Today, President Wang asked me to give a talk here. I wanted to report it well. People from the State Council Research Center drafted something so thick for me, but yesterday they sent me such a thick stack of documents. You can only change the file first, and you can only make it public first and then private.
I didn't come here today to give a report, but to bid farewell to and resign from the farewell party of the president of Tsinghua University Institute of Economics and Management. I was invited by Comrade Liu Da 1984 to become the dean. I didn't study economics, but I was particularly interested in management. I didn't know the level, so I agreed. But over the years, I have done nothing for the School of Economics and Management, and even my classmates can hardly see me. Am I really too busy with government affairs to meet my classmates? I feel guilty. I have brought four doctoral students and read their papers, but I really can't give any good suggestions. So I invited the best managers in the world and set up an advisory committee, hoping to help the growth of the School of Economics and Management. At the second advisory committee meeting, Merrill Lynch handed me a letter in private, saying that it was willing to donate $500,000 to the School of Economics and Management. I thought about it and found it unacceptable, because I asked them to make suggestions, not to charge them casually. I can't let foreigners say: China charges everywhere, and now even Qinghua charges. So I told President Wang and Secretary He that I was not a good dean and could not accept money.
I have had a lot of things since I became prime minister, so I have offered to resign as dean several times. But they always do their jobs and talk about roles, but I don't know what it does. I officially resigned as dean here today, and I also want to invite students from other departments present here to be witnesses, and Chen Zhili, Minister of Education, is also a witness. The secretary of the principal also considered what I said earlier and agreed to my resignation as dean.
What I told you today is all experience. I hope it's good for students. Don't spread it out or record it. If it is wrong, I can correct it. President Wang asked me three questions, one is the economic situation at home and abroad, the other is Sino-US relations, and the third is hoping to give some advice to my classmates and the School of Economics and Management. I can talk about each question for one day, so I can only talk about it selectively. Once you choose, it may explode.
I. Economic situation at home and abroad
Generally speaking, the international economic development trend is slowing down. It is predicted that the economic growth rate of the United States will be negative at the beginning of this year, and then it will be 1.3%, but the slowdown has not changed. Economic growth in Europe has slowed down significantly, and the euro is weak. Now 1 euro can only be exchanged for 0.85 US dollars. Japan's economy has been stagnant for ten years and there is no hope. Their problems are similar to ours. The banking system is chaotic and there are too many bad debts. Their big enterprises are a bit like our state-owned enterprises, with many problems. Anyway, there will be no turning point in the near future. Southeast Asia has not fully recovered from the Southeast Asian financial crisis, and their politics is very unstable. The king of Nepal and his wife were shot. I went there a few days ago and met their king. I have a good impression on China and I am sincere. I can't imagine that such a tragedy happened a few days later. Their country is poor, with a per capita income of $200. Kathmandu is similar to our county-level city, and the pollution is very serious.
Generally speaking, the world economic growth this year will be 2-3 percentage points lower than last year. When it comes to domestic economic development, we think the overall situation is good. Even foreign countries have to admit this, and The New York Times's editorial thought so a few days ago. They believe that China's economic development is unique in the world.
Last year, we achieved three years of extricating state-owned enterprises from difficulties. The so-called "extricating ourselves from difficulties" means that most enterprises with poor efficiency can start to make profits. In our countryside, grain reserves are increasing, but farmers' income is decreasing. This is a problem that needs our serious study. The most important thing for us now is to adjust the industrial structure in rural areas.
Someone asked: With the world economic situation slowing down this year, can we still guarantee the growth rate of 78% last year? I think there is no problem. When we made the budget last year, we had some considerations. Even though there are some difficulties, we can still finish it. Judging from the existing statistical data, the implementation of1-April was good. Although the results are worthy of recognition, we can't avoid the problem. The problems of agriculture, rural areas, farmers and the system reform of state-owned enterprises, which I attach most importance to, have not been solved.
