Undoubtedly, the behind-the-scenes push for RMB spot exchange rate approaching the down limit is the depreciation of the euro and the soaring US dollar index. Moreover, the sharp drop of RMB exchange rate in offshore market last Friday night and the weak performance of China PMI in June 5438+ 10 were the main reasons for the sharp drop of RMB spot exchange rate on the 2nd.

With the further strengthening of the US economy, the sustained strengthening of the US economy and the US dollar index is a relatively certain trend, and the pressure of RMB depreciation against the US dollar persists.

Not only that, the huge exchange difference at home and abroad is also an important reason for RMB depreciation.

The impact of RMB depreciation on real estate;

If the RMB depreciates substantially, the asset price bubble will burst, and the property market will bear the brunt, and the overall trend of real estate prices will inevitably fall. At the same time, the depreciation of RMB and the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve will undoubtedly add insult to injury to the real estate market. In the past, foreign capital entered China in anticipation of RMB appreciation. Assuming that the house price rises by 10% and the RMB appreciates by 3%, this two-way superposition can make foreign capital gain stably by 13%. However, with the devaluation of RMB, the enthusiasm of foreign investors will definitely be affected, so we should consider withdrawing from China. Then the loss of domestic and foreign capital will undoubtedly have a great negative impact on the China property market.

The impact of RMB decline on the stock market;

From the analysis of historical data, the trend of RMB and A shares is highly correlated in most cases. Every time the RMB depreciates, it is accompanied by the decline of A shares, or even a sharp dive. The reason is that, on the one hand, the depreciation of RMB leads to the decline in the valuation of local currency assets, which leads to the weakening of financial, real estate and other related sectors, thus dragging down the overall market; On the other hand, once the expectation of RMB depreciation is formed, it will lead to the outflow of hot money and the liquidity environment in which A shares are located will be tightened rapidly. If this phenomenon of hot money outflow continues, and the A-share market is currently in the bubble stage, then the space for the stock market to fall will continue to expand.