijing is expected to increase to over 70% in the future, and the price of hotels will increase by more than 1.5 times), thus bringing huge business opportunities to the hotel industry, especially the hotel industry in Beijing. In addition, the Olympic Games has a strong role in promoting the convention and exhibition industry in the host city of Beijing. Because the Olympic Games will promote the upgrading of the hardware conditions of Beijing's convention and exhibition industry, it will provide Beijing with valuable attention resources, enhance the city's popularity, and provide new expansion space and brand space for the development of Beijing's convention and exhibition industry. We predict that the number and level of exhibitions held in Beijing before and after the Olympic Games are expected to achieve new breakthroughs. By 2008, the revenue of convention and exhibition industry will reach 654.38+02.52 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25%. After the Olympic Games, Beijing's exhibition industry is expected to maintain a rapid growth momentum of more than 30%, and the proportion of international exhibitions will be further increased.
The hosting of the Olympic Games will have a significant positive impact on the whole tourism industry, which will be of great benefit to almost all tourism stocks. Among them, BTG, CYTS and Beilv (Market Forum) are the first listed tourism companies to benefit, and they are the first beneficiary echelon. Listed companies located in other parts of China, such as Guilin Tourism (Quotation Forum), Huangshan Tourism (Quotation Forum), Emei Mountain A (Quotation Forum), OCT, Jinjiang Stock (Quotation Forum), Xi 'an Tourism, Xi 'an Catering, Jinling Hotel, etc., benefit from the second echelon.