In the first four months of this year, our GDP growth rate reached 8.3%, fiscal revenue growth rate was 28.8%, and state-owned enterprise income increased by 35.5%. We mainly rely on domestic demand, but foreign trade is also very important. Our GDP is 10 1000 billion dollars. Last year, the total import and export volume reached US$ 470 billion, which is quite a lot, including US$ 255 billion in exports and US$ 225 billion in imports. However, this year's export growth rate has dropped sharply. Last year, compared with the first four months of the previous year, the growth rate exceeded 30%. This year's growth rate is only over 10%, and Guangdong is only 0.9%. Moreover, the orders in the first quarter of this year were mainly from last year, so the whole economic situation may be high before and low after. But the problem is not big, because we mainly rely on domestic demand to promote economic development, and foreign trade has an impact on us, but it is not a fundamental impact. We hope that the growth of foreign trade will exceed the growth of GDP. After all, the world needs our products. Now it seems that we are fully confident of success in such an economic environment.
Our inflation problem was solved, and then deflation appeared, so we adopted a positive economic policy in 1997 and 1998, and it was completely successful, which was also a pioneering work in the world economic history. Our infrastructure investment is very large, and the amount of domestic demand is also very large. Now we have invested 2.5 trillion yuan, and completed 1.5 million. In the future, we will increase investment in the development of the western region. Our investment in water conservancy facilities is also very large. Now I can safely say, well, this is not very reassuring. It's hard to say whether there is a flood once in a million years. If it is only the biggest flood in the history of 1998, I dare say that the Yangtze River and the Yellow River are fine. Not only the infrastructure, but also our education. The investment in these years is unprecedented. Minister Chen Zhili is here, and she can testify.
We are now building many buildings everywhere, and repairing railways and highways everywhere. There are so many projects that I can't remember. A few days ago, the Minister of Railways and I went to see the construction of the Qinghai-Tibet Railway. I told him: you should build a road mainly for passenger traffic here and connect it with the Eurasian Continental Bridge. You should have a luxury train, build a five-star hotel in Lhasa, and take those who often have altitude sickness to Tibet, so that they can see Tibet now and Tibet before liberation, and let them stay in a five-star hotel without altitude sickness. As the prime minister, I am dereliction of duty. I haven't been to Tibet, and the doctor won't allow me to go. When the railway is repaired, I will go to Tibet. Needless to say, the future benefits of the large-scale development of the western region will at least drive the start of factories and the operation of machines.
Is it risky to do so? Of course there is no risk. Don't listen to the nonsense of those economists. There are so many US Treasury bonds that there is no risk. What's the risk of me sending so much? 2.5 trillion yuan will be profitable soon, and the fiscal revenue increased by 200 billion last year.
Now in addition to infrastructure to stimulate domestic demand, there is consumption. This year, 70 million to 80 million people traveled on May Day. Have so many people traveled in history? There are not many trips in the country. We have a population of 300 million to 400 million, and a quarter of them have traveled on average. Last year, "May Day" took a long vacation for the first time. As a result, the whole country was huddled up because of insufficient preparation. This year, they have done a lot of work without any problems.
We raised the salary of civil servants by 30% last year, and it will be longer this year. How can they afford to travel? Don't clap. It's none of your business. Oh, the professor can applaud, because the minister said that the professor has risen faster. Last year, I took 60 billion yuan to raise the salary of civil servants. This year can't have as much money as last year, and local governments don't spend any of it. The central government alone can't come up with so much money, but we still have to raise it. Raising wages can not only improve their living standards, but also improve their self-esteem and the enthusiasm of civil servants. The enterprise is growing faster than us, but it is a profitable enterprise. What about those who can't get a raise? We should maintain the living standards of low-income people through the social security system. Since I took office, I have made great efforts in the social security system. Without a complete social security system, it is impossible for a country to completely solve other problems such as state-owned enterprises.
China's economic growth can still be maintained at more than seven percentage points this year. Of course, we should be cautious and slow down the pace of some major reforms according to the existing situation. For example, the issue of "changing fees into taxes" in rural areas was piloted in Anhui Province last year. It was originally planned to be launched this year, and the central government is prepared to support it by 20 billion yuan. But now it seems that there are still problems to be studied, especially the compulsory education in rural areas can not be guaranteed. At present, a large part of grassroots finance is spent on compulsory education, of which 50% is at the county level and 80-90% is at the township level. If there is no good way to solve the financial support of rural compulsory education, the rural "fee to tax" can not be well implemented. We are now prepared to let the rural areas only charge tuition and miscellaneous fees and books, not so high, and we must strictly control the education fees.
The second is to establish a social security system. Without a sound social security system, the reform of state-owned enterprises cannot be solved. There is a saying that state-owned enterprises, one person to do, one person to watch, one person to make trouble. Now, if they want to reform, they must ask two-thirds of them to leave. Where do you want them to go? At present, Liaoning is conducting a pilot project to establish a social security system. Originally, a large pilot project was prepared, and several cities were found in each province. Now every province is looking for a pilot city. The third is the mother of adding and withdrawing cases. The current problem is that the oil price is too high, 28-30 dollars/barrel, compared with 25 dollars/barrel last year. So it was originally scheduled to be implemented in the second half of the year, but now it seems to be postponed. Because you have changed, the price of gasoline is so high, but people will still set up checkpoints and charge. What should I do? There will be no major problems in the economic situation next year. However, our ideological constraints are still very severe. For example, in rural areas, we have always said that "food is the most important thing for the people", but we cannot emphasize it too much. Our problem now is that there is too much food. I took hundreds of billions to build a warehouse, but even if I put it in the warehouse, it is still moldy. But some people still want farmers to grow grain. Farmers should be allowed to adjust their planting structure, plant a variety of trees and cash crops. Some people heard that farmers should be asked to modify their planting structure, so they should pull out wheat, plant potatoes and plant other crops tomorrow. What is this called adjusting the planting structure? ! ! If we plant more trees, farmers will become rich. We take out the grain in the warehouse for them to eat, just to return farmland to forests and improve the environment. Students, sandstorms in Beijing have become more and more severe in the past two years, and our water is in short supply. Miyun reservoir is now living on its laurels, and Guanting reservoir is too polluted. But we have mowed a lot of lawns. Can we afford them? In recent years, Tsinghua has made progress in everything except planting trees, which is far from the lush feeling when I 1947 came to Tsinghua. World-class universities, how can they do without trees? Tap water will be charged in the future, which is similar to mineral water.
We want all kinds of trees! ! !
Second, Sino-US relations.
With Bush coming to power, Sino-US relations are indeed undergoing adjustments and changes. Especially after the plane collision between China and the United States, Bush made several tough speeches. At present, China and the United States are in a relatively sensitive period. Our point of view is to calmly respond and observe. Generally speaking, Sino-US relations are neither bad nor bad.
Some people say that China depends on the United States because the United States is China's second largest trading partner. Last year, we had a surplus of $50 billion, a surplus of $230 billion in Europe, a deficit of $20 billion in Southeast Asia, a deficit of $20 billion in Taiwan Province Province and a deficit of120 billion in South Korea.
I think that if the United States stops trading with China, their inflation rate will rise by two percentage points immediately. They need our products, because we have the advantage of labor-intensive, which is unmatched by any country. A pair of brand-name sports shoes spent 12 dollars in China, of which 2 dollars arrived, and they immediately got the American flower 120 dollars. If there is no China, can they buy goods at such a price? Some people say that you are buying so many U.S. treasury bonds now. What if they freeze? I said that buying US Treasury bonds has the highest interest rate. At the beginning of the year, the interest rate was 6.5%, but now it has dropped to 4%, but it is still the highest. You can get back $78 billion in interest every year. What's wrong with it? Unless there is a war between China and the United States or a world war, will the United States dare to freeze? At that time, our foreign exchange abroad was 300 billion, but foreign investment in China was 500 billion.
Our problem now is to make more friends. Some people say that our government is too soft, but I think everything should be decided according to the situation at that time. Whether you are hard or not is related to your strength. You don't have the strength. Say a few tough words there and others will know that you are just bluffing. What's the use?
We have greatly improved our economic strength, especially our foreign exchange strength. The problem now is that we have entered a new stage of socialist market economy. We are not using foreign capital now, but foreigners are using our foreign exchange. Our main job now is not to introduce foreign capital, of course, not to say that we don't want foreign capital, but to introduce talents, management and knowledge. Of course, I hope that the introduction of talents is only a transition. I hope all of you here will grow up quickly and shoulder the heavy responsibility of building our country! ! !
Third, thanks and suggestions.
President Wang asked me to talk to you about my feelings. After thinking all night last night, I still want to talk about the problem of "being a man and learning". Zhang Mingtao, the old director of the Department of Electrical Engineering, once warned us that being a man is more important than studying. To be a man is to be a China person with backbone.
Tsinghua is not only a place to study, but also a place to teach and educate people. Tsinghua has a good tradition of democracy, science and revolution. I admire Mr. Zhu Ziqing very much and enjoy listening to him. Although he writes well, he can't speak. I admire his honesty and modesty. I still clearly remember Mr. Zhu Ziqing's speech in the same department, with beautiful voice and voice. We also like to sit on the floor at Mr. Wang's house and listen to Mr. Zhang talk about the world and scold the Kuomintang. I later became the monitor of the class and the president of the student union. I read a lot of books, and my belief in * * * was established at that time.
Speaking of study, frankly speaking, I am not a good student. I don't like engineering because I am good at English and like liberal arts. I always wanted to change my major, but I didn't. Some people say that it is right not to turn to engineering, because the country later attached importance to engineering. I was not the best in my class at that time, and I still clearly remember what my classmate Zhang said to me on the big playground. I said that I was the first in my class when I was in middle school, and now I don't study as hard as those who study hard in my class. Zhang told me: Before coming to Tsinghua, which one was not the first? The competition in Tsinghua is really fierce and there are many talents. There are three academicians in our class. Tsinghua has his own spirit. As for what this spirit is, you need to answer. My understanding is: pursuing perfection! ! !
Every Tsinghua people has a responsibility to build this country. In order to learn, we should be down-to-earth and not pursue fame and fortune; Do things aboveboard and don't fall behind.
I was not in party member for 20 years (1958- 1978), but in those days, I never gave up my faith. I haven't forgotten Tsinghua's education to me, and I haven't done anything that makes me feel guilty.
I am strict with my children. Although they didn't go to Tsinghua, they have the spirit of Tsinghua. When my second son was a teenager, he liked the balcony upstairs very much. One day, he took a rag, covered it with a layer of soil and prepared to grow vegetables. I asked him where he came from and slapped him in the face: no matter how poor we are, we can't take other people's things. My son told me that it was not someone else's house, but it was picked up from the garbage at the door of the Planning Commission (the unit where the Prime Minister works). I regretted it at that time, but because I insisted on my father's dignity, I still asked him to send the linoleum back: even in the garbage, I couldn't pick it up. I shouldn't have hit you I'll accompany you to send the linoleum back. So we walked from Sanlizhuang (the prime minister's residence may be wrong, and the tone at that time was that it would take a long time to walk to the planning commission) to the door of the planning commission and put it in the garbage. They also live up to expectations. Later, when I was mayor and vice premier of Shanghai, they went abroad to study, but no one knew that their father was in an important position. They spent their life studying abroad by washing dishes and working. Now they have all returned to China.
I have been the dean of the School of Economics and Management for seventeen years (1984-200 1), but I have accomplished nothing. The headmaster asked me to give some suggestions to the future college. I think that to build the School of Economics and Management into a world-class school of management, we must have first-class teachers. No, invitations, even lectures, require great efforts. Secondly, I hope all courses in the School of Management will be taught in English. I'm not worshipping foreign things, the world economy is globalized, and we need to communicate with the world! ! ! When I was in college, only general physics (Sabendong) was in Chinese, and everything else was in English. Professor Zhuang of thermodynamics is from Wuxi. He said that you can't understand my Wuxi dialect anyway, so use English.
President Wang said that if the dean doesn't do it, he will be the honorary dean. I said no, and finally became the honorary chairman of the advisory management Committee. Honor means whether you can come or not. I will never delay the operation of the advisory Committee.
I said goodbye to Tsinghua today, and I have rarely come since. To tell the truth, I've never been here. However, please rest assured that my heart will always stay in Tsinghua. I will be gratified by every achievement of Tsinghua, care about every difficulty of Tsinghua, and point out every deficiency of Tsinghua.
Goodbye, I will always be Tsinghua people! ! !