If it is. It should be the best time to gradually and orderly liberalize strict control and realize free exchange!

Since 20 15, China's foreign exchange reserves have exceeded $3 trillion. By the end of 65438+February in 2020, the scale of foreign exchange reserves will be $32165 billion, an increase of $38 billion compared with the end of1.2%, and it will once again stand at the 3.2 trillion mark.

In fact, considering that our foreign exchange reserves will indeed increase, the main reason is that China has increased its opening to the outside world and its activities in international trade have become more and more frequent. Therefore, in order to ensure the smooth progress of international settlement, foreign exchange reserves will also increase. With the increase of China's foreign exchange reserves, it may be easier for people to exchange foreign exchange.

What is the function of foreign exchange reserves? In fact, it is the four major functions. 1. Adjust the balance of payments to ensure external payment; Second, intervene in the foreign exchange market and stabilize the local currency exchange rate; Third, maintain international reputation and improve financing ability; Enhance comprehensive national strength and resist financial risks. If our future is an increasingly open economic system and it is directly integrated into the international market, then our foreign exchange reserves are indispensable, and more is a good thing. The scale of foreign exchange reserves should adapt to the scale of China's economic development, the degree of international openness and the level of economic activities.

But remember, foreign exchange reserves and dollar reserves are two different things. In China's foreign exchange reserves, US dollar reserves will indeed occupy a relatively large proportion. This is mainly because the US dollar is the global settlement currency and reserve currency, so China is no exception. We must also reserve US dollars. Because China has not explicitly announced the composition of foreign exchange reserves, we know that the largest monetary asset is the US dollar.

In 20 18, China announced the information of currency structure of foreign exchange reserves for the first time. The scale of China's foreign exchange reserves accounts for nearly 30% of the global foreign exchange reserves, of which the proportion of US dollars dropped from 79% in195 to 58% in 20 14, while the non-US dollar currencies rose from 2 1% to 42% in the same period, mainly in the currencies of major economies such as Japanese yen, British pound and euro. The currency structure of foreign exchange reserves is increasingly dispersed, which is more diversified than the global average. At the same time, it is calculated that from 2005 to 20 14, the average rate of return of China's foreign exchange reserve operation is 3.68%.

If we continue to promote the internationalization of RMB and the scope and stability of RMB are more and more accepted by all countries in the world, then our overall foreign exchange reserves will gradually decline (the United States theoretically does not need foreign exchange reserves now because it is an international currency), and when RMB becomes a global international currency, our foreign exchange reserves may drop to zero.

How much foreign exchange reserves are appropriate? But it is difficult to calculate now. Some people suggest that it is 10% of GDP. At present, China's GDP of 20 19 is 14 trillion US dollars. It seems that our foreign exchange reserves are a bit large. However, in our "14 th Five-Year Plan" development stage, the increase of foreign exchange reserves will bring stability to our international economic and trade situation.

Generally speaking, in the current unstable world situation, it is good to have more foreign exchange reserves.

In 2020, China's foreign trade situation began to improve in the second half of the year, with a fierce momentum. Both import and export growth data turned positive in June. Last month, exports in US dollars increased by 18% year-on-year. The data is very beautiful, setting an extreme value in the history of foreign trade. Mainly because of the epidemic situation abroad, we can't resume our work and production, so we can only import from China, the first big manufacturing country that basically controls the epidemic situation, to meet the needs.

Therefore, the proportion of China in global exports in 2020 12 months will greatly increase, from 14% to 16%. The total import and export volume in 2020 was 32. 16 trillion RMB, and in 2065 it was 24.42 trillion RMB in 438+02. Among them, in 2020, China's exports will increase by 3.6%, while its imports will decrease by 1. 1%, and its foreign trade surplus will reach a five-year high, reaching more than 530 billion US dollars in dollar terms, while its foreign exchange reserves will increase to 3.2 trillion US dollars without any substantial increase.

It is worth noting that China's foreign exchange reserves have been in a relatively stable range in recent years, hovering around $3 trillion. In other words, even if there is a large foreign trade surplus, China is deliberately regulating the total amount.

The huge foreign exchange reserves are self-evident:

1. Balance international payments and ensure external payments.

2. Adjust the foreign exchange market and stabilize the local currency exchange rate.

3. Maintain international reputation and improve external financing capacity.

4. Enhance comprehensive national strength and ability to resist risks.

Therefore, a certain accumulation of foreign exchange reserves can enhance national strength, strengthen the ability to resist external shocks and international settlement, and enhance international influence. However, excessive foreign exchange reserves also have some disadvantages, mainly reflected in the rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, which will bring about the increase of the central bank's base currency and may lead to inflation and asset prices. In the turbulent international financial market, the increase of foreign exchange reserves will also increase the difficulty of management. It may also attract more attention from the international community and trigger trade disputes or investment frictions.

At present, China is actively exploring and adjusting the management of foreign exchange reserves. The main ideas are: basically control the total amount, promote the basic balance of international payments, develop the foreign exchange market, diversify the allocation to reduce the proportion of dollars, revitalize the stock, and improve the efficiency of the use of existing reserves.

Foreign exchange reserves are not fiscal revenue or savings deposits, but a kind of national debt, so the more foreign exchange reserves, the better.

Because China's foreign exchange market has not been liberalized, foreign exchange cannot circulate freely in China. China's foreign trade surplus, foreign exchange loans and foreign companies' investment in China all have a large amount of foreign exchange flowing into China. These foreign currencies require the country to pay the corresponding RMB to the other party, and then store them to form foreign exchange reserves.

Countries need to pay RMB to each other. Where does the RMB come from? There are only two ways, one is to issue treasury bonds, borrow money from banks and other financial institutions or society, and the other is to print money.

Issuing national debt will increase national debt (sovereign debt) and increase debt risk. Printing money will cause the currency to depreciate. China's foreign exchange reserves of more than 3 trillion US dollars mean that 20 trillion RMB will be issued and put on the market.

Therefore, the more foreign exchange reserves, the better, and should be kept within a reasonable range. China's foreign exchange reserves account for about 20% of GDP, and most countries' foreign exchange reserves account for 5-8% of GDP. China's foreign exchange reserves are high.

All along, foreign exchange reserves are the most concerned topic. After all, as a big country, the amount of foreign exchange reserves directly indicates China's comprehensive national strength. However, the latest news is that China's foreign exchange reserves hit a new high in 20 16 years, reaching 3.2 trillion. How should we treat such a high foreign exchange reserve?

1.3.2 trillion foreign exchange reserves?

According to Zhongxin Jingwei, on10.7, official website 65438, the central bank, showed that at the end of February 2020, China's foreign exchange reserves stood at $3.216522 billion, an increase of $38.032 billion from the previous month. Wen Bin, chief researcher of China Minsheng Bank, told the Zhongxin Jingwei client that the change in valuation was the main reason for the increase in foreign exchange reserves in June 5438+February; In addition, actual trade and cross-border capital flows contributed to the growth of foreign exchange reserves this month. Overall, the scale of China's foreign exchange reserves remained relatively stable. In 2020, the scale of foreign exchange reserves will increase by US$ 654.38+US$ 008.6 billion, indicating that China's foreign exchange reserves have a relatively solid and stable foundation.

Regarding the reasons for the changes in foreign reserve data, Wang Chunying, deputy director and spokesperson of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, explained that in June 5438+February, China's foreign exchange market was generally stable and the market transactions were rational and orderly. In the international financial market, influenced by the progress of vaccines in COVID-19 and the monetary and fiscal policies of major countries, the US dollar index fell, while the prices of non-US dollar currencies and assets in major countries rose. Foreign exchange reserves are denominated in US dollars, and the amount increases after non-US dollar currencies are converted into US dollars. In addition, factors such as rising asset prices also have the same effect, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves increased in the month.

Wang Chunying pointed out that in the future, the world economic situation is complicated and severe, and the derivative risks caused by the epidemic can not be ignored. There are still many uncertainties in the international financial market. However, China's foreign exchange market has the conditions to maintain a stable and balanced operation, and the scale of foreign exchange reserves will also be generally stable.

Second, how to treat the record high of foreign exchange reserves?

It is perfectly normal for China's foreign exchange reserves to hit a new high. How should we look at this matter?

First of all, from the overall economic point of view, 2020 will be a very difficult year for the whole China economy. At the beginning of 2020, we experienced the impact of the epidemic. Under great pressure, we resisted the pressure and realized the improvement of the overall economy. We not only resumed production and work, but also achieved economic recovery, becoming the only economy that maintained positive economic growth under the unprecedented changes in the world in 2020. Therefore, it is normal for us to see that China's foreign exchange reserves have reached a new high, at least it is the final result of China's long-term sustained and stable economic development. Therefore, from a macro perspective, it is normal for foreign exchange reserves to hit a new high, which is the embodiment of the overall economy.

Secondly, from another perspective, when foreign exchange reserves hit a new high, will it be a good thing or a bad thing for China? Objectively speaking, the growth of foreign exchange reserves is both a good thing and a bad thing. Why do you say that?

First, from a good point of view, a country's foreign exchange reserves should at least deal with a country's ability to resist risks and the important ability of financial stability in the international market. We can see that during the Asian financial crisis, it was the Asian countries that were unable to resist the huge impact of the financial crisis because of their small foreign exchange reserves. The end result is that all countries in Southeast Asia have seen the phenomenon of currency market collapse. So at least the cases of Southeast Asian countries tell us that if a country's foreign exchange reserves are too small, it is a very big risk event, so it is absolutely impossible to have too few foreign exchange reserves. At least for a stable China finance, a certain level of foreign exchange reserves is actually very important. Therefore, when foreign exchange reserves fall on a large scale, we will be very alert to financial risks similar to those in Southeast Asia.

Secondly, from the perspective of bad things, I don't understand how China's foreign exchange reserves come from. In a sense, our current foreign exchange reserves are all China enterprises, which have gone through all kinds of hardships and gained bit by bit through sweat and efforts. It can be said that every penny of our foreign exchange reserves is hard-won, but the problem is that our foreign exchange reserves, in a sense, still exist in the form of dollars, but we must know that the dollar has its big problems. The dollar is just a kind of paper money, not a universal equivalent recognized by the world like gold. Therefore, under such circumstances, the central bank of any country has a tendency to increase economic growth by expanding the circulation of money, which is actually more obvious than other central banks. Therefore, when our foreign exchange reserves are all in the form of dollars, there will be great risks. If we are not careful, our hard-earned foreign exchange reserves may be lost through the depreciation of the US dollar.

Therefore, the current increase in foreign exchange reserves is both a good thing and a bad thing, and we must deal with it well.

Of course, this is a good thing. If I ask the question in a different way, the answer will be clear at a glance. At 1980, your bank deposit is 65438+ ten thousand. By 1990, the bank deposit was 200,000, and the deposit reached a new high. Is it a good thing or a bad thing?

The person who asked this question stared at American printed banknotes and China's wool and asked whether China printed banknotes. Do you think it is a bad thing to increase bank deposits because China prints money?

Returning to the essence, the status of the US dollar has a supporting system. First, American technology, even if there are 10,000 reluctant people in the world today, cannot be separated from American technology (Boeing, Apple, Microsoft, Tesla ...); The second is oil. At present, energy transactions are still in US dollars. If you want to get energy, you have to have a dollar reserve; Third, the army, a powerful army, is the reserve of dollars. Those who dare to move the status of the dollar are considering the attack of the US military.

Speaking of which, maybe China can only let dollars cut leeks? In fact, the country has been making adjustments. First of all, of course, rejuvenating the country through science and technology. It's better to lead the way so that you can't live without me than to live without you. The second is to break the status of dollar oil, establish a RMB oil settlement system, and settle in RMB along the Belt and Road to improve the internationalization of RMB; Third, of course, it is the progress of military power, defensive military, so that the United States only dares to shout, dare not start a fight.

Of course it's not good. The more reserves, the greater the impact of the dollar, leading to the RMB exchange rate pegged to the dollar, which was dragged down. Not too little. This takes into account the macro-observation ability of the national economy in order to make timely adjustments. Stability is easier said than done.

This estimate is mainly due to the exchange rate factor. Considering the depreciation of the US dollar, foreign exchange reserves should be diversified and reduced moderately.

This is a good thing. Any future conflict between China and the United States will be null and void.

Don't be reluctant to invest as soon as possible, especially in domestic science and technology, infrastructure, education, medical care and agriculture